The Ukraine Crisis Part 2 . The Battle for the Donbas

I think it's understandable to want peace, but it's misguided to think that a meaningful peace agreement is possible, unless Ukraine is willing to accept total control of all of Ukraine by Putin.

Putin is utterly ruthless, and a kleptomaniac. He's going to steal as much as he can until someone forces him to stop stealing. He is not restrained by any sense of morality or observance of international law.

In Syria and elsewhere, any agreement he made for peace or ceasefire was simply because he saw that as favoring his position, freezing the front lines while using the opportunity to rebuild and launch another attack. Any peace with Ukraine would just be a tactical device for Putin.

Any notion that Putin's real motive was to liberate the ethnic Russians in the Donbas confuses Putin's excuse for war with his actual motives. The fact that Putin launched a full scale invasion of all of Ukraine should make clear that his ambitions had nothing to do with the liberation of Russian ethnic enclaves.

It's remarkably similar to what Hitler did in WWII. First he invaded the Sudatenland with the pretext of liberating ethinic Germans. Maybe some people thought he would be appeased with this. Then he invaded Poland. Do you think Putin will be appeased if he gets an agreement that gives him the Donbas?

Even if Ukraine just decided to lay down and let Putin roll over them, he won't stop at Ukraine. He'll only stop when he's forced to stop. He's someone that only sees force as a limitation, not law or morality.

 

If you look at these land borders, you can understand why some countries are so committed to supporting Ukraine, in contrast to Western European countries whose populations do not fear Russian occupation. It is also interesting to observe how differently countries that were occupied in WWII react to the current Russian occupation.



You may want to use subtitles for the Russian and Ukrainian YouTube channels below:

Maxim Katz
https://www.youtube.com/@Max_Katz/videos
One of the best Russian analysts of Russian politics, a ‘foreign agent’, now living abroad.

Russian Media Monitor
https://www.youtube.com/@russianmediamonitor/videos
The outrageous views of Russian propagandists.

1420
https://www.youtube.com/@1420channel/videos
What Russians dare to say in public. Highly recommended!

Zolkin Volodymyr
https://www.youtube.com/@zolkinvolodymyr9639/playlists
→ choose: All Interviews with prisoners

Zolkin, who calls himself a journalist, interviews Russian prisoners of war, unfortunately he does it like a bullying interrogation officer. But a very revealing insight into the minds of these soldiers, who of course know who is listening to them in Russia.

hromadske
https://www.youtube.com/@hromadske_ua/videos
The excellent ++ podcasts by the host (and soldier) Serhii Hnezdilov give an uncensored insight into the Ukrainian military.

Many of the other videos of Hromadske are the work of female amateurs driving around behind the front lines, asking questions that do not reveal the slightest military knowledge. Call it housewife journalism. But sometimes there are informative videos.

Silicon Curtain
https://www.youtube.com/@SiliconCurtain/videos
Jonathan Fink’s channel about “propaganda, digital disinformation, politics, corruption and hybrid warfare” from the UK

The Drive: The War Zone
The War Zone | The Drive
Many technical details of the weapons used

Usually not terribly interesting:

Ukrainska pravda
https://kyivindependent.com
https://www.kyivpost.com

 

Exactly. ruSSian state media is already building up threatening enemy narratives about Finland, Poland and the Baltic states, because these countries are next on putin's shopping list. That bastard is out to recreate the soviet union, it's been his life-long dream ever since the original collapsed. Those three places I mentioned are all NATO-members. Any threat from ruSSia towards those regions, and article 5. triggers, and after that you simply cannot look away. If USA tries to isolate and bury its head to the sand, ignoring the whole thing, America's credibility, and thus their entire global hegemony would collapse, because nobody would take the deterring power of US armed forces seriously anymore. Dictatorships 'round the world would begin to do as they please, conquering, looting and pillaging their neighbors at their pleasure. The end result would be legit Wold War 3. This time with nukes, with everybody a loser. It still pisses me off how the lazy and pampered west doesn't seem to understand how much is seriously riding on this. The good times ain't coming back until ruSSia goes down. And putin is betting on the westerners to be scared, infantile, lazy slobs.

 

ISW: "Russian forces made confirmed advances near Kreminna and Avdiivka as positional engagement continued along the entire frontline."

Institute for the Study of War

Ukraine receives first Rheinmetall’s Skynex air defence system from Germany.

Ukraine receives first Rheinmetall's Skynex air defence system from Germany

Germany sends Skynex air defense system, other military aid to Ukraine

north-korean missiles have been used against Ukraine.

