Brexit anybody?

Here’s what Goldman Sachs says a Brexit deal would do to British pound, U.K. stocks

September 30 this year


"Economists at Goldman Sachs say there’s a 60% chance of a Brexit deal, so the bank’s strategists examined what would happen to U.K. financial assets in such a scenario.


The pound GBPUSD+0.25% , they say, would push the pound to $1.30, versus $1.2319 on Monday.

It would also be a boost for U.K.-listed companies exposed to the domestic market vs. the broader internationally-oriented FTSE 100. The Goldman team found each one-percentage-point rise in sterling translates into a a one-percentage-point outperformance of its basket of U.K. domestic stocks relative to the FTSE 100 UK:UKX+0.07% .

The FTSE 100’s sales exposure to the U.K. was just 26% in 2017, compared with 51% for the midcap FTSE 250 UK:MCX-0.31% .

There would be a broader tailwind, too. Goldman’s economists say that by the end of 2020 a quarter of the cumulative GDP shortfall associated with the Brexit vote could be reversed with an agreed deal.

The FTSE 100 had a quiet end to the quarter, as it dropped 0.03% to 7424.30.

 

And the other 40 % ??? - and what are Goldman Sach's prediction of a 'no-deal' exit ???

 

Dollar against the Pound

So in 2013 before Brexit is was around 1.65 and now it’s gone down to around 1.20 and if there is a deal Brexit they think it will go up to 1.30

No great news is it.

[In 2007 before the economic crash it was around 2 dollars to the pound)

(Pound to Euro - 1.20 in 2013 on Oct 9th 2019 down to around 1.10)

Anyway

Analysts have long said a 'no deal' Brexit could push the Pound-to-Dollar rate down substantially, with many tipping the 1.10 level, although some forecasters are looking for a low of 1.15 while others have warned of a fall as far as 1.05. Gallo says the exchange rate will likely hit 1.20 in the near future, although he forecasts it at 1.16 by year-end and has been saying for a while that the most likely outcome of the Brexit process is a 'no deal' departure.

The Pound-Dollar Rate Could be On the Brink as 'No Deal' Brexit Looms

 

I guess the other 40% is either no deal or you dick around for another 3 to 8 months

 

Do you not realize the lower value of the pound is great for exports.

 

Leave means leave. Short term pain for long term gain.

I still have a strong suspicion that the EU is financing the remain movement and supporters. They will do ANAYTHING to prevent us from leaving.
Roll on the 31st.

 

And that is a very good point there Mayvern.
Why didn't I think of that?!

 

Even the intuitive idea that a falling currency is “good for the exporters” is less true than it used to be. It’s good for tourism, and the cottages of Devon and Cornwall will be looking forward to a real increase in the staycation trade.

But for manufacturing and services, in a world economy where exports are made out of imports, the benefits are short-term and small.

After all, if currency depreciation was the way to industrial success, Italy before the euro would have been the powerhouse of Europe. Before long, the market share gains are lost, input costs rise and all the industrial and political problems that caused the depreciation are still there. It’s not a viable means of managing a developed world economy; it’s more like the kind of painkiller that you don’t realise you’re slowly becoming addicted to. Guardian.

The UK's trade deficit - that's the difference between what we import and export - still persists . The gap is now £2.9bn - ie we spend £2.9bn more on imports than we make by selling goods and services abroad. That's because imports are also rising and they're rising faster than exports. This may seem odd because the fall in the pound should have made imports more expensive. Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, says UK imports are continuing to rise because companies have limited options. "As a household or a firm you have to take the price hit as there's little room for substitution," he says. "Clothing, for example, relies heavily on imports." When it comes to manufacturing, many businesses rely on imports for components, such as the car industry. Once assembled in the UK, these products are then exported abroad.

This means that the competitiveness boost the falling pound gives to exporters could be partially, or even wholly, offset by higher import prices. BBC

[my bold]

 

Well, no matter what happens over the next 20 days I think Labour has no chance of winning the next election, even if Boris flat out breaks the law or you do exit with no deal

They should have got rid of Corbyn after the last election, who hangs on to a leader that loses an election?

And since then, sitting on your hands, waiting for the best time he thinks he could be PM was a bad strategy

 

Johnson's proposed 'deal' 'lies dead in the water' before the boat has actually sailed towards Bruxelles.


https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2019/10/...y-deal-that-traps-northern-ireland-in-eu-a-a/

 

Based on the DUPs whole ten seats?

 

Most assuredly, since the scumbag 'nasty party' are a minority government and without the DUP don't have sufficient numbers in parliament to 'rubber stamp' the alleged 'deal'.

 

Oh! Ye of little faith Bad Vlad!
Soon you are going to have to chew on so many shite utterances, be careful you don't bastard choke!

 

"The deadline will come, and a deal will so pass
Though heaped with conditions - and so not last,
A General election will follow - a judgement to test
But see no clear majority - we'll remain in a mess"
IMO

 

Too early to say "I told you so", but given the latest DUP stance, it looks like Boris's plans on Brexit are a still born baby !!!

 

Its too early yet to say "I told you so", but it looks very much like Boris's proposed 'deal' will be a still-born baby.

https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2019/10/12/dup-deputy-leader-warns-mooted-brexit-compromise-cannot-work/

 

From the article you linked:

"The reported plan would create a customs border in the Irish Sea with goods travelling from the rest of the UK to Northern Ireland being subject to tariffs which Britain would collect on behalf of the EU.

Businesses would then be able to claim a rebate once they had shown the goods were for consumption in the UK market.

However it would mean that Northern Ireland would be able to benefit from any post-Brexit trade deals the UK struck with other countries around the world."

Isnt that what Balbus said, hard border on the UK ports side

I dont know Comrade Vlad, sounds like this is coming through from the EU side. And the Labour Party in the UK can vote against it at their own peril, because then if you do get a veto on the extension. Labour is screwed

 

(Sigh) Haven't you yet caught on, silly sod, the current proposed 'deal' has to be voted for in parliament. If the DUP oppose it as the link I gave you said they did, then the 'deal' is dead in the water

 

Grrr, why do you think I was talking about the Labour Party voting on it


Imagine a gif someone banging their head against the wall, cos I cant be bothered linking one