the coming ice age thread..

so much for global warming. it seems the new discussion is of a "mini ice age". possibly do to lack of solar activity..
while i no more believe this than i do the global warming hysteria,i felt it worthy of its own thread since i am now seeing news of it on a almost daily basis.. case in point,

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/08/15/goddard_arctic_ice_mystery/
Arctic ice refuses to melt as ordered

There's something rotten north of Denmark

By Steven Goddard

Just a few weeks ago, predictions of Arctic ice collapse were buzzing all over the internet. Some scientists were predicting that the "North Pole may be ice-free for first time this summer". Others predicted that the entire "polar ice cap would disappear this summer". The Arctic melt season is nearly done for this year. The sun is now very low above the horizon and will set for the winter at the North Pole in five weeks. And none of these dire predictions have come to pass. Yet there is, however, something odd going on with the ice data.
The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado released an alarming graph on August 11, showing that Arctic ice was rapidly disappearing, back towards last year's record minimum. Their data shows Arctic sea ice extent only 10 per cent greater than this date in 2007, and the second lowest on record. Here's a smaller version of the graph:








The problem is that this graph does not appear to be correct. Other data sources show Arctic ice having made a nice recovery this summer. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center data shows 2008 ice nearly identical to 2002, 2005 and 2006. Maps of Arctic ice extent are readily available from several sources, including the University of Illinois, which keeps a daily archive for the last 30 years. A comparison of these maps (derived from NSIDC data) below shows that Arctic ice extent was 30 per cent greater on August 11, 2008 than it was on the August 12, 2007. (2008 is a leap year, so the dates are offset by one.)



The video below highlights the differences between those two dates. As you can see, ice has grown in nearly every direction since last summer - with a large increase in the area north of Siberia. Also note that the area around the Northwest Passage (west of Greenland) has seen a significant increase in ice. Some of the islands in the Canadian Archipelago are surrounded by more ice than they were during the summer of 1980.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKLiHWRaJU4

The 30 per cent increase was calculated by counting pixels which contain colors representing ice. This is a conservative calculation, because of the map projection used. As the ice expands away from the pole, each new pixel represents a larger area - so the net effect is that the calculated 30 per cent increase is actually on the low side.
So how did NSIDC calculate a 10 per cent increase over 2007? Their graph appears to disagree with the maps by a factor of three (10 per cent vs. 30 per cent) - hardly a trivial discrepancy.
What melts the Arctic?

The Arctic did not experience the meltdowns forecast by NSIDC and the Norwegian Polar Year Secretariat. It didn't even come close. Additionally, some current graphs and press releases from NSIDC seem less than conservative. There appears to be a consistent pattern of overstatement related to Arctic ice loss.
We know that Arctic summer ice extent is largely determined by variable oceanic and atmospheric currents such as the Arctic Oscillation. NASA claimed last summer that "not all the large changes seen in Arctic climate in recent years are a result of long-term trends associated with global warming". The media tendency to knee-jerkingly blame everything on "global warming" makes for an easy story - but it is not based on solid science. ®
Bootnote

And what of the Antarctic? Down south, ice extent is well ahead of the recent average. Why isn't NSIDC making similarly high-profile press releases about the increase in Antarctic ice over the last 30 years?
The author, Steven Goddard, is not affiliated

 

http://translate.google.com/transla.../nota.asp?id=651680&hl=en&ie=UTF8&sl=es&tl=en


Auguring brief era of ice in 2010

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Global warming should include other kinds of factors, such as volcanoes and human action, but also outside the solar activity, said Victor Velasco, the Institute of Geophysics.

An expert from the National Autonomous University of Mexico predicted that in about ten years the Earth will enter a "little ice age" which will last from 60 to 80 years and may be caused by the decrease in solar activity.

Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera, a researcher at the Institute of Geophysics of the UNAM, as argued earlier during a conference that teaches at the Centre for Applied Sciences and Technological Development.

In the event, the specialist in remote sensing systems said that the recent rupture of the Argentine Perito Moreno glacier, unusual for having produced a full austral winter, was not due to global warming.

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The event was due, he said, a natural process caused by temperature and precipitation of the river.

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Velasco Herrera described as erroneous predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), pursuant to which the planet is experiencing a gradual increase in temperature, the so-called global warming.

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The models and forecasts of the IPCC "is incorrect because only are based on mathematical models and presented results at scenarios that do not include, for example, solar activity," said the specialist also in image processing and signs and prevention of natural disasters.

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The phenomenon of climate change, he added, should include other kinds of factors, both internal, such as volcanoes and the very human activity, and external, such as solar activity.

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"Curiously, the star never has been seen as a cooling agent, but warming, but has two roles", he said.

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At present, assured the world is going through a transition phase where solar activity diminishes considerably, "so that in two years or so, there will be a small ice age that lasts from 60 to 80 years," and the immediate consequence of this He added, will be drought.

