The end of cheap oil - what will you do???

Hubberts peak, often called Peak Oil, is the proven theory that oil fields have a rise in production and then a decline. It is the point between the rise and the decline that is the peak. The decline doesn't just mean a lower reserve on a field, it means that the oil flow slows and the cost of the extraction/mining increases. When the oil field is no longer economical to exploit, it is abandoned. This has been repeated countless times. To replace abandoned oil fields, new fields must be found. Unfortunately the peak in oil finds dates to 1962 and now, for every 4 barrels we burn today, only 1 new barrel is found. There's simply less oil being found, now more than ever.

Given the world burns up 82 million barrels of oil a day with that number increasing, we are now at the point where global supply can not match the demand and we're at the mercy of political tensions and terrorist attacks. This will deteriorate as the global reserves peak. The most optimistic peak date is 2015. Some claim the peak has already happened in 2000, others 2005, others 2008 and others 2010. Point is, this is happening in your life time and very soon.

The bottom line is we have no alternative energy sources to replace this oil. We're reliant on oil to carry the population of this planet and in the manufacture of over 70,000 industrial products. Oil is what drives 90% of all transport. Of all global energy use, 40% is oil. For the US, that 40% figure is the same for her energy needs. Of all oil used in the US, 17% of it is in agriculture as she is a food exporting nation.

Oil is the commodity on which all commodies are made. No oil, no food on the shelf. No medicines. No toothbrushes. No tyes. No hair spray. No chewing gum. No retainer to the economist who thinks money is the commodity. Nothing. Civilization as we know it will cease without cheap oil as there's no B-plan.

It is also projected that by 2010, oil will be $100 USD a barrel, if not by 2007. That means global depression. We are reliant on cheap oil to keep our economic structures intact because they are reliant on continuous growth. They can not survive as steady state structures. In other words, our economic systems will collapse. This will also see to the end of globalism.

The fall out looks dire, oil war between the major world powers is very likely. The geopolitical implications will dominate this quarter of the 21stC like no other before.

Now please, no "hemp will save the world" and we can make oil from coal or we can scrape hydrogen off the sun or we can put solar panels on the moon or we can make fusion reactors. I have read widely, there is absolutely nothing that will do what oil does and retain our economic structures. We simply haven't got a B-plan solution.
If you have sources that can turn this around, feel free to post them. Just don't post your opinion, I want sources.

True, at the absolute most, some nations will be able to brace to it, as they're blessed in geothermal (Iceland) or abundant hydroelectric (Norway) or they're culturally able to accept an austere life, like the Cubans. But for the vast majority of nations they are reliant on oil.

The hammer will hit hardest on the nations that are huge in fossil fuel energy per capita with large populations, such as the US. That means MOST people in Hip forums will be affected from the global economic implosion.

Sources to read.

http://greatchange.org/ov-thomson,convince_sheet.html

http://www.wolfatthedoor.org.uk/

http://dieoff.org/

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/fr...erlin_peak.html

http://www.aftertheoilcrash.net

http://www.peakoil.net/

http://www.endofsuburbia.com/

A free download of information. http://www.oilcrash.com/oilcrash.zip

Discuss:
What are your plans and how will you deal with the collapsing economy at your front door?

Remember, you can not change the world, but you can put yourself into a better position than the over whelming poverty mass of tomorrow.

 

I wish I could help, but my brain just exploded....

 

The U.S. govt has done almost nothing the past 15 years to encourage people to conserve and to set better fuel economy standards for cars. SUVs are classified as trucks, so they have low standards for economy.

The cheapness of oil in the 80s through mid 90s was due in part to conservation efforts in the 80s which put a glut on the market.

The problem will get worse as China continues to use more oil for industry and for cars, which are now becoming popular personal items over there.

The politicians in the U.S. have chosen not to address conservation and renewable energy sources because they are afraid to lose their support base in states that have a lot non-renewable energy such as coal and natural gas. Also, oil executives are running the current administration and makeing a nice profit off of high oil prices.

It will take another oil shock of the 70s to convince the politicians to act.

 

I already have a post on the end of the oil age,

http://www.hipforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22200

 

What will I do? Walk, ride my bike, plant a garden. What a crazy concept!

