The Ukraine Crisis Part 2 . The Battle for the Donbas

The opposition in Belarus is activating, sending a message, that if Lukashenka fully enters the war on putin's side, Belarus might plunge into a civil war:

Belarus partisans say they blew up Russian plane near Minsk

 

Bad day for vladimir putin, as ICC, the International Criminal Court issues a warrant to arrest him for war crimes and the crime of deporting Ukrainian children away from their home country:
Situation in Ukraine: ICC judges issue arrest warrants against Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova

NATO-member Türkiye finally quits stalling and agrees to ratify Finland's NATO-membership. Fellow NATO-member Hungary agrees to follow suit, meaning Finland could be a full member maybe as early as May. russia will soon be in a position where they will have over 800 miles of fresh, new NATO-border to worry about. Talks with Sweden in the meanwhile continue, as Türkiye is not yet happy with their performance.
https://www.npr.org/2023/03/17/1164236651/turkey-finland-nato-erdogan-sweden

Slovakia and Poland will donate their MIG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, adding some 25 fresh planes to the Ukrainian air force's fighting capability:
Slovakia joins Poland in agreeing to give fighter jets to Ukraine

This is on top of the first batch of Leopard 2-tanks that arrived to Ukraine earlier.

Meanwhile, after wasting ammunition earlier, russia is now struggling with dwindling ammo supplies, hampering their efforts in Bakhmut:
Artillery Shortage Hampers Russia’s Offensive in East Ukraine, Western Officials Say
Russia is running out of new rockets and artillery shells and may need to rely on 'unpredictable' decades-old ammo instead, US military official says

 

russia's forces losing steam, attack on Bakhmut stalls badly:
Bakhmut assault ‘stalls’ amid tensions between army and Wagner Group

The Nordic countries join forces to create a combined air force of some 250 fighter planes in an effort to deter russia from ever attempting an invasion:
Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark struck a deal to run their 200+ advanced fighter jets as a single fleet, creating a new headache for Russia

And for a good goddamned reason, because finally:
Putin wanted "total cleansing" of Ukraine, leaked spy docs show

(Posted in The Donald Trump Score Card-thread previously by HF member egger)

Concentration camps?! This is some straight nazi shit from the russians!

Also, russia is sending some of its nuclear missiles to belarus:
Russia will be staging nukes in Belarus, Putin says

 

Hungary ratifies Finland's NATO accession, leaving just Türkiye to complete the process, expected to be done maybe even this week. Just one more and putin's nightmare of Finland going NATO becomes reality:

Hungary parliament backs Finland's NATO accession, Swedish bid pending

Meanwhile talks with Sweden continue.

 

Also, according to Der Spiegel, the German Leopard 2 tanks have now arrived in Ukraine:

Der Spiegel: German Leopard 2 tanks arrived in Ukraine — Meduza

 

Finland is in!

Following Türkiye's unanimous decision to ratify Finland's NATO bid, all 30/30 current member states of the alliance have now agreed to let Finland join and all that's left is some paper work to be delivered to Washington, and then Jens Stoltenberg's invite for Finland to officially become the 31st member.

Finland cleared to join NATO following Turkish vote

Sweden, however, continues to not be so lucky. Talks continue, as Türkiye still remains dissatisfied with Sweden's commitment to their demands.

 

Some 50,000 troops from North-Korea might be arriving to assist russia in the war:
50,000 North Korean Commandos Prepare To Join Russia's Special Military Ops In Ukraine - Military Correspondent

russians are also looking to buy ammunition from the norks.

 

Inside the newspaper they speak about 500,000 and say they are voluntaries. I suppose these people have seen an opportunity to leave North Corea and never come back.

 

Hmm, must be a typo. No way lil' Kim can afford to send that many, knowing that many of them would certainly get killed and some would probably run away too to avoid going back home. It would destabilize north-korea's security too much.

Anyway... In the meanwhile, Finland has now officially become the 31st full member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a.k.a NATO. As of April 4th -2023, NATO's full article 5 safety guarantees are available to them. This no doubt angered the kremlin, as many Internet services in Helsinki were then disturbed with DDos attacks originating from russia. russia continues to threaten the Finns with consequences for this choice.

