by this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhlc7peGlGg I always thought for sure I knew the answer to this...I was wrong.
But now the more I think about it...I think it's an instance where mathematically, there IS a conclusive answer. But it won't reflect in reality. Like, mathematically the answer described in that video is 100% correct, but if you actually conducted trials over time it wouldn't matter at all whether or not you switch.
I'm still wrapping my mind around it; considered even presenting the problem to my coworkers, but they'd think i was crazy (if they don't already do). I suck at math, which doesn't help...
At first I thought that it was a flaw in math, so to speak. Like in mathematical terms it's correct, but it would never reflect in reality. But they said you could reproduce the results using playing cards...unfortunately I'm too lazy. Anyone wanna try it? There was also another example of this problem that seems to show how it IS valid. Instead of 3 doors, you have 100. 99 goats, and 1 car. You make your selection, then the host opens up 98 doors revealing all goats. All that's left is your initial pick, and one unopened door. In THAT case, switching would certainly give you a higher chance of selecting the car...something like 98 to 1 in favor of getting it instead of 1 out of 100.
Anybody know algebra? a = b a2 = ab a2 - b2 = ab - b2 (a + b)(a - b) = b(a - b) (a + b) = b b + b = b 2b = b 2 = 1 This is just a mathematical illusion, but with the goat I think you're better off switching. Think about it, you have a choice of 3 doors. It doesn't matter where you place the car, switch. Say the car is behind door #1. You pick door #1 - they reveal a goat behind #2 - you switch and lose You pick door #2 - they reveal a goat behind #3 - you switch and win You pick door #3 - they reveal a goat behind #2 - you switch and win Say the car is behind door #2. You pick door #1 - they reveal a goat behind #3 - you switch and win You pick door #2 - they reveal a goat behind #1 - you switch and lose You pick door #3 - they reveal a goat behind #1 - you switch and win Say the car is behind door #3. You pick door #1 - they reveal a goat behind #2 - you switch and win You pick door #2 - they reveal a goat behind #1 - you switch and win You pick door #3 - they reveal a goat behind #2 - you switch and lose With switching you have 2 chances of winning whereas if you don't switch then you only have 1 chance.
you know there's something when wrong you post a video about maths in a myspace bulletin at 5am that you found in a forum about drugs oh my:birds: the child my parents have raised