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In particular there is the so-called "Little Ice Age", which refers to a cold period that lasted since the beginning of the fourteenth century until the mid-nineteenth century.

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Analyses of the IPCC concluded that it was regional phenomena or accentuation local "Current evidence does not support globally synchronous periods of abnormal heat or cold in this timeframe," said his 2001 report.

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Velasco Herrera said in his conferecia landslides that glaciers are recurring events that occur even in winter, as was the case of the Perito Moreno.

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"The process begins when training, located in one arm of Lago Argentino, moving up to the tip of the peninsula of Magellan, covering the drainage channels," he said.

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When cut exits, the water level rises of 20 meters and, therefore, exerts more pressure on the ice, "which culminates with the release of huge ice blocks, as occurred last July 9," explained .

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The Perito Moreno, approximately 200 square kilometres, is in the Andes, between Argentina and Chile, and is one of the few stable glaciers in the world.

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The front of the glacier is about 2.8 kilometers long and has a height of about 70 meters above the water level of the lake, although the wall of ice reaches his bed.

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In the area are signs that the glacier, whose previous rupture occurred in March 2006, was much more extensive centuries ago.

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"In this century glaciers are growing", as seen in the Andes, Perito Moreno, Logan, the highest mountain in Canada, and with Franz-Josef Glacier, New Zealand, said Velasco Herrera.

Highlights

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Dates

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The latest, according to Victor Manuel Velasco, could arrive in approximately two years.

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In another lecture he gave at the beginning of last December, the same expert had said that the cooling would arrive within 30 or 40 years.

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And in early July, Velasco Herrera said that satellite data indicate that this period of global cooling could even have already begun, since 2005.

México.​

Mexico.

EFE​

Reuters

 

http://www.propagandamatrix.com/articles/august2008/081408_ice_age.htm

Dearth Of Sunspot Activity To Herald New Ice Age?
Observatory predicts two degree drop in temperatures over next two decades as solar activity dwindles

A top observatory that has been measuring sun cycles for over 200 years predicts that global temperatures will drop by two degrees over the next two decades as solar activity grinds to a halt and the planet drastically cools down, potentially heralding the onset of a new ice age.​

While the mass media, Al Gore and politicized bodies like the IPCC scaremonger about the perils of global warming and demand the poor and middle class pay CO2 taxes, both hard scientific data and circumstantial evidence points to a clear cooling trend.​

Following the end of the Sun's most active period in over 11,000 years, the last 10 years have displayed a clear cooling trend as temperatures post-1998 leveled out and are now plummeting.​

China recently experienced its coldest winter in 100 years while northeast America was hit by record snow levels and Britain suffered its coldest April in decades as late-blooming daffodils were pounded with hail and snow on an almost daily basis. The British summer has also left many yearning for global warming, with temperatures in June and July rarely struggling to get over 16 degrees and on one occasion even dropping as low as 9 degrees in the middle of the afternoon.​

"Summer heat continues in short supply, continuing a trend that has dominated much of the 21st Century's opening decade," reports the Chicago Tribune. "There have been only 162 days 90 degrees or warmer at Midway Airport over the period from 2000 to 2008. That's by far the fewest 90-degree temperatures in the opening nine years of any decade on record here since 1930."​

The reason? Sunspot activity has dwindled. There have only been a handful of days in the past two months where any sunspot activity has been observed and over 400 spotless days have been recorded in the current solar cycle.​

"The sun’s surface has been fairly blank for the last couple of years, and that has some worried that it may be entering another Maunder minimum, the sun’s 50-year abstinence from sunspots, which some scientists have linked to the Little Ice Age of the 17th century," reports one science blog.​

Long-time man-made global warming advocates NASA assure us that significant sunspot activity will return in 2012, but a recent a paper on recent solar trends by William Livingston and Matthew Penn of the National Solar Observatory in Tucson, predicts that sunspots will all but vanish after 2015.​

Since the sun, and not carbon dioxide, is the principle driver of climate change, a dearth of sunspot activity would herald a repeat of the Maunder Minimum, the name given to the period roughly from 1645 to 1715, when sunspots became exceedingly rare and contributed to the onset of the Little Ice Age during which Europe and North America were hit by bitterly cold winters and the Thames river in London completely froze.


