Predict the Future

1. Who is president?

John McCain (Republican) will be elected President (by a small margin, say 1%), by taking the key swing states away from Barack Obama, through appeal to blue collar moderates.


2. Where is the S&P 500 (index level or % change from today) (S&P currently 1,288 for reference)?

I'm not an economist...and don't know what S&P is, so whatever.


3. Where is the $/Eur (value or % appreciation/depreciation of DOLLAR vs today) (for reference it is about $1.57/Eur 1 today)

Again, I'm no economist, so don't know

4. What is the price of a barrel of oil (% change or $ value, today it is pretty close to $110/barrel)

The price of oil will relatively stay the same, and will probably rise a bit, now the price of gay will climb. I expect by summer 2008 it will be 1.50 / Litre here in Canada, and it will average out in the 1.40 range after the summer driving season.


5. What is the price of an ounce of gold (% change or $ value, today it is about $1,000/ounce)

The price of gold will continue to gradually increase, making jewlery more expensive/valuable

6. Have we attacked Iran? Yes/no.

No. The rhetoric will always be there, but there will be no military conflict with Iran in the next year.

7. How have civil liberties changed? Give some specific examples, no vague ranting.

I think the civil rights will generally lax back to be a little more liberal under John McCain. He has said he is against torture as interrogation techniques (and he of all people should know considering his Vietnam P.O.W. experience), so I believe there will be a symbolic closing of Guantamano Bay, or at the very least parts of the USA-PATRIOT Act will be repealed, and torture practices will be ended. Gay marriage will never be federally mandated, but I believe maybe one or two more states will join Masschetuses in getting it, and more states will at least get civil unions/domestic partnerships. So generally I think the future will be positive for civil rights.

8. What is the unemployment rate? Currently it is 4.8%.

The U.S.A. will finally stop the bullshit with wording, and realize they are in a recession, and unemployment will go up. I'd say to 6.0-6.5%

8. What is the inflation rate? Currently CPI is around 4.3%

Inflation will increase. Say 5%?

9. Will there have been another major terrorist attack against the US? Yes/no

Under John McCain? No. The one thing the Republicans under Bush have done succesfully through Homeland Security is prevent any terrorist attack on domestic soil, and I believe as long as there is a GOP President there won't be a succesful terrorist attack on the USA.

10. Will China's economy still be booming? yes/no

I think it will continue to grow in the next year or so, but in the long term it will settle down, because the Chinese are starting to domesticize themselves and they want tvs, cars, and generally a higher standard of living. And we know when that happens the cheap labour will be no more, and the economy will settle there.

11. Has a draft been implemented? Anti-war activists keep warning us about it. Will it have arrived yes/no.

No. The United States will always remain a purely volunteer military. Only in the situation of World War III, in my opinion, would a draft even be considered to be instituted. And only if the volunteer force couldn't handle it.

12. Is there a NAU or an Amero?

No. The North American Union, or "Amero" is just a conspiracy theory. I do believe however red tape will be cut, while all 3 of North America's right wing governments (Calderon's Conservatives in Mexico, McCain's Republicans in the United States, and Harper's Conservatives in Canada) will harmonize our trade and security regulations, to make trade between our 3 countries easier, and allow travel between the three of us easier too. I do think their is a possiblity of a new I.D. system that would be similiar to the E.U. where citizens of Canada, U.S.A., and Mexico can travel between the three countries with ease, but to leave or enter would be a big security hurdle (as is the E.U.).

13. Bonus question: fill in your own surprising prediction, whatever, cure for cancer/global plague/aliens arrive/ etc theory, but don't say it unless you mean it.

Hmm, I think the world will generally move to the right (conservative), through:

A) John McCain winning the U.S.A. Presidential race, and possibly within 2 years taking back either the House or Senate (not both) for the Republicans

B) Canada's Conservative Party will be re-elected with a majority government under Stephen Harper

C) The United Kingdom's next election will result in a U.K. Conservative majority

So you'd have America, Canada, Mexico, United Kingdom, France (Sarkozy), Japan (there always conservative), South Korea (ditto to Japan), Italy (they elected that rich billionaire conservative), Germany (Christian Democratic Union is in power there), will mean the world has shifted into a new right wing decade, like the 80s (Reagan, Thatcher, Mulroney). But remember the 90s were liberal with Clinton, Blair, Chretien, etc.

14. ***Late addition: Please provide GDP growth forecast for 2008. I think current forecasts are for about 1% in 2008. Keep in mind a depression means a contraction of at least 10%; the worst the US has seen was an 18% contraction in one year (1937-8) or a 33% contraction between 1929 and 1933.

GDP goes down 1%. Reccession.

 

I'd love Arnold Swarzenegger to be President. He is an awesome Republican. Very principled, moderate, and a conservative I really respect.

But remember that thing we know as the U.S. Constitution? The President has to be born American.

 

And you call yourself a "true" conservative?

You have a lot to learn.

The guy has openly praised Hitler and wears Nazi belt buckles.

 

Rat are you familiar with the word "allegedly"?

Someone could just as easily smear you, since you read Tarpley who was a follower of LaRouche who was a former communist. So that makes you about as much of a communist as Swarzenegger is a Nazi.

Also, if you haven't got the courage to make forecasts what are you doing in this thread?

