Wth is wrong with the 'experts'

So what's your point? His forecasts should always be right?

 

I know some Crackheads that are really good with numbers, so its not the crack..

prOzac maybe.

 

Nope... only if he wants my money... Feel free to use your own reasoning...

 

People need to estimate. They use the best estimates they can get. You can't just say "oh well they aren't right every time, I just won't bother".

The weather forecast isn't always right either, but I'm not going to take my fishing boat into predicted force 12 storms just because weather forecasters aren't always right.

 

I can't???

How odd...

 

I'm curious, would you blindly take that boat into a force 12 storm because they said it was a nice day?

 

Not if its your job you can't.

No, after listening to 'experts' I would also make my own judgement. I actually work in the investment profession, so this is not a hypothetical issue.

I'm just saying its easy to be cynical, but don't make the perfect the enemy of the good.

 

Why am I not surprised you work in the industry? I was actually going to ask you that last post, but thought it could be taken as an insult... and here it was the truth after all...

If someone who works in the investment industry is telling their clients that things are looking up, and the 'crash' is over... then I don't have to make them out to tbe the enemy of the public.... they already are.

 

I'm not saying you should keep going back to an advisor that keeps getting it wrong. I'm saying that it is cheap cynicism to expect them to always be right.

You obviously want to hear doom and gloom, but had you found an investment advisor who gave you that you would have missed a 30% rebound in the market since last March.

 

Oh, trust me, I did miss the 'rebound'... I missed the original crash too, and all the ups and downs since.

Some people looked around and asked, oh, what do the experts say... some looked around and said, what is actually happening...

How many of your clients have lost money over the last 5 years? How many of those people who you convinced to jump on the rebound have since lost that plus more? Don't take that as negative, feel free to tell me how many of your clients have made money, I'd love to hear that as well...

Most importantly, come back in another 5 years and tell us those answers again.

My answers will still be the same.... I didn't lose anything, and I gained one hell of a sense of peace from not worrying about the games that are being played with my money.

 

Then you did better than most!

As I said, try both.

I've only been in the investment industry relatively recently, before that I did other investmeng banking type jobs (mergers and acquisitions, that sort of thing). I was only an analyst for a fund for one year, then I did a different job (risk management advisory), now I'm going to be an analyst for an investment fund again but won't start the new job for a few weeks. In other words, I can't give you a five year track record.

N/A.

N/A.

OK. But keep in mind, I advise a couple of funds on a very narrow range of investments - emerging markets equity - so its not about telling them to get in and out of the market, just about doing as well as they can in the market they have chosen to be in. My fund has a very long, very good track record but I can't take the credit for that as I haven't even started yet.

Its not quite as much of a lottery as you make it out to be. People who invest steadily in diversified investments over their lifetimes tend to do well. Its not about stock picking and market timing, its not even something you need to pay anyone for advice on.

Besides, you have to do something with your money. Are you going to spend it or save it?

 

Which airline was it that went under not to long ago ?

It was big in the news and a friend of mine called, me all frantic saying this stock dropped to like 1 dollar a share, and this was the biggest financial opportunity ever and I should give him every dime I had because these guys aren't going anywhere and the stock is going to come back.

Well I don't remember the exact details, but the stock did go up and he did move the stock he bought somehow. I think he told me he got it at one dollar and sold at 4 dollars and then they went under.

Well that's kinda like what's going on right now. Everyone thinks things can only go up from here. So give us every dime you have and we are all going to be rich.

The funny thing is most of these companies don't produce anything tangible that can be sold for a profit. They mostly all look like Enron or Chrysler to me instead of using the money they get from investors to make their companies more profitable, they buy new company jets, and give people in management bonuses.

No one has any money right now. I know people that went out and got home equity loans when people were saying a three br rancher was worth half a million, and bought jet skis and new cars and big boats. Now those same people say you can't sell a 3 br rancher, you'll have to tear it down and put up a McMansion in it's place and then you may have to wait ten years before it sells.

So these people your asking about are just trying to make some money, like everyone else. They say what they are told, to keep the flow going as long as possible.

Equity is not real money (ask anyone upside down in their house)

Interest is not real money (ask anyone that recently lost half their 401k)

Credit is not real money (ask anyone that is getting charged 28%)

This is all a dog and pony show. Smile and be happy you are safe.

 

I wouldn't be so quick to judge all bad predictions as conspiracy working for the "man". Many of these people are just guys who are trying to accurately predict the flows of the universe. Which is not saying that u can even rightly use the word "accurate" in describing their visions, but it's a hell of a lot better than anything I can do.

You gotta also know that they're people. Some may see all the optimism in the world, and other may think the apocalypse of economic disasters is under way. It all depends on your outlook of people.