Forecasts of a sharp cooling trend are backed by the UK's Armagh Observatory, which has been observing solar activity for over 200 years.​

The observatory notes that solar cycles 21 and 22, which were characterized by being short and intense in their activity, led to the natural global warming observed in the 80's and 90's. ​

"Cycle 23, which hasn't finished yet, looks like it will be long (at least 12 to 13 years) and cycle 24, which has still to start, looks like it will be exceptionally weak," writes one observatory scientist.​

"Based on the past Armagh measurements, this suggests that over the next two decades, global temperatures may fall by about 2 degrees C — that is, to a level lower than any we have seen in the last 100 years...."Temperatures have already fallen by about 0.5 degrees C over the past 12 months and, if this is only the start of it, it would be a serious concern," concludes David Watt.​

Such predictions are of course of little interest to a global PR machine that butters its bread on attributing every weather event, be it droughts, floods, volcanoes or earthquakes, to man-made global warming.​

No matter that the last ten years have showed no global warming and the next 10 years are predicted to show no global warming, the fact that temperatures are clearly dropping in correlation to the lack of sunspot activity means nothing to people who are already committed to a quasi-religious belief system and governments that have resolved to squeeze the middle class citing fraudulent claims of eco-apocalypse as an excuse, while the real environmental crises - deforestation, GM madness, cell phone tower radiation, genetic splicing and chemtrails go almost completely ignored.



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I'll believe it when I see it.

And for the record, I'd much rather live in a ice world than a desert. Sled dogs are much cooler than camels.

 

no one really knows . .

someone just swam thru the north pole . .

polar bears, drowning, mating with blacks.

it will get colder.
it will get hotter.

so be prepared.

 

this just verifies what i'veb been saying for awhile now which rabid liberals can't help but bash me for. that there is too much of a division in the mainstream scientific community about climate change for everyone to get their panties bunched up in a wad about it.

 

Ice Age ey? People who sweat a lot (like me lol) will be a lot better off then.

 

I've been saying for years we are headed for an ice age not global warming, my theory is that it will warm up and evaporate a good amount of water into the atmosphere and then it will cool down and start to snow and such and cool down. Then again i'm not a scientist i just thought the theory in generally sounds a little more plausible.

 

what a lot of people fail to realise is that global warming as well as global cooling are natural occurences which were happening for quite some time before humans ever stepped foot on the earth. as PJ O'Rourke once said

"people will do almost anything to save the earth. except take a science course"

 

"People will do almost "ANYTHING" to save the earth, as long as it doesn't include any work"

 

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-...thin_the_next_15_years_first_stage_of_global/

Monday, August 25, 2008
Climate Similar to the 1800s Within the Next 15 Years: First Stage of Global Cooling During 2008/09 By David Dilley, Meteorologist
In the peer reviewed book “Global Warming—Global Cooling, Natural Cause Found”, meteorologist and climate researcher David Dilley utilizes nearly a half million years of data linking long term gravitational cycles of the moon explain the recent global warming, rises in carbon dioxide levels, and for 2200 global warming cycles during the past half million years.
The gravitational cycles are called the Primary Forcing Mechanism for Climate (PFM), and act like a magnet by pulling the atmosphere’s high pressure systems northward or southward by as much as 3 or 4 degrees of latitude from their normal seasonal positions, and thus causing long-term shifts in the location of atmospheric high pressure systems.
Research by Mr. Dilley shows a near 100 percent correlation between the PFM gravitational cycles to the beginning and ending of global warming cycles. Global warming cycles began right on time with each PFM cycle during the past half million years, as did the current warming which began 100 years ago, and it will end right on time as the current gravitational cycle begins its cyclical decline.
Global temperatures have cooled during the past 12 months. During 2008 and 2009 the first stage of global cooling will cool the world’s temperatures to those observed during the years from the 1940s through the 1970s. By the year 2023 global climate will become similar to the colder temperatures experienced during the 1800s.
Mr. Dilley of Global Weather Oscillations has found seven different types of recurring gravitational cycles ranging from the very warm 460,000 year cycle down to a 230 year recurring global warming cycle. All of the gravitational cycles coincide nearly 100 percent with 2200 global warming events during the past half million years. This includes the earth’s current warming cycle which began around the year 1900, and the first stage of global cooling that will begin during 2008 and 2009.
The release of the book “Global Warming- Global Cooling, Natural Cause Found” culminates 19 years of research clearly linking gravitational cycles as the cause for fluctuations within the earth’s climate. The book is available as an electronic e-Book on this website. The author David Dilley is a meteorologist and climate researcher with Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), former meteorologist with the National Weather Service, and co-host of the radio program “the Politically Incorrect Weather Guys” airing weekly on RadioEarNetwork.com, an internet streaming radio program. Read more here. He also believes a moderate El Nino will occur this fall. See here.
Icecap Note: Ian Wilson has found a similar correlation between planetary/gravitational cycles and the major ocean oscillations, the PDO and NAO in this powerpoint.
Dr. Gary Sharp of Its All About time forwarded them to us with note “Two independently originated studies that provide useful insights about the future. Both studies agree well with what the Russian folks have been using to make projections about the future rise and fall of regional fisheries species - but they could not identify the causal forces - just the natural cycles. Read, learn, and enjoy the warmth - while it is still here...!”
Read more cooling stories here.

 

Im going to actually minor in environmental science, even though it probably won't be useful in my career i just believe it is something good to know.