Russia used North Korean missiles in Ukraine, US says

Russia is using North Korean missiles in Ukraine, US says. That’s bad news for Asia | CNN

Another SU-34 smoked in Chelyabinsk.

Ukraine 'destroyed' Su-34 combat jet on airfield deep inside Russia: Kyiv

Ukraine has managed to fuck up the city of Belgorod bad enough that the residents are now fleeing by the hundreds.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67895152

Russia to Evacuate Some Residents From Belgorod Amid Shelling - The Moscow Times

 

Kremlin's army may lose 500,000 soldiers by year-end, warns British Ministry of Defense.

MSN

Russia-Ukraine war: Russia on course to have lost 500,000 troops by end of 2024, says UK – as it happened | Ukraine | The Guardian

 

The west is not the only place where support for the Ukraine war is waning. Inside ruSSia, the russians themselves are slowly starting to become jaded and disinterested.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blo...public-support-for-the-invasion-of-ukraine-2/

Sweden steps up despite not yet being a NATO member.

Sweden to send troops to Latvia

rus rail system marred with sabotage.

Rail wagons rigged with explosives: new details emerge of explosion on Russian railways – photo

Freight train derailed in Russia's far east

Ukrainian hackers leak personal data of 38 million clients of ruSSia’s Alfa-Bank.

Today's Top Cybersecurity News Stories

https://romania.postsen.com/world/3...-the-company-that-makes-drones-for-Putin.html

Heating goes out in Moscow, citizens rage.

Russians rage against Putin's officials amid cold snap: "we're freezing!"

Calling for an End to War Is Not the Same as Calling for Peace - The Moscow Times

Russia: Freezing in parts of the country, people without heating in their apartments for days

 

Hungary is getting closer to losing its voting privileges in the EU.

120 MEPs demand Hungary be stripped of its voting rights

EU lawmakers push on with move to try and limit Hungary’s voting rights

Ukraine and Britain sign a security agreement that remains in effect until Ukraine joins NATO. UK also announced 2.5 billion pounds of military support for Ukraine for 2024.

Ukraine, Britain announce security agreement during Kyiv visit by PM Sunak

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...support-ukraine-visit-kyiv-friday-2024-01-12/

Reuters: Yemeni Houthi terrorists mistakenly attacked a tanker with ruSSian oil.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middl...arrying-russian-oil-ambrey-report-2024-01-12/

Kyrylo Budanov, GUR: ruSSia produces more ammunition, but its quality is declining.

Odessa Journal | Main

Russia produces more ammo, but quality deteriorates - Ukraine's Intel chief

ruSSia is blackmailing residents of occupied Kherson by withholding heating coal if they do not accept ruSSian passport.

Enemy promises to give the residents of TOT coal in exchange for receiving a Russian passport – Центр національного спротиву

Russia may launch naval base in Georgian breakaway region in 2024.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...se-georgian-breakaway-region-2024-2024-01-12/

 

Agreement on Security Co-operation Between the United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland and Ukraine, which came into effect immediately upon signature on 12 January 2024:

Part I. Introduction

The Participants will continue to explore ways to further strengthen their long-term relationship including working towards a hundred-year partnership.

Part II. Defence and Security

The UK will continue its support to Ukraine for the ten-year duration of this Agreement.

Part VIII. Cooperation in the event of future armed attack

1. Any future Russian invasion would violate the UN Charter and fundamental principles of international law, and would grievously undermine Euro-Atlantic
security, including that of the UK.

2. In the event of future Russian armed attack against Ukraine, at the request of either of the Participants, the Participants will consult within 24 hours to determine measures needed to counter or deter the aggression.

3. The UK undertakes that, in those circumstances, and acting in accordance with its legal and constitutional requirements, it would: provide Ukraine with swift and sustained security assistance, modern military equipment across all domains as necessary, and economic assistance; impose economic and other costs on Russia;and consult with Ukraine on its needs as it exercises its right to self-defence enshrined in Article 51 of the UN Charter.

4. In order to ensure the widest and most effective collective response to any future armed attack, the UK and Ukraine may amend these provisions in order to align with any mechanism that Ukraine may subsequently agree with its other international partners, including the participants in the Joint Declaration of 12 July 2023.

https://assets.publishing.service.g...kraine_Agreement_on_Security_Co-operation.pdf


The UK government did the right thing, but this agreement is only an agreement between two governments, as the Budapest Memorandum was just an agreement between four governments.

From the latest xlsx file (release 14) of the Ukraine Support Tracker, publication date 12/2023:
















Currency: Euro. Highlighted: Norway

 

Ukraine claims it destroyed Russian spy plane in attack over Sea of Azov | CNN

 

ruSSian A-50 radar aircraft, costing over 300 million bucks a piece, and only about an estimated 6-8 units left in service after this recent loss, was felled into the Azov sea.