And don't ever again come to this forum and tell anyone not to post their opinion. I don't have sources to post here because I work for a living, therefore I do not have time to do your dirty work, you want the info, find it. And quite frankly I don't believe all of the bullshit I read, but I know for a fact that there is alternative energy, I see the sun rise every day, if you have trouble believing that people lived before oil, then you are the one who needs to prove it to me, not the other way around sweetheart.

Now are the Republicans making it more difficult for us to expand on the alternatives, most certainly, as a matter of fact the Democrats are as well, because again all either of them care about is there big fat bank accounts all of which revolve around oil. They will try to tell you (as you obviously believe) that the world will be nothing without oil. The only people who wouldn't survive without it are the ones who foolishly believe that we cannot survive without oil. Why do you think they are telling you this? Gee I can't imagine it will cause people to justify ripping down rain forests, drilling Alaska, and invading countries to steal oil. I mean if America is afraid it will run out of oil and we'll all die, Americans will do anything and support anything to survive. And they will do what is easiest, quickest and cheapest, not the right thing. My common sense is my source on that, if you don't like it, ignore it.

Spoiled American brats.

 

I believe that there will be an alternative fuel source discovered, most likely hemp. The reason we haven't found an alternative resource yet is because the powers-that-be have stifled all funding in that area. Sorry, I don't have any sources on this, this is just my opinion.

 

Sorry, double post....

 

The uh, I think basically that now, that peaking of oil will never be accurately predicted until after the fact. But the event will occur, and my analysis is leaning me more by the month, the worry that peaking is at hand; not years away. If it turns out I'm wrong, then I'm wrong. But if I'm right, the unforeseen consequences are devastating.
But unfortunately the world has no Plan B if I'm right. The facts are too serious to ignore. Sadly the pessimist-optimist debate started too late. The Club of Rome humanists were right to raise the 'Limits to Growth' issues in the late 1960's. When they raised these issues they were actually talking about a time frame of 2050 to 2070. Then time was on the side of preparing Plan B. They like Dr. Hubbert got to be seen as Chicken Little or the Boy Who Cried Wolf... – Investment Banker Matthew Simmons

^^^ very conservative fellow and that's his take! Yikes.

How will coal and alternative oil substitutes ensure we retain our economic growth?

That's the issue, not squeezing a few barrels here and there which have poor profit energy return comparative to crude. The issue is fundamentally about maintaining continuous economic growth or else there will be an inevitable collapse into recession and then depression. You can't honestly believe that the US economy will simply float along? The US economy is in shabby health and the end to cheap oil is a heart attack. Coal, tar sands and shales won't save ya.

After this November federal, regardless of who wins, the real prices of crude will make its true impact on the US economy, which will then reverberate throughout the Western world. There's been a lot of rumour with Bush doing deals with the Saudi's to keep gasoline prices down so he can get votes. Whatever the truth, don't bargain on prices at the bowser being better after November. It's getting close to $50 USD a barrel now!

Now unless someone provides the core data/stats/sources from qualified experts, such as geophysicists and proves the USGS figures are correct and sinks the argument by the ASPO, I will go with the current trends and facts from a myriad of solid sources that dictate we will slide inevitably to an economic depression, since cheap oil is ending. There will be no New Deal oil fueled B-plans, because there won't be the oil (and Kerry and Bush are not FDR).

For the folks that think this is all nonsense well ok, you've made your choice. I'm not stopping you from putting blind faith into the continuous growth economic paradigm, where economists will tell you a pizza guy will knock on the door when the prices of oil get too high. Nor am I going to shake your blind faith in silver bullet techno-fixes, such as the "hydrogen economy", which is not an energy source, but a wasteful carrier. I mean, you can put your head in the sand so you can get your arse kicked by the world.

For the folks that see the real writing on the wall, the point of this thread is to discuss what people's plans are in lieu of this coming economic crisis.

 

Run a Diesal Car off veggie oil mothaaafuckaaaaa

Peace and Love,
Dan

 

I've been drafting a letter to send to my rep to ask for a new bill to pass on increasing funding for alternative energy soucres.

 

I hope you realise you need to plant the garden before this happens.

 

What stock market choices do you think will do best?
Gold and silver did very well in the oil crisis of the 1970's, where as cash lost value to inflation. In fact they've both done very well on the stockmarket this year. No surprise, oil has been going up!

