A friend of mine here in Arizona has a great blog for political junkies. Thursday, September 25, 2008 McPain - More Conservative Backlash Andrew Sullivan, of The Atlantic: It's what McCain does: he abuses patriotism to advance his own self-interest. I used to love him - for years. I now believe he is a despicable, lying, utterly cynical pol. Check out this great blog: http://cepx.blogspot.com/ :cheers2:
"I now believe he is a despicable, lying, utterly cynical pol" you could just about say that for either candidate.
Ya, I used to support McCain years ago, but that's when his stances were different and made much more sense. That's politicians for you. Once they gain your support, they slowly, but surely, show their true colors. They pretty much all make a 180 spin and will do and say anything to get you to believe that they are the same person that you knew when you learned about them.
Saturday, September 27, 2008 Election - What The Markets Say No, not the stock market. The political futures market. These are markets where people put real money on the line and get paid off if they are right. Republicans love free markets and think they can predict and ameliorate all of society's ills. These markets are where politics and economics meet. Say I purchase an Obama contract for 50 cents. If Obama loses, that contract is worth zero. If he wins, I get a dollar. The higher a contract price, the more likely, says the market, that the even will occur. If a contract sells for X, then the market is saying that the event has an X% chance of occurring. Simple stuff. It's kind of like a poll, but with the chance to get paid if you are right. What makes these markets interesting is that, because you're putting real money on the line, they reflect what people think will happen, not what they want to happen. So opinion polls measure preferences for an outcome, but futures markets measure probability of an outcome. A McCain voter may tell a pollster they are going to vote for him (and indeed probably will), but they may still be uncertain of his chances and buy an Obama contract to reflect their sense that Obama will win. The converse is of course equally plausible. You see the same things in sports. A true gambler bets his wallet, not his heart. At Intrade, the trend is starkly clear. Obama contracts are now trading at 57.7, McCain at 41.8. Here's a chart of the last two weeks. From McCain +5.7 to -15.9, a 21.6% swing in two weeks. Date McCain Obama Spread 9/151 52.5 46.8 M +5.7 9/16 51.7 47.1 M +4.6 9/17 50.5 48.9 M +1.6 9/18 49.5 49.7 M -0.2 9/192 47.8 51.8 M -4.0 9/20 47.6 51.5 M -3.9 9/21 47.6 51.2 M -3.6 9/22 48.0 50.8 M -2.8 9/233 46.8 52.0 M -5.2 9/244 47.2 52.7 M -5.5 9/255 44.5 55.3 M -10.8 9/26 43.8 55.7 M -11.9 9/276 41.8 57.7 M -15.9 1 "The fundamentals of our economy are strong." 2 Paulson's Bailout plan released. 3 Palin-Couric interview taped. 4 Palin-Couric interview goes public. Campaign "suspended." 5 McCain charges into DC. Bailout deal goes south. 6 First post-debate trading Posted by Chris at 3:02 PM Labels: politics
Wednesday, October 01, 2008 Election Markets Update See earlier post for details Obama: 64 (57.7 9/27) McCain: 35 (41.8 9/27) Posted by Chris at 12:35 AM Labels: politics