Ukraine says it shot down Russian A-50 spy plane

Ukraine says it hit 2 prized Russian command aircraft in just one day

Sweden is ramping up their production of 155 millimeter artillery ammunition.

Sweden to increase production of 155mm artillery ammunition for Ukraine

Nammo to increase artillery ammunition production in Sweden

ISW and russian literary critic and alternative historian Sergey Pereslegin: Numerous russian sources are claiming that the military will launch a large offensive effort in Ukraine come February. However, ruSSia is believed to be too weak to actually achieve much of anything with this.

Institute for the Study of War

ISW: Russia planning new offensive

Bulgaria works day and night to support Ukraine despite some of their people still buying into ruSSia's bullshit.

https://twitter.com/kvistp/status/1746237021201265061



Bulgaria's Soviet stockpiles and large defense industry may be key to Ukraine's success

In direct violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention, ruSSia has been recorded using banned chemical weapons in Ukraine hundreds of times.

russia Unlawfully Uses Chemical Weapons in Ukraine, Employing Grenades Such as K-51s, RGDs, RG-VO with CS Gas | Defense Express

Institute for the Study of War

ruSSia has lost 370,000 soldiers, killed and wounded put together.



And the latest from the British:

 

TOS-1A-rocket launcher: Another expensive rus weapons system goes up in flames. Nice fireworks. I wonder how long ruSSia can justify the losses?

Ukrainian Forces destroy Russian TOS-1A Solntsepyok near Avdiivka

Nobody wants to give them their toys anymore, so Ukrainians decided to build their own. Ukrainian self-made "FrankenSAM" system brings down an iranian Shahed attack drone in a first ever successful deployment and firing.

Drone downed from distance of 9 kilometres: Ukraine successfully used hybrid air defence system last night

Antony Blinken: "We also engaged Russia intensely for several months trying to see if there was some genuine security issue that was motivating them... ... it was never really about that. It was always about this grand vision of re-establishing a greater Russia."

Secretary Antony J. Blinken At a Conversation with Thomas Friedman - United States Department of State

France to deliver Scalp-EG cruise missiles to Ukraine.

France to give Ukraine more cruise missiles, plans security pact

Reuters: Ukraine is suffering from lack of manpower and ammunition.

 

Ukrainian operated M2A2 Bradley IFV kicked a ruSSian T90's ass (with slight help from a conveniently placed drone).

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1747744947091001556

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/e4jlUafY4Q0

Ukrainians drone struck St. Petersburg oil refinery, 1,250 kilometers (753 miles) away from the actual front. Unsure if any damage occurred.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...tack-oil-terminal-military-source-2024-01-18/

Ukraine Claims It Hit St. Petersburg Oil Terminal With Drone Strike

ruSSia claims to have taken Vesele, in the Donetsk.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...k-control-village-eastern-ukraine-2024-01-18/

Russia Says Captured Small Village of Vesele in East Ukraine

France sends additional Caesar howitzers to Ukraine.

France gives Ukraine 12 more howitzers amid flak for not pulling its weight

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...-howitzers-france-supply-missiles-2024-01-18/

ISW: According to Dmitry Medvedev "the elimination of Ukrainian statehood and independence remains one of Russia’s core war aims." and that "an independent Ukraine will never be a legitimate state".

Institute for the Study of War

Chinese banks and Turkish banks are severing ties with ruSSian credit organizations due to US sanctions.

Turkey follows China in move likely to infuriate Putin

Banks in Turkey fear secondary US sanctions and refuse to work with Russia - Athens News

Germany will increase military aid to Ukraine almost twice (to more than 7 billion EUR) - Scholz

It will be almost doubled: Scholz announces the amount of aid to Ukraine from Germany after a conversation with Biden

 

Burn, baby, burn! Flames are getting higher!
Oil base hit in Bryansk oblast, ruSSia.
Drone struck a gunpowder plant in Tombov, ruSSia.

"Meanwhile, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has become the latest senior European figure to warn that Russia could seek to expand its war with Ukraine to a Nato member state in the coming years." -BBC

Ukraine war: Russian oil depot hit in Ukrainian drone attack

https://www.wsj.com/world/drones-hi...-ukraine-steps-up-long-range-strikes-a3055db2

Ukrainian military intelligence hit Russian oil depot and gunpowder plant with drones - NV source

Terrified Russians' conversation after oil depot strike sparks social media amusement — video

Ukraine claims new drone attack on oil depot in Russia

Financial Times: " Russia may be planning a large-scale offensive as early as summer."