The safest bet is to physically have that gold and silver in your pocession. You can't trust banks, look at Argentina when TSHTF. Holding such valuables shouldn't pose a challenge to the pot people. You hold sums of cash and drugs, so it's much the same. At least no drug dog can sniff it out!

In all recessions, carrying debt is foolish. Interest rates rise, in fact that's started already in the US and soon will in Australia. Paying off debt ASAP is vital. Get off the credit cards immediately. The materialist gotta have it today attitude has to cease.

Equally, cash loses value so you can not rely on fixed term accounts (FTD's) because your coin will be gobbled at a rate faster than the interest given. You must market invest to retain your edge.

Have you thought about rural land with alternative power so you can evade the costs of living?

Heating will get more expensive. A rural block with a good source of timber means free wood heating. Food too will get more expensive so growing at least part of what you eat will make sense. Australians in cities in the Great Depression suffered to malnutrition, where as country people were in a far better way. I'm sure that happened in the US too. Put simply, you can't rely on welfare, you must rely on yourself. Moochers will have less to mooch on.

In addition, alternative power products will go up in price, namely due to scrambling demand but also because manufacturing will get more expensive as cheap oil will be history. However, alternative energy companies will make a good return initially on shares. The problem is, they'll finally fail because oil will get so costly on the invested projects that they're unlikely to see it through on profit return. The trick of course is selling your shares before such companies crash.

Rural land with permanent water and fertile soils may well go up in price as more people will realise that the city is simply a one way ticket to poverty. There's opportunity in that too where you could sell off part of your land at an inflated price or own a second property to do just that. With the extra capital you can then quickly establish your escape hatch block. Money will fast trek you if you've been lagging.

Some of the negatives (that may arise) could include a bandit culture with a black market generated on theft. This happened in the Great Depression and in the rationing of WW2. Only you can factor how dangerous it is where you are. Obviously buying rural near a large town/city wouldn't be wise.

Social control may increase, thus a greater police state to control food riots. Being in the city could be martial law sealed as time wears on. Worse, being in the city means an almost certain loss of the value on your equity. You'll be forced to sell off what city real estate you have before the trends set in too deeply or your sale will be le$$ than you hoped. Cities will become slums and potentially dangerous.

Indoor growing may come to an end by the end of this decade or even sooner. There may well be energy caps and monitored restrictions and heavy penalties if caught using the juice above what you're allowed, not to mention losing your liberty in such a time would be a disaster. I suggest you use your time now to GROW HARD!!!!

On the positives, you have a window period to plan. You also have an opportunity to make money. You will need to, long term investments you may have like super will vanish. If you're 30 years of age now, what do you think there will be in 2039 when you're 65 and want to collect? Bawwaaahhhhahaa. There will be nothing left for generation X, the baby boomers will see to that as they pull the pin and spark the big bank runs.

What constructive and positive steps have you or are you going to take to make your future more comfortable than the mass? I want to hear your ideas.

 

LOL ok I have to plant a garden, before the world ends because we are going to run out of oil. Because ummm before oil was a traded comodity, no one was able to live. Holy shit, whatever did they do.

If in fact, I do have to plant a garden before this were to happen, you yourself said that we have got plenty (of course that is subjective) of time to do so. LOL, but I've already got a garden, and guess what comes from the fruit and veggies... seeds, so they can reproduce, holy shit, what the fuck is that all about. As a matter of fact, you are so damn worried, why are you in here on the computer, why aren't you out there digging in the dirt planting away? Start now and you won't have any problems when we "run out of oil". And if I do have to plant a garden now it is because there isn't much of nature left, because stupid people like you and politicians would rather rape the land of all of its naturally occurring resources and attempt to make money off of them until there is nothing left, then they go into other countries and steal it from them. So on and so forth. Then you wonder what we will do when it is gone, and refuse to believe that we could live off of something else. In the end, it will be only the extremely wealthy who have all of the money to buy anything they need, including power, and those of us who know that there are alternatives and know how to survive on basics and be innovative enough to figure things out for ourselves, like planting a fucking garden and walking instead of being so selfish to believe that you are "entitled" to drive a car everywhere.