 

I'm not saying it's a conspiracy, or that anyone has really thought about what is really going to happen tomorrow. What I'm saying is, everyone wants more money. Stocks are low right now. If things did turn around these guys that have been saying "Now is the time to buy" would have a good chance of getting their own show, or at least a book deal.

No one want every one to stop spending and just wait and sit on what they have, or pull there money out, like a run on the banks.

I'm not saying this was planed, I'm just saying you have to produce something profitable to make money and create jobs, and no one is doing that.

There are way to many middle men right now and much to much management. The money is not going where it needs to go. It has nothing to do with the "man" it has to do with management and production.

I think the worst prediction I've heard so far is that this is going to take around ten years to straiten out, and even then the 90s aren't coming back. To me that sounds about right.

If it's in some ones best interest to tell you one thing, even if they believe something else, you better believe they are going to tell you that one thing.

 

You know, whoever the "expert" is, s/he has to be basing their opinion on something, eh?

What they base it on is a "survey of the landscape" ~

NOT some fill-in-the-blank, paper survey.

Although their opinion takes into consideration the past trends, and most current statistics,

it also includes a guesstimate of which way it's all going to go,

and i've got to tell you,

not too many folks are comfortable with predicting doom and gloom to their entire society.

Another miscalculation i see with your "thang" is that no one cares what they say, anymore, even if it's recorded for posterity ~

by next week, no one will remember exactly who the last expert was,

and i'd be amazed if very many folks even bother to check out the companies/institutions these experts come from. (Not that that wouldn't be an excellent idea, but i think you'll find that these experts aren't in some major position of importance to their companies. Just a hunch...)



It's a definite wake-up call to figure out that people will tell you anything,

regardless of whether it's an outright lie,

or something they just pulled out of the air, 'cuz they don't know the first thing about the subject.

 

The spending our way out of debt plan failed lol. gee wonder why. Guess next step is to follow brown's "write myself a blank check" Economically sound idea.... the economic guru knows all

-2009 Surviveing Stimulus plan after stimulus plan....

 

it seems like today's economists aren't capable of controlling the economy like a physicist could a pinball machine. too bad.

what is their science lacking?

 

Fed Independence or Fed Secrecy? - July 13, 2009
(Also available read aloud by Ron Paul on MySpace Player - Can be added to your profile)

Last week I was very pleased that hearings were held on the independence of the Federal Reserve system. My bill HR 1207, known as the Federal Reserve Transparency Act, was discussed at length, as well as the general question of whether or not the Federal Reserve should continue to operate independently.

The public is demanding transparency in government like never before. A majority of the House has cosponsored HR 1207. Yet, Senator Jim DeMint’s heroic efforts to attach it to another piece of legislation elicited intense opposition by the Senate leadership.

The hearings on Capitol Hill provided us with a great deal of information about the types of arguments that will be levied against meaningful transparency and how the secretive central bankers will defend the status quo that is so beneficial to them.

Claims are made that auditing the Fed would compromise its independence. However, by independence, they really mean secrecy. The Fed clearly cherishes its vast power to create and spend trillions of dollars, diluting the value of every other dollar in circulation, making deals with other central banks, and bailing out cronies, all to the detriment of the taxpayer, and to the enrichment of themselves. I am happy to challenge this type of “independence”.​

They claim the Fed is endowed with special intellectual abilities with which to control the market and that central bankers magically know what the market needs. We should just trust them. This is patently ridiculous. The market is a complex and intricate thing. No one knows what the market needs other than the market itself. It sends signals, such as prices, that should be reacted to and respected, not thwarted and controlled. Bankers are not all-knowing and cannot ignore the rules of supply and demand. They might act as if they are, but their manipulation of the market just ends up throwing it wildly off balance, which gives us the boom and bust cycles.

They claim the Fed must remain apolitical. No organization is apolitical that relies on the President to appoint the Chairman. In fact, it is subject to the worst sort of politics – power to create trillions of dollars and affect the value of every dollar in the country without the accountability of direct elections or meaningful oversight! The Fed typically enacts monetary policy that is favorable to particular administrations​ close to elections, to the detriment of long term considerations.​ They do this partly because of the political appointee process for the Chairmanship.

The only accountability the Federal Reserve has is ultimately to Congress, which granted its charter and can revoke it at any time. It is Congress’s constitutional duty to protect the value of the money, and they have abdicated this responsibility for far too long. This was the issue that got me involved in politics 35 years ago. It is very encouraging to finally see the issue getting some needed exposure and traction. It is regrettable that it took a crisis of this magnitude to get a serious debate on this issue.