‘Active defence’: how Ukraine plans to survive 2024

Financial Times: Ukraine on active defensive, Russia may be preparing major new offensive this summer

ruSSia added to the list of “Nazi symbols” the slogan “Glory to Ukraine – Glory to the Heroes!” and the coat of arms of Ukraine.

Russia bans greeting ‘Glory to Ukraine’, labelling it ‘Nazi’

Baltic states are reinforcing their borders with belarus and ruSSia.

Baltic states plan common defense zone on Russia border as security concerns mount

Baltic states sign agreement to bolster NATO's eastern border

 

My face when...

It seems that putin now thinks Alaska is ruSSian and that they'd like to have it back, please.

Putin Declares Sale of Alaska to the US Illegal, Wants To Reclaim Land

 

I see...

Who knows what's going on in their minds anymore?

Anyway... The Grand National Assembly of Türkiye has approved Sweden's NATO accession protocol. Sweden is now on track to become NATO member number 32. President Erdogan must still sign the relevant paperwork, but at this point this is probably just a formality. With this, only Hungary is left to resist, but I doubt they'll be doing it for long considering how irrelevant they are.

https://www.reuters.com/world/turke...o-membership-bid-after-long-delay-2024-01-23/

Turkish parliament approves Sweden’s membership of Nato

Turkish parliament approves Sweden’s NATO membership bid | CNN

Ukraine is struggling with the quality of their drones. Round the clock mass production mandates the use of cheap and unreliable parts.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/drones-are-hit-miss-ukrainian-soldiers-2024-01-23/

NATO member countries contract 1,2 billion dollars worth of 155mm artillery shells.

NATO signs 1.1 billion euro contract for 155mm artillery ammunition - The Economic Times

NATO inks twin artillery deals worth $1.2B to replenish allies' stocks, help Ukraine - Breaking Defense

NATO signs 1.1 billion euro contract for 155mm artillery ammunition

Ukrainian pilots are now logging flight hours with the F-16 fighters.

Ukrainian pilots now flying F-16s with Instructors — Ukrainian Air Force

Donald Trump should put his money where his mouth is.

EU top diplomat says Trump Ukraine plan needs 'miracle'

EU Top Diplomat Says Trump Ukraine Plan Needs 'Miracle'

ISW: "Russian forces recently made confirmed advances south and southwest of Avdiivka."

Institute for the Study of War

ISW: "Russian military commanders are mistreating troops at a training ground in Volgograd Oblast." Russian commanders are beating and abusing personnel in the “242nd Regiment of military unit No. 46217”.

Institute for the Study of War

ISW: "Russian company HiderX is creating an “invisibility suit” that will camouflage and shield Russian military personnel from Ukrainian thermal imaging equipment.".

Institute for the Study of War

Air defense is getting beefed up around the St. Petersburg area in response to the drone attack against the Ust-Luga oil terminal. (Telegram, in russian)

ASTRA

According to ISW, "Russian air defense coverage over Leningrad Oblast is poor".

Institute for the Study of War

Over the past months, ruSSian missile attacks against Ukrainian cities have claimed at the very minimum hundreds of lives just this winter alone. The most recent ones against Kyiv and Kharkiv killed 22 and 8, respectively.

UPDATED: Russia launches mass missile strikes at Kyiv, Kharkiv, other cities

The undersigned wants to point out that this is how it's going to be elsewhere as well, if ruSSia decides to start testing its mettle against other European countries.

 

President Erdoğan of Türkiye has signed the papers that allow Sweden to join NATO, leaving Hungary as the sole member to resist.

Turkey’s Erdoğan signs off on Sweden’s NATO bid – POLITICO

https://www.reuters.com/world/middl...dens-nato-membership-ratification-2024-01-25/

UN convenes over downed aircraft in ruSSia's Belgorod, albeit not urgently like ruSSia requested, after a plane was shot down that supposedly carried 65 Ukrainian POWs. However, according to Sky News, ruSSia's list of supposedly killed POWs includes people who were already returned to Ukraine earlier.

Ukraine war latest: Putin-ally could be preparing Ukraine visit; high-ranking Russians were told not to board crashed plane, Kyiv claims

Russia says France rejects urgent UN Security Council meeting on plane crash with Ukrainian war prisoners

UN Security Council to Discuss Russian Military Plane Crash Near Ukraine Border

Russia-Ukraine war: Kyiv says it received no Russian request to secure Belgorod airspace before military plane crash – as it happened | Ukraine | The Guardian

Traitor Viktor Medvedchuk's luxury pleasure yacht will be gifted to the Ukrainians by decree of District Court in Split, Croatia, after the vessel was confiscated earlier as part of sanctions against people affiliated with the kremlin.