I don't know why you refuse to understand that the sun is going to come out, whether we have oil or not, and it will still rain. Nature still continues to thrive, no matter how much you people try to kill it off. And guess what, the air will actually be clean, and most likely there will be less pollution.

But believe what you want or what they want you to believe. Hell go out and stock up on barrels of oil for all I care.

 

How am I to respond to such drivel ^^^^. Your post made no sense, and now you're telling me how to garden. Amusing to say the least, considering I live on a 250 hectare farm ...yes, a rural property with an orchard on it. I also live in a state in Australia that is least likely to suffer to climate change, aka drought plaguing the mainland. It's hydroelectric, only half a million people, fertile, temperate, good precipitation, lots of permanent fresh water, virgin forests, abundant fish stocks and agricultural. Well away from the Northern Hemisphere troubles. Fortressed off by a savage sea.
Funny thing is - I drive a Toyota Prius. It does 50-60MPG. SUV's on the otherhand do 10. Everyone wants to be cool in their bling though. Silly people in LA (read big cities) who drive their SUV’s all alone on city streets in stop and go traffic and stop at skcubrats for a three dollar cup of coffee... silly consumerism. Wouldn't it be a site to see all the trendy LA losers walking up highway 80 in search of food like human locusts.

You don't get it do you. Unless there's a ready source of energy per capita and capable of increasing in rate to the population, then the population can not be sustained. The danger of that is two fold, A.) perish or B.) go to war to get the resources to make up the shortfall.

Now who's the guy who used the most and has the biggest military? umm. and if there's any small guys doing the right thing, they'll get bashed and looted.

Listen, the 1973 oil crisis...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_energy_crisis
....shook the world and it took the better part of the rest of the 1970's to recover when the oil came back on. Then another oil crisis (again politically caused) in 1979.

What did the US learn, well they booted out Carter because he wanted to go down the path of conservation and alternatives. No prez in the US will be popular denying Americans the American way of life. Not all Americans agree with the outrageous energy/resource use, but they're not the folks calling the shots nor in a majority to persuade some sensible stewardship.

I'm sorry, but the over all energy (from all sources) per capita of the human population, has peaked in 1977. http://www.mnforsustain.org/oil_dun...uvai_theory.htm

Oil peak is not "just a negative spike coming down the road".

You don't get it. There will be only two classes. The elite and the mass of poor. Nothing in between, bar those that sought their own B-plan. Whether the elite want all those poor, who knows? There won't be much in the way of human rights to protect them *understatement*.

The waste goes on. 20 year low in US fuel efficiency. http://www.eceee.org/latest_news/20...20011010b.lasso

Since 2001, the SUV tax break caper has come in, hardly a trend to efficiency. http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos...1-20-suvs_x.htm

Listen cutelildeadbear, the US uses up near one quarter of the world's oil and is only 4% approx. of the 6.3 billion population. When the rest of the world wants in on that development (which they do), where do you think that's coming from?

Without petrochemical agriculture there wouldn't be this population bomb. Oil facilitated the green revolutions. Simple as that. And yes, once oil becomes no longer cheap, there will be a shortfall on agricultural production. That's what caused the starvation in North Korea, a lack of diesel fuel to plough the fields.

 

Actually interest rates go down in recessions, they go up during periods of inflation, which is what happened in the 1970s. In times of inflation and rising rates, its good to have fixed rate debt and floating rate assets.


Something tells me your were writing the same sort of smug survivalist posts telling everyone how you were going to be A-OK on your farm while all us city dwelling fools were doomed by the millennium bug.

 

Ok Chicken Little,
I do get it, as a matter of fact, for those of you who can read, I said there will only be two classes, those of us who know how to farm and take care of ourselves and those who have the money/power to buy shit from us or take over other countries. If you have already got a farm, why are you so concerned. If you already know this is happening, don't you think the government has some inkling? I mean do you honestly believe that they are completely oblivious. They have something planned, it would just not make them the most money at this point so they are going to use up all of the oil that they can until they have to do something differenly, but if Bush has a solar house in Texas the I'm pretty certain people know what is happening. Now, do I think they don't want us to know what is happening, why of course they don't want us to know! If we know, and do something about it, they won't be holding all of the cards now would they.


