At least things aren't getting worse

HawaiianEye · Jul 31, 2009

Unless the US gets its manufacturing and other jobs back,the economy is not going to get much better.As long as US jobs keep going to China,India and the third world it's going to be a big problem.Realistically the US government should place stiff penalties on any big company that sends jobs to those countries.--A "competent" government would do that and more.--And as far as countries like Germany and France,they do not outsource like the US.---Also it's really hard to compare the US with a country like France.In France the government is forced to protect and look out for their citizens.The French government is afraid of it's citizens.Maybe that's why France has the number one medical system in the world.

HawaiianEye · Jul 31, 2009

And,I never understood this talk of the US becoming a service economy.When factories and other businesses close,the stores,diners etc. in that area do alot less business too.Protectionism(maybe not exactly the right term) 'against' China,India and the third world is the only thing that will work.

Pressed_Rat · Jul 31, 2009

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNivTjr852TI

Recession Worse Than Prior Estimates, Revisions Show (Update1)

By Bob Willis

July 31 (Bloomberg) -- The first 12 months of the U.S. recession saw the economy shrink more than twice as much as previously estimated, reflecting even bigger declines in consumer spending and housing, revised figures showed.

The world’s largest economy contracted 1.9 percent from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the last three months of 2008, compared with the 0.8 percent drop previously on the books, the Commerce Department said today in Washington.

“The current downturn beginning in 2008 is more pronounced,” Steven Landefeld, director of the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, said in a press briefing this week. The revisions were in line with past experience in which initial figures tended to underestimate the severity of contractions during their early stages, he said.

The updated statistics also showed that Americans earned more over the last 10 years and socked away a larger share of that cash in savings. The report signals the process of repairing tattered balance sheets following the biggest drop in household wealth on record may be further along than anticipated.

Spending Slumps

Consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy, decreased 1.8 percent in last year’s fourth quarter from the same period in 2007, exceeding the prior estimate of a 1.5 percent drop. Purchases also began sinking sooner than previously projected, registering their first decline at the start of 2008 rather than in the second half.

Treasuries headed higher after the report, while stock- index futures declined. Benchmark 10-year note yields were at 3.58 percent at 8:51 a.m. in New York, from 3.61 percent late yesterday. Contracts on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index were down 0.3 percent at 979.

Residential construction fell 21 percent during the period, almost 2 percentage points more than previously reported, aggravating what was already the worst slump since the Great Depression.

The Commerce Department also reported today that the economy contracted at a 1 percent annual rate from April through June after shrinking at a 6.4 percent pace in the first quarter, the most since 1982. The decline in the first three months of the year was previously reported as 5.5 percent.

Recession’s Start

The National Bureau of Economic Research, the accepted arbiter of U.S. business cycles, last year determined the recession started in December 2007. The private group is based in Cambridge, Massachusetts,

Today’s updates are part of comprehensive revisions that take place about every five years and are more extensive than the changes announced at this time each year. Figures as far back as 1929 can be revised.

Over the most recent period, the third quarter of 2008 underwent one of the biggest changes, going from a 0.5 percent decrease in gross domestic product to a 2.7 percent drop. The new reading better illustrates the effect the September collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. had on the economy and credit markets.

The deeper deterioration last year underscores why Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues at the central bank cut the benchmark rate to a record low and extended credit to non-banks for the first time since the 1930s.

The new GDP data also help explain why the unemployment rate shot up 2.3 percentage points last year, the biggest annual jump since 1982.
2001 Recession Milder

The revisions showed that the 2001 recession was less severe than originally estimated, reflecting a smaller decline in business investment. The economy actually grew 0.1 percent from the fourth quarter of 2000 to the third quarter of 2001, erasing the 0.2 percent drop previously reported.

Personal income was revised up over the last decade, after the government boosted its adjustments for the underreporting and non-reporting of income using more recent data from the Internal Revenue Service. The increases in the most recent years reflect gains from rents, interest and proprietors’ income. The government changed the way it accounts for natural disasters, such as Hurricane Katrina, eliminating much of the prior volatility in income calculations.

More Savings

Higher incomes and less spending translated into bigger savings. The savings rate for 2008 was revised up to 2.7 percent from 1.8 percent. The rate shot up to 5.2 percent in the second quarter, the highest level since 1998.

The government revised corporate profits down for 2006-2008 and up for 2004 and 2005.

Finally, Commerce shifted food services, which include meals purchased at restaurants or served in schools, out of the food category. As a result, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge -- which tracks consumer spending and excludes food and fuel -- was pushed up by 0.2 percentage point for the three-year period from 2006 to 2008.

The costs of meals away from home are not as volatile as fresh food, the government said, and therefore services should be included in the measure commonly known as the core index.

To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: July 31, 2009 09:01 EDT
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Hiptastic · Jul 31, 2009

hippiehillbilly said:

keep believing what bubble vision is feeding you..
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Have the links you provided have nothing to do with the economy going up OR down... using a large font size doesn't change that. Basically your response is spam.

Pressed Rat said:

Recession Worse Than Prior Estimates, Revisions Show (Update1)
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In a way this is worse. After Rat's first attempt, full of errors and myths, he resorts to spam. So what if they revise historical growth figures? That has nothing to do with the future outlook.

hippiehillbilly · Jul 31, 2009

Hiptastic said:

Have the links you provided have nothing to do with the economy going up OR down...
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of course they dont..just like the real unemployment number of 16.5% is a myth.

using a large font size doesn't change that. Basically your response is spam.
Click to expand...

:smilielol5:

:seeya:

Pressed_Rat · Jul 31, 2009

Hiptastic said:

In a way this is worse. After Rat's first attempt, full of errors and myths, he resorts to spam. So what if they revise historical growth figures? That has nothing to do with the future outlook.
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Pfft.

You're an idiot. I'm not going to debate you.

Hiptastic · Aug 1, 2009

hippiehillbilly said:

of course they dont
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Well read this article and you tell me how this proves the recession has not bottomed:

WSJ said:

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., grappling with the worst banking crisis since the 1990s, is poised to start breaking failed financial institutions into good and bad pieces in an effort to drum up more interest from prospective buyers.

The strategy, which is likely to begin soon, is aimed at selling the most distressed hunks of failed banks to private-equity firms and other types of investors who may be more willing than traditional banks to take a flier on bad assets. The traditional banks could then bid on the deposits, branches and other bits of the failed institution that are appealing.
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Or maybe you just don't read your own links.

hippiehillbilly said:

..just like the real unemployment number of 16.5% is a myth.
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You can argue all you want about how to calculate the unemployment rate, but that has nothing to do with the trend in unemployment, does it?

Hiptastic · Aug 1, 2009

Pressed_Rat said:

Pfft.

You're an idiot. I'm not going to debate you.
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If I was an idiot I would say "the unemployment rate doesn't include people who have fallen off the unemployment payrolls."

But I didn't say that, you did.

Once again Rat, you seem to think the fact that you are wrong only proves how right you are.

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At least things aren't getting worse

HawaiianEye Member

HawaiianEye Member

Pressed_Rat Do you even lift, bruh?

Hiptastic Unhedged

hippiehillbilly the old asshole

Pressed_Rat Do you even lift, bruh?

Hiptastic Unhedged

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At least things aren't getting worse

HawaiianEye Member

HawaiianEye Member

Pressed_Rat Do you even lift, bruh?

Hiptastic Unhedged

hippiehillbilly the old asshole

Pressed_Rat Do you even lift, bruh?

Hiptastic Unhedged

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