Croatia to hand over to Ukraine Putin ally’s superyacht


putin's war matters more to him than his own people:

 

Finnish and Swedish NATO membership is of utmost importance for the defence of the Baltic states:
Swedish and Finnish NATO Membership a Blessing for Baltic States

Times Radio is also a useful source of information which I forgot to mention, unfortunately the titles of the videos are mostly clickbait:
https://www.youtube.com/@ListenToTimesRadio/videos

Strategic non-nuclear weapons (SNNW) are very attractive nowadays:
Strategic non-nuclear weapons and the onset of a Third Nuclear Age | European Journal of International Security | Cambridge Core

A pragmatic future U.S. president might be tempted to say:

“My dear European wussies, you can have as many American weapons for Ukraine as you want. You just have to pay for them, we insist on advance payment, but only if you commit to reimburse 90 per cent of our expenses so far, for which we generously grant credit. The British Secret Intelligence Service, Government Communications Headquarters and the French General Directorate for External Security are quite capable, the latter ‘ally’ having amply demonstrated its capabilities in industrial espionage in our county. We have spent a lot of money on our intelligence services, and as our European wussies value our findings very highly, we suggest that you make us an attractive financial offer. But why do you keep pestering us with requests instead of spending more money for your intelligence services? Grow up! time to leave the basement!”​

And the European electorate of countries that were not members of the Warsaw Pact? They never had the opportunity to vote for or against the membership of former Warsaw Pact countries in the EU and NATO. Endless enlargement is extremely unpopular, especially when it involves (a) highly corrupt countries, for which Orthodox countries are notorious, as opposed to Protestant countries, and when these countries (b) do not provide the EU with additional revenue, but become a very expensive pleasure with no corresponding benefits. Isn't the small city-state of Singapore, notoriously not a 'democracy', the only country so far to have successfully fought corruption?

https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2022

And as for NATO enlargement, even Poland doesn’t send their fighter squadrons to Ukraine to help their neighbour. NATO seems to be a mere deterrence alliance, if deterrence doesn’t work, NATO send some weapons, in the best case. Because all are afraid of a ‘world war’, though fighting against an alliance of so many states necessarily has a character of such a war.

Why invest heavily in a war that won't win us anything attractive? Russia had taken Eastern Europe as a trophy, the United States Western Europe, and it is still very unlikely that a U.S. administration will allow Germany, for example, to leave NATO to enjoy neutral status like Austria and Switzerland.

“Both Americans and Russians are certainly aware of Germany’s compromised position. It must be borne in mind that, in accordance with the geopolitical thinking of Anglo-American authors (both classical and contemporary), it is an imperative to prevent the development of a Russo-German partnership. The combination of Russian weaponry, manpower, and natural resources plus German wealth and technology has the potential to alter the global balance of power, control the so-called Eurasian ‘heartland,’ and even challenge the might of maritime powers from the area known as the ‘outer crescent.’ Tellingly, a retired high-ranking German senior military officer, Jochen Scholz, has argued [Strangely enough, the author doesn’t offer a U.S. source here, though this view is widely held in the geopolitical community, TwinT] that one of the key drivers of US foreign policy toward Europe has been to avoid the emergence of a Berlin-Moscow collaborative axis. Therefore, the instigation of upheaval and geopolitical tensions by the US in Eastern Europe and some states of the post-Soviet space could be understood as a deliberate effort to remove potential bridges that could facilitate the rise of stronger ties between Russia and Germany. If this hypothesis is accurate, then the ongoing Ukraine war gives the Americans a window of opportunity worth harnessing to undermine the prospects of a Russo-German reproachment.

Furthermore, the late Zbigniew Brzezinski ‒ former National Security Advisor during the Carter administration and geopolitical scholar ‒ explained that, since its defeat in World War Two, Germany had been essentially co-opted by the Americans as a junior partner. Indeed, the continuous presence of US forces and strategic military facilities like the Ramstein Air Base is a powerful reminder of Germany’s subordinate status vis-à-vis the US.”​

Germany’s Geopolitics at a Crossroads | Geopolitical Monitor​

Every halfway educated Western European knows that. Which is why the Germans and, further west, the French, can sleep soundly. And the rest of Western Europe as well.

Mourir pour Kyiv, dépenser pour l'Ukraine ? Non merci ! Nous n'avons rien à donner !

This is what a large part of the Western European electorate thinks. A little more military spending does not change the current situation, it is only really worthwhile for hegemonic powers.