And don't compare me to some idiot who lives in LA that you see on tv or read about, I'm not those people. I live in Delaware, there is no city here. The whole state is a fucking farm and the whole state is only about the size of LA. If I could afford a Toyoda Prius, I'd buy one, unfortunately I don't have that kind of money, so I use public transportation, my bike, and the legs that Mother Nature gave me to get somewhere. I have a car that I use for long trips, it is a Honda Civic, it gets about 35mpg. I don't use it regularly, because I live close enough to everything that I don't neeed to. Don't assume you know everything about me, because you don't. I'm not the spoiled brats here in America who think that they need to go on ski weekends, and need to drive big fancy cars, or that they are entitled to things being easy for them. I grow my own veggies, and fruit, we compost and recycle, use as little electricty as possible and live quite simply compared to most others here. I'm a nature girl, always have been. It is quite ironic, that you find it amusing that I had no idea that you lived on a farm, you obviously have no idea how my family lives. My inlaws are in the process of selling their farm in Virgina and buying a larger one in North Carolina so we can have more land for a larger farm and where all of the children can come raise their families in a commune. That is how they have lived their entire lives with huge families all together growing and making everything they need, and raising animals to eat and that is what they plan to continue to do, and I as well.

I don't disagree with you in the least bit that we are going to run out of oil, I knew it wouldn't last forever, but I do believe that many of us will be able to survive without it. And I know that there are alternative forms of energy, I don't need proof, because I know the sun rises every day (that is one source). I don't need a president or government to tell me about it. That is the question I thought you were asking, what we are going to do about it when it happens. You were also discussing the economy, and quite frankly, the economy isn't what I would be concerned about. Maybe the government needs to be concerned about the economy, but I cannot control it or fix it so I'm not going to sit around and worry about it until I make myself sick. That wouldn't be very productive.

This place is overpopulated anyway, I don't know why you would want to increase the population if we haven't got enough resources to take care of who is already here. Maybe we need a decrease in the population. I'm just not going to get all freaked out about it when we don't even know what is going to happen or when. I've got enough conspiracies to worry about. Most certainly I would love for our government or others to start looking into alternatives forms of energy, which is why I would rather have someone like Nader running our country as opposed to people who are more influenced by money and power, but there is only so much I can personally do sweetheart. Don't get all pissed off at me that this is happening, I have very little to do with it. I do my part. That is one of the problems, not everyone is doing his/her part, the government, and spoiled Americans who think that they are entitled to everything and responsible for nothing. The world might change when we run out of oil, or have to rely on something else, I personally believe change is good, and for me the idea of everyone getting back to basics is actually more exciting than all of this fancy technology crap that we have now. Then perhaps it won't be 50 degrees in August and 90 degrees in February here!

PS. It is my opinion that Carter was the best president we have had, but I wasn't around to have much say in that so I can't help that they didn't start looking for alternative energy before.

 

Umm, I think I love you cutelil. Seriously though I do appreciate your opinion, and don't really think that you or I differ a great deal in our thinking. Thanks for your contributions. I think you are very fortunate to be living in a rural area like Delaware. Glad to see you're doing your bit. What was all the hostility for initially??? You scared me....lol.

> I see the sun rise every day, if you have trouble believing that people lived before oil, then you are the one who needs to prove it to me, not the other way around sweetheart.

Whether people lived before oil is not at all the issue. Population dynamics and the foundaton of societies are now much different than they were in the preindustrial era, and the only way in which the present paradigm can continue is with a constant supply of cheap oil.

> why aren't you out there digging in the dirt planting away? Start now and you won't have any problems when we "run out of oil".

1) The problem is NOT running out of oil. That will never happen. The problem is running out of cheap, easily-obtainable oil, which is the basis of our society.

2) Having fruit and vegetables covers only a small part of the problem. A 9-digit number of angry, starving, desperate people just may render lots of gardening moot.

> In the end, it will be only the extremely wealthy who have all of the money to buy anything they need, including power, and those of us who know that there are alternatives and know how to survive on basics and be innovative enough to figure things out for ourselves, like planting a fucking garden and walking instead of being so selfish to believe that you are "entitled" to drive a car everywhere.

Yeah, that's a possibility. But, the span of time between the beginning of the hard decline and the emergence from the smoke you describe above might get pretty fucking interesting, especially in areas of high population density.

