The "generated crisis". What do you think the chances are,

So we have all heard biden,powel and the rest of them speak of a "generated crisis".

has anyone else been paying attention to the news coming out since the mumbai attacks?

it seems to me that this could easily escalate into conflict between india and pakistan,and lets not forget the israeli wild card. or the american one for that matter.

i just read where speculation is that the military has seized power from the government of pakistan and that they are now calling the shots.
it seems that tensions are mounting and that this could easily escalate into conflict.

so my question is do you think this could turn out to be the "generated crisis",and how far do you think this will go?

ill follow up with a couple links so you can get where im coming from..

 

[SIZE=+1]Indian airstrikes if Pakistan does not act fast: McCain[/SIZE]
Daily Times ^| Sunday, December 07, 2008 | Ejaz Haider



LAHORE: US Senator John McCain (R-AZ) has said that there is enough evidence of the involvement of former Inter-Services Intelligence officers in the planning and execution of the Mumbai attack and if Pakistan does not act, and act fast, to arrest the involved people, India will be left with no option but to conduct aerial operations against select targets in Pakistan.

Senator McCain, who arrived in Pakistan Friday from New Delhi with Senators Joseph Lieberman (D-CT) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC), was talking to a select group of Pakistanis at an informal lunch in Lahore.

When Daily Times quizzed him on the issue of use of force he said that this is what he and the other Senators were told by India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who, as Mr McCain put it, was visibly angry and reeling from the shock of the attack.

“The democratic government of India is under pressure and it will be a matter of days after they have given the evidence to Pakistan to use the option of force if Islamabad fails to act against the terrorists,” he said.

To a question about what the United States would do in the event that India carries out such a threat, Mr McCain said that Washington would not be able to do much even as “privately I will try to dissuade India from doing so”. “We were angry after 9/11. This is India’s 9/11. We cannot tell India not to act when that is what we did, asking the Taliban to hand over Osama Bin Laden to avoid a war and waging one when they refused to do so.”

He conceded the point that such an Indian attack could beget retaliation from Pakistan and that this is precisely the trajectory of actions and reactions that those who attacked Mumbai were hoping for but stressed that at this point, if Pakistan does not do anything to find and arrest the “bad guys”, India will have no option but to use force.
Senator McCain who left for Islamabad shortly after lunch said that he and the other Senators would meet the army chief, General Ashfaq Kayani, before proceeding to Kabul in the evening.

 

[SIZE=+1]Pakistan extends 'war exercise' along border[/SIZE]
Times Of India ^



JAISALMER: Intensifying its activities along the Indian border, Pakistan has extended its war exercise "Zarab Alwar". The Pakistan army's move comes close on the heels of Mumbai terror attack.

The exercise was scheduled to end on November 28, but it has now been stretched to this month-end. Pakistani navy and air force have also joined in. The exercise is extended from the borders along J&K to Gujarat and Pakistani forces have been testing their strike capability in desert, swamp and sea scenarios.

According to sources, Pakistan intensified its exercise in the third week of October. The Pakistani forces are reportedly testing their extended strike capability with new equipment in armoured, artillery and engineering wings.

[SIZE=+1]'UK had to stop India attack'[/SIZE]
The Sun (UK) ^



BRIT and American officials had to intervene to prevent India attacking Pakistan in the aftermath of the Mumbai terror attacks, it was claimed today.

Wajid Shamsul Hassan, the Pakistani High Commissioner in London, said that he learned from his sources that India was about to launch a military strike to “teach Pakistan a lesson”.

Mr Hassan, who made his claim in an interview with the BBC, said that he had alerted Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari to the threat.

He said that the President in turn urgently contacted high level British and American officials who intervened to calm the situation.

There was no response to the claims tonight from the Foreign Office. A spokeswoman said: “We do not comment on security issues”.

The revelations come after it was revealed today that one of two Indians arrested over the attacks is a counter-insurgency police officer who may have been on an undercover mission.

The man was arrested for buying mobile phone cards used by the gunmen in the attacks.

A senior police official in Indian Kashmir says the man, identified as Mukhtar Ahmed, is part of a semiofficial counter-insurgency network whose members are usually drawn from among former militants.

The official says Calcutta police, who are holding Ahmed, have been told he is “our man and its now up to them how to facilitate his release.”

Following the attacks at the end of last month which left more than 170 dead, Indian politicians were quick to point the finger of blame at Pakistan.

The sole surviving gunman captured by the Indians, named as Mohammed Ajmal Kasab, is said to be a member of the militant Lashkar e Taiba group, which has links to the disputed region of Kashmir and has also been linked to the Pakistani ISI intelligence service.
Foreign Secretary David Miliband and US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice have appealed to the Indians and Pakistanis to work together to find out who was responsible for the attacks in an attempt to head off a fresh confrontation between the nuclear-armed neighbours.

 

Pakistan military taking control






Bruce Loudon, New Delhi | December 08, 2008

Article from: The Australian

CONCERN grew in India yesterday that the Pakistan army had taken charge of the country's response to the Mumbai terror attacks and effectively staged a coup against the country's nascent democracy.


Fears of a full-scale resumption of power by the army in Islamabad lie behind India's relatively cautious response to the crisis, despite New Delhi's insistence that elements in Pakistan orchestrated the slaughter in Mumbai.

In a dramatic manifestation of the Pakistan army's role in the drama, the civilian Government reneged on its agreement with India to send the chief of the top spy agency, General Shuja Pasha, to New Delhi to help with the investigation. The army countermanded the deal.

And it has been disclosed that the chief of the army, General Ashfaq Kayani, despatched his personal aircraft to New Delhi in the middle of the night to pick up Pakistan's Foreign Minister, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, who was on an official visit to India at the time of the attacks.

Diplomatic sources said Mr Qureshi was told by General Kayani to get back to Islamabad and that the army chief's aircraft was being sent to bring him home.