 

The thing that bothers me about this is people fail to remember that 9/11 happened on the Republican watch while Bush was president and both the house and senate were under Republican control.

Also there is no proof that any thing Monkeyboy (Bush) has done has prevented a terrorist attack, the fact that one hasn't yet happened since 9/11 could be that they haven't had time to set up other one yet or quite simply they may feel they don't have to because Monkeyboy is doing exactly what they wanted him to do after 9/11 and so there is no need for another attack.

 

OMG, the constitution will be changed, it's been long coming.

The new law will state that to be President you would have had to be a U.S. Citizen for 25 years, so in total around 30 years living in the U.S.

I suggest everyone here to go watch Demolition Man to get a good picture of how the world will look like in 2032, it's actuially frightening because it's probably going to come out that way.

 

Once again you fail to get the point of a thread! This is not a discussion of whether the future can be predicted or not but more like a poll to see where people think the US and the economy is headed.

So make the economic predictions or move on because without making a prediction, the purpose of this thread, you are just what you accuse everyone else of being, A Troll!


PS Since this is a thread about predictions, I’ll make a prediction.
Stev90 will continue to jump into the middle of threads he knows nothing about and will flame and troll with anger and insults, in large fonts and colored type, and his posts will generally be devoid of any thought or reason.

 

I answer the following in context of 2010:

John McCain wins in a landslide, Obama captures only 3 states, two of them being Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

In February of 2010, the Euro is 1.94 U.S. while the Canadian dollar tanks along with the U.S. The Pound is still the world's richest currency.

In summer of 2010, the price of oil in Canada will be 1.68 a litre.

Yes, by either Fall of 09 or Spring of 10.

The VeriChip has been implanted in numerous convicted criminals before their parole/release.

8.2% things get worse before they get better.

Yes, on the West Coast.

In 2010, yes, by 2020 however China will be seen as the economic fraud they are and begin their steady decline.

In 2010 no, but 2012 seems likely.

In 2010, no, the set date is 2018.

 

And it turned out Aristartle was probably the best predictor of all!

 

For posterity.

Was I really the closest? What parts was I way off on?

 

You missed the part about the space lobster invasion of last March

Also, Stephen Harper

And unemployment rate, pffft 5.7%, you and your optimism

 

HAHAHAHA. That's exactly what I was thinking.

I'm too optimistic. But I've always been a glass half full person, I can't help it. It's my nature.

 

I have a glass right now that looks about half full of orange juice..................

stop spying on me

 

Besides, my unemployment rate was guessed a year and a half ago - I wasn't aware that the market bubble would have spiraled and bottomed out housing prices to a point where the auto manufacturers would also go under.

If I knew that, I would have altered my guess - but we always see more in hindsight, don't we?

 

Pch, you like it. Admit it.

That's why you do that little hip swaying thing.

 

I have no hips to sway


Also my prediction for 2012

Palin wins the nomination

loses epically in actual election.

 

I thought she retired and slinked back to Alaska.

 

Oh no, she's very in the lime light, and she may very well win the nomination in 2012 because people on Mississippi have yet to realize she's one of the main reasons John McCain lost to begin with.

Remember kids, Africa is a country

 

Yes.

I'll admit I didn't measure it precisely, but most people were far too gloomy. I think I did pretty well but I wouldn't want to be the judge of my own performance.

Remember the survey was in March 2008, I just forgot about it for a while. So we aren't measuring against today, we are measuring against March 2009.

1. You guessed the right president. I didn't, in fact early on i thought Clinton was a shoe in for Dem nomination then I thought McCain would win the election. So I was very wrong.
2. You didn't know what the S&P index is so you get a zero there. I guessed it would go down and then recover to a slight gain at the 12 month mark. I was way off - one year later was actually the bottom of the selloff and even another 6 months of rebound hasn't brought it back to positive territory.
3. You were right about the direction of the currency - the dollar appreciated vs the Euro. We both underestimated slightly, but your forecast was closer.
4. We were both right that oil would come down, and we had identical forecasts. It came down a lot more than either of us guessed and it remains much lower.
5. You were wrong about the gold price. I correctly guessed that it would fall.
6. We both guessed that the US would not attack Iran
7. Civil liberties are hard to measure, lets say we were both right and nothing too exciting happened.
8. We were both right that unemployment would go up, but we both underestimated it. I was closer.
9. I said inflation would go up, you said "below 5%" which is a bit cheeky since that is above where it was, so you could have been right if it went up or down. It went way down. I'm not giving you a point though.
10. We were both right that there would be no spectacular terrorist attacks on the US. Terrorism continued to extract a terrible toll on muslims in poor countries though.
11. We were both right that China's economy would stay strong.
12. We were right there was no draft, nor was there even the slightest hint of the possibility of a draft.
13. We were both right there was no Amero, although you said there would be talk about an NAU. The NAU remains a mythical beast.
14. You were right there would be another election in Canada, you were wrong that Harper would be booted out. In fact he came back stronger.
15. GDP growth - you were a bit high but got the direction right. I was too vague so although I was approximately right I don't deserve any points.

 

Oh and Stev90 predicted I would be banned and Higher than Hell predicted that acga5 would get banned. Neither of them would participate in the actual survey.

Stev90 and HtH have both been banned, acga5 and I are still here.