Here's one of the nails in the coffin - unlike other first world nations, the USA insists upon allowing her population to grow exponentially while other nations actually have declining populations. Here goes the wretched effects of the right wing and their fucking religions, crusades against abortion, birth control, and even sex education. The mayhem these people are bringing upon us is beyond words.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
US Population Forecast To
Boom 43% By 2050
Melbourne Herald Sun
8-18-4

(AFP) -- Taking super-sizing to new levels, the US is heading for a growth spurt that will see its population boom 43 per cent by 2050.

Most rich countries are ominously down-sizing, spelling major changes in world economics and lifestyles.

But the US is bucking the trend. Its population of 293.6 million is expected to blossom to 419.9 million in the next 45 years.

Australia will be following in moderation, rising from just over 20 million to a robust 26.3 million in the same time span.

In contrast, Europe's rapidly ageing population will drop by 8 per cent, a US research institute said yesterday.

Europe has 728 million people and will pull back to 668 million, according to the Population Reference Bureau.

Possibly the biggest shock will be felt in Japan. The world's second-richest country will shrink by a dramatic 21 per cent, from 127.6 million people to 100.6 million.

A real boom will happen in some of the poorest and most unstable nations.

India will leapfrog China to become the world's most populous country.

At least an additional 1000 million people will live in the world's poorest African countries by 2050. Violence-struck Nigeria is expected to more than double its numbers to exceed 300 million people.

And two war-ravaged nations will experience a huge population boom.

Afghanistan's population will nearly triple, from 28.5 million to 81.9 million, while Iraq's will more than double, from 25.9 million people today to 57.9 million in 2050.

"Nearly 99 per cent of all population increase takes place in poor countries, while population size is static or declining in the rich nations," the Washington-based research institute said.

"Among the major industrialised nations, only the United States now has significant population growth," it said.

© Herald and Weekly Times

http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,10488715%255E663,00.html
--------------------------------------------------------------------------



The alternatives are not bogus, they work but will not deliver the btu at the price of cheap oil so our economic structures will frag.

Seriously, the trends towards them are not happening. Compare the US money on Iraq and Afghanistan and increasing. They're not investing to alternatives. The real money is on securing oil reserves because they know their close to decline. Mathew Simmons was the energy advisor to Bush and Cheney 2001, the Bush crew know about oil peak. It is without question a motivating factor of their energy securing global strategy. So not only does the US have control of Iraq's 9% global reserves, they also have a Middle East base to grab the 30% of Saudi Arabia and the 8% of Kuwait. Toss in a likely draft for Iran and Syria, both have reserves too. The US allies get some barrels too.

That said, I'm not the one who is flipping this subject off to subjects about how the govt and the private enterprise will save us. Nor am I putting forward that oil peak is nonsense. Most of this thread has been dealing off the self-denial crowd who cite no sources or sources that sadly get bunked as utopian. I say sadly, because I'd truly like to see a really positive trend. But I'm a realist and I can only go on the facts. Yes, I know the news sucks, but deal with it or don't chime in or there's more off-topic bloat.

On the positive side I was hoping this thread could jump straight to subjects on alternatives energy applications for personal use. Aquisition of old strains that are not F1 and F2 so they continue to self true to type. Permaculture and aquaculture. Grafting of fruit trees. Distillation of one's own fuel and/or making one's own bio-diesel. People's plans on stockmarket shares in the coming recession ect. People's own B-plans. That's hope, real hope.

Still, I think this thread was worth it. Maybe a few got a reality check that the age of cheap oil is coming to an end and what it will mean.

 

LOL most people do love me... the idea will grow on ya.


I was hostile toward you because you stated for people not to post their opinions, but that you wanted all of these facts. You seemed quite high and mighty saying that you didn't want to hear anything about hemp saving the world (which I never once considered as an option).

I bet you we actually agree on a lot though, I wasn't really arguing with what you were saying, I was just thinking to myself, "what the hell do you mean what are we going to do", like you expected people to come on and tell how they've built bomb shelters and stuff. Guess I was reading into it wrong.

See as I believe in living simply, I also don't believe in getting all caught up in worrying about things that I just don't feel like I have the power to change. That is why half of this country is on prozac, because they try to control everything. Sure I want alternative energy sources to be found, and I think the government should be supporting that now, not later when it is too late. I just don't have the answer to save the world is all.