Finland joins NATO, doubling military alliance's border with Russia in a blow for Putin | CNN

We are eagerly waiting for Sweden to join as well to become member number 32. The Swedes hope to complete the process during this summer.

vladimir putin, unhappy that he can't control Yevgeny Prigozhin to his liking, and due to the failure at Bakhmut, is seeking to replace the Wagner mercenaries with another PMC:
Putin looking for another mercenary group to replace Wagner in Ukraine

The problem here being that Wagner is the biggest player in the business and nobody else compares to their combat strength.

 

Ukrainians are said to have crossed the Dnieper River and established a foothold on the east bank:

Russian shelling as Ukraine forces reportedly cross Dnieper River

Ukrainian troops have established a bridgehead on the east bank of the Dnipro river, implying Russia's defensive positions are weakening, report says

Meanwhile, Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin says the Wagners will no longer take prisoners. Wagner PMC commander admits to murdering children:

Wagner Boss Yevgeny Prigozhin Tells Russian Mercenaries To Kill Every Ukrainian Soldier: 'Take No More Prisoners Of The War!'

 

russian victory day parades cancelled. It's too embarrassing for putin to admit how much shit they've lost:

Russian regions cancel Victory Day celebrations, citing security concerns

Putin mocked for "embarrassing" cancellation of Victory Day parade

 

Wagner PMC is threatening to leave Bakhmut by May 10th if they're not supplied with more ammunition:

Wagner chief threatens to pull out of Bakhmut if Russia doesn't supply more ammunition – video

Prigozhin: Wagner will leave Bakhmut on May 10 due to lack of ammunition

Ukrainians, however, feel that Yevgeny Prigozhin's announcement is just a ploy, and political theater intended to lure Ukrainian forces into a trap. Meanwhile, Ukrainian attacks to sabotage russian oil refineries and rail networks in russian controlled territory could indicate that the anticipated spring counter offensive might be happening soon:

Ukraine war latest: Russia attempts to seize Bakhmut, as mercenary boss says Wagner to withdraw due to ammunition shortage

Attacks On Russia Seen As Prelude To Ukraine Offensive

It seems that russians have learned how to distract and fool the HIMARS rocket system, causing many rockets to miss the target:

CNN: HIMARS become less effective in Ukraine due to Russia's jamming

 

Update to previous post:

Wagner chief says it was 'promised' more ammo, arms to keep fighting in Ukraine's Bakhmut

Wagner Chief Says He’s Received ‘Promise’ of More Ammo After Bakhmut Threat Videos

The russian defense ministry promises more ammo and weapons. Wagner mercenaries stay in the fight after ramzan kadyrov's Chechen troops were briefly considered as replacements. Bakhmut's massacre continues.

It's not looking good for the future of russia's economy:

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1655085083299127296/photo/1

Also, russia might have used white phosphorus in Bakhmut:

Russia accused of dropping white phosphorus bombs on Bakhmut

 

russia is now trying to recruit migrant workers from Asia:

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1655447070772174850/photo/1

According to leaked documents acquired by the Dossier Center, russia is attempting to stir up fake anti-Türkiye protests all over Europe in an effort to hurt EU-Turkish relations, and to diminish support for Ukraine:

Russia staging protests for anti-Ukraine propaganda — report – DW – 05/08/2023

How Russia is staging fake protests in Europe to discredit Ukraine

 

putin ally, president of Belarus, alexander lukashenko has been hospitalized:

Rumors swirl about Putin ally Lukashenko's health after Moscow trip

Belarusian media: Lukashenko taken to hospital amid speculations of poor health

Purely speculation here from my part, with no facts to back it up, but what if putin is now getting rid of the competition so that he could move in to capture Belarus as well? What would be the ramifications of this? There are already russian troops in the country, and it's been noted that putin and luka aren't exactly real friends, but rather, their relationship is mostly just one of convenience. What if putin has decided that he doesn't need lukashenko anymore?

 

alexander lukashenko back in the limelight. Obviously he's not feeling too well. Polonium?

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1658152929214312454