How Hot Will 2007 Be?

As global warming continues to be felt in much of the world, I'm wondering just how hot it's gonna get this summer. Will it be even more extreme?

And if every year is hotter and drier than the last, how long do we have before we are wiped out???

 

Yes, periods of COLD tend to take a long time to manifest, whereas periods of WARMING can be slow or fast, or in case of our current scenario (unprecedented ever), very, very fast!

In as little as 10 years our planet can go from what we considered "normal" to "extremely dangerous". I believe we've begun this 10 year march to our demise within the past 2 years. I'm seeing 2012 as being not the tipping point, but the point at which life starts to become unbearable for a majority of the earth's residents (and I'm not just talking humans).

Of course if you do the math that means we have only FIVE years left!

I think this summer might give us a much better taste of things to come...

 

I finally got to see "An Inconvenient Truth", Al Gore's movie. It was great, but really scary at the same time.

I liked the way Al Gore focused in on the CO2 levels as being the biggest predictor of what is to come (warmer temps).

When all the sceptics talk about other, non-man-made reasons for Global warming, like the Sun, all those theories IGNORE the fact that it's man's activities alone that are causing CO2 to increase in our atmosphere. The Sun, and sunspots have no real bearing on that.

And of course to cut CO2 emissions, we must stop our industries from continuing "business as usual", and start thinking "business must change or else!", no matter WHAT the costs.

 

Yes, the CO2 is coming from many sources...

Ice melting, permafrost melting, seabeds defrosting, forests burning, industrial pollution, automobile pollution, coal burning, heating, electrical generation, not to mention all the hot air our politicians exhale...

 

Here's the scenarios I envision:
1. Summers will start earlier, last longer, be hotter, be drier, with longer, hotter heatwaves.

2. Summer & Autumn storms will be stronger, wetter, more destructive.

3. Winters will start later (just like this year), they'll be wilder, with heavier snowstorms in some regions. Other regions will get much less snow and rain.

4. In the next few years the droughts will get worse and deserts will expand further, all around the world.

5. Flooding will get much worse, esp in vunerable, low lying areas near the seas.

6. Sea levels will increase faster than before, probably several inches per year.

7. Far worse than all this will be the increase in CO2 & methane levels in the lower atmosphere. The ability of the planet to absorb the extra CO2 will be far outstripped by how much is pouring into it (it already is).

As the oceans absorb more CO2, they will heat up further, releasing even more CO2 from the defrosting seabeds. That plus all the other sources of CO2 I mentioned should raise the average temperature around 1 degree Celsius PER YEAR! So all that temperature increase we've had in the past 25 years or so would now take place each YEAR!

If that happens, then you can expect every year coming will be far worse than the last!

I think water shortages, crop failures, massive regional, national & international blackouts will occur. Massive migrations of people from drought and flood regions will occur causing enormous hardships & conflicts around the world.

More wars will be inevitable as people and countries fight over diminishing critical resources (water, oil, land, food).

There will be massive famines, mass executions (to reduce populations, to stop rioting). There will be chaos in places like Africa, far worse than there is now.

The only upsides I see, is that more land in the far north will become habitable and arable, if you don't mind mosquitos... which bring me to more predictions...

Disease... As the famines and desperation spread, so will the diseases. Already many disease vectors are migrating north as the temps warm. Mosquitos are just one of these. Malaria and other diseases will appear in new places that never hosted them before.

But humans aren't the only ones to succumb to disease. I predict those gm crops that dominate agriculture will be attacked by new pests and diseases, cause massive crop failures (besides drought and flooding). Because of the lack of genetic diversity, farmers will be unable to find suitable replacements that can withstand the onslaught in time.

All of this will happen like dominoes. Except it will be unstoppable. It's probably already too late to reverse the trend, but NOT too late to slow it down.

Best case scenario? All of this plays out in the next 50 years instead of the next 5. That would only occur if there are BIG changes within the next year or two. I highly doubt that will happen because apparently our president will still be in office to see to it that NOTHING stops or slows the destruction of our planet.

Oh but terrorists that have struck our country only once in 6 years is a far worse threat, no?

 

It looks like EVEN my previous predictions may fall short for 2007...

More records fell as this January was the HOTTEST on record, in most parts of the world. Even worse, it smashed the old records by a lot!

And with Siberia leading the list (9 degrees warmer than normal) and Canada, imagine all that melting permafrost releasing poisonous, global warming methane.

Read this:

The temperature of the world's land and water combined - the most effective measurement - was 1.53 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal, breaking the old record by more than one-quarter of a degree. Ocean temperatures alone didn't set a record.

In the Northern Hemisphere, land areas were 4.1 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal for January, breaking the old record by about three-quarters of a degree.

But the United States was about normal. The nation was 0.94 degrees Fahrenheit above normal for January, ranking only the 49th warmest since 1895.

The world's temperature record was driven by northern latitudes. Siberia was on average 9 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal. Eastern Europe had temperatures averaging 8 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. Canada on average was more than 5 degrees warmer than normal.

Source:
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20070215/D8NAE9404.html

 

Yup! And that date is only as far back as they've gone to look thus far!

So those ppl who say this is cyclical are FUCKING NUTS! This is unprecendented, esp. in the speed of the increase in C02.

It's US humans causing this, not a natural cycle!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=a5fGvKAGFgFE&refer=canada

Carbon Dioxide Levels Are at 820,000-Year High, Scientists Find

By Alex Morales

Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide are at their highest in 820,000 years, scientists examining a 3- kilometer (2-mile) ice core from Antarctica have found.

Carbon dioxide acts to warm the Earth by trapping the sun's energy. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on Feb. 2 said man-made emissions of greenhouse gases like CO2 are very likely causing global warming, and warned that average temperatures may rise by as much as 6.4 degrees Celsius (11.5 Fahrenheit), and sea-levels by 59 centimeters (23 inches) by 2100.

In November 2005, scientists working on the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) wrote in the journal Science that the carbon dioxide levels haven't been exceeded at any point in the past 650,000 years. Scientists have since analyzed the remainder of the 3,270-meter ice core, and are likely to publish their results ``fairly soon,'' said Eric Wolff, of the British Antarctic Survey, which was a partner on the project.

``The top line answer that we've said for the 650,000 years would be the same, except we could lengthen the time period to 820,000 years,'' Wolff said in an interview in London at an event to mark the start of International Polar Year, a concerted drive to gather scientific data about Antarctica and the Arctic. ``The concentrations that we're seeing now are still the highest.''

Carbon dioxide in 2005 reached a concentration of 379.1 parts per million, the World Meteorological Organization said on Nov. 3. That's the highest level ever recorded, and an increase of more than a third from 280 ppm since industrialization began in the late 1700s. the historic level for 650,000 years fluctuated in a band broadly between 180 ppm and 300 ppm.

 

Just in: Tokyo has first winter without snowfall!

(Kyodo) _ Tokyo experienced the first winter without snowfall on record since 1876, the Japan Meteorological Agency said Thursday.
The agency's observatory point in Otemachi, central Tokyo, did not record any snowfall from December to February, the period defined as winter in Japan.

Tokyo is more inclined to have heavy snow in early spring than in midwinter but it is not certain if the area will have such weather in March or later because temperatures are expected to remain higher than usual, the agency said.