LOL, at the end we came to the same conclusion, there are simply too many people. And, how ironic, I blame the republicans for that too.

 

I apologise for the initial quite arrogant missive. I can see how it could be construed as such. I don't want to seem a thug. I'm sure there are people out there who will take personal affront at my effrontery, and that's cool.

It gets real thin to suffer the drivel from stoners bereft of facts claiming how hemp will save the world and getting more shrill the more often they're dismissed as lunatics.
Hemp for fuel? How many gallons to the acre will it make? How many gallons will you lose to the acre in growing it? How many gallons to the acre can you get per annum? How many gallons do you lose delivering it to the bowser? Do they ask themselves where 17 million US barrels go a day and why the number is so BIG? Do these guys ask themselves that before they post that Jack Herer copy/pasted "hemp will save the world" spin, the very spin dreamed up on an LSD trip. Fuck me.

If I lived in Delaware we could be walking buddies....lol.

A step in the right direction :

GAS GUZZLER TAX
Unadjusted MPG(combined)* Tax
at least 22.5 No tax
at least 21.5, but less than 22.5 $1000
at least 20.5, but less than 21.5 $1300
at least 19.5, but less than 20.5 $1700
at least 18.5, but less than 19.5 $2100
at least 17.5, but less than 18.5 $2600
at least 16.5, but less than 17.5 $3000
at least 15.5, but less than 16.5 $3700
at least 14.5, but less than 15.5 $4500
at least 13.5, but less than 14.5 $5400
at least 12.5, but less than 13.5 $6400
less than 12.5 $7700
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/info.shtml#guzzler

Source^^

"The Energy Tax Act of 1978 established a Gas Guzzler Tax on the sale of new model year vehicles whose fuel economy fails to meet certain statutory levels. The gas guzzler tax applies only to cars (not trucks) and is collected by the IRS. The fuel economy figures used to determine the Gas Guzzler Tax are different from the fuel economy values provided on this web site and the Fuel Economy Guide. The tax does not depend on your actual on-the-road mpg, which may be more or less than the EPA published value. The purpose of the Gas Guzzler Tax is to discourage the production and purchase of fuel inefficient vehicles. The amount of any applicable Gas Guzzler Tax paid by the manufacturer will be disclosed on the automobile's fuel economy label (the window sticker on new cars). "

Too bad SUV's are not taxed, in fact, because of a farmers incentive to buy tractors people who buy hummers (not BJ's) get tax breaks because their ride is so heavy.

Now if we cut the oil consumption by two thirds the peak would be held off for 20 to 25 years, so I have also read. Sadly the "power down" won't happen.

Read this article and you'll see the problem. Tax breaks for SUV's are way better than hybrids. Hybrids cost $2000 to $3000 more so when you crunch the gasoline out, why bother? Not to mention gasoline in the US is not taxed BIG to force Americans to hybrids and smaller cars. Point is, the trend to these silver bullet techno-fixes ain't happening. I can only go with trends and facts.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3749377.stm

Environment drives Hummer vs Hybrid row

By Maggie Shiels
In California


"Black beauty": Craig Fruchter defends his Hummer sports vehicle



The Hummer is regarded as the Goliath of vehicles but the 8600 lb king of the road is the car everyone loves to hate.

And with petrol prices topping a record breaking $2.55 per gallon in California's environmentally conscious Bay Area, Hummer drivers are regarded as public enemy number one.

Men's fashion designer and manufacturer Craig Fruchter stumped up around $54,000 for his "big black beauty" in December of 2002. He admits his Hummer H2 is drawing more heat than usual as he clocks 11-13 miles per gallon on the freeways north of San Francisco.

"I have people flipping me off all the time but because I'm from New York, I get my ya-yas out that way and I get to flip 'em back."

Industry experts say a massive switch to smaller cars or Hybrids will only happen if petrol supply is disrupted or prices hit $5-a-gallon

Craig says while friends back east are "very chill" about his luxury Hummer, which is based on the military Humvee workhorse, people in northern California aren't quite as tolerant.

"Everybody here claims to be more environmentally aware but really they're more hypocritical because the people that give me trouble about the Hummer are driving Range Rovers, Excursions and Suburbans, which drive 15-20 miles per gallon.

"People like to get behind symbols and it's scary that they get behind hating Hummers."

This symbol of road-hogging prowess, more than any other, certainly seems to bring out a visceral reaction.

Slogans sprayed

In one of the most extreme examples, a group called the Earth Liberation Front caused $1m worth of damage setting Hummers on fire at a California dealership late last year.

The group also claimed responsibility for spray painting slogans such as "Fat, Lazy Americans" on sports utility vehicles at other dealerships in the state.

Figures from trade magazine Automotive News seem to suggest soaring petrol prices could be affecting sales of these so-called gas-guzzlers.


Hybrid: Russell Long's car runs on electricity and petrol


While sports utility vehicles (SUVs) remain the nation's top selling car, sales are sluggish with a disappointing 4.1% increase for the year. Hummer sales also declined by 21%.

At the other end of the scale, the Hybrid is enjoying its moment in the sun. The profile of this dual petrol-electric powered car which boasts 40-60 miles per gallon has been boosted by celebrity owners including Tim Robbins, Susan Sarandon, Leonardo Di Caprio and Cameron Diaz.

Driven by environmental concerns and the rise in the cost of petrol, American registrations for Hybrids rose over 25% to nearly 44,000 last year. California ranked number one with nearly 11,500 new hybrid drivers.

Among them is environmental director Russell Long who lives in San Francisco and paid nearly $20,000 for his Prius just three months ago.

"I bought the car because I get terrific fuel mileage and as an environmentalist, I want to do everything to break the nation's oil dependence," he told BBC News Online.

More expensive

While record petrol prices help fuel incentives to go Hybrid, the numbers don't add up.

The director of the University of California's Energy Institute, Professor Severin Borenstein claims: "It still costs two or three thousand dollars more to buy a Hybrid and if you do the calculations of how much you would save on gasoline over the life of a car it's unlikely you would ever actually cover your costs."

For Russell Long that's not the issue. "If petrol was 10 cents a gallon I would still buy a Hybrid. Guys who drive Hummers need to understand those vehicles are symbolic of what is wrong with this country."


Professor Borenstein: Petrol prices not an issue for Hummer owners

Professor Borenstein says for Hummer drivers, the cost of fuel at the pump is most likely not a big deal. "Someone who has spent $50,000 to buy a Hummer, and in some cases more than that, probably isn't that sensitive to spending another $500-$1,000 a year on gasoline.

"If they were, they probably wouldn't be buying the Hummer in the first place."

Craig Fruchter says what counts more is the government's tax credit of up to $100,000 for vehicles weighing over 6000 lbs.

"I looked at the vehicles at the time and there was about four or five that fit the bill. There was the Range Rover at $75,000 and the Mercedes at $75,000 and so at a base sticker of around $50,000 and being able to write it off mostly and use it for work I thought it (the Hummer) was a good deal."

Hybrid sports vehicle

The Hybrid tax credit isn't quite as lucrative, totaling $1,500 for this year and declining 25% a year until it's phased out.

At the moment three Hybrids dominate the marketplace but still account for less than 1% of nearly 17 million vehicles sold in the US.

Auto makers are planning to roll out more than a dozen Hybrids in the next year while the first Hybrid SUV, built by Ford, started a promotional tour through the country last week.

Meanwhile industry experts say a massive switch to smaller cars or Hybrids will only happen if petrol supply is disrupted or prices hit $5-a-gallon.

<<Sigh>>

 

sup gangsta! I don't find you to be thugish at all, we just got our wires crossed.

The other problem with the hybrid electric cars is that no one really knows how to work on them yet. My boyfriend does a lot of work on import cars and when I told him that I wanted to get a Prius (back when they had just come out) he said that was an excellent idea, but there aren't too many mechanics, and all of the glitches haven't been worked out yet. Hopefully, as they become more popular more mechanics will surface. And hopefully the price will drop.

Now hemp for fuel, I don't think that would work, as a matter of fact I never considered it. Hemp for paper or clothes, sure, but not fuel, simply doesn't make sense. That would be like trying to run a car on cotton balls.

And the SUV tax, well, I've been saying that for years. Of course they should be taxed. When I get to see tv (I don't have tv) I cringe at the Hemi commercials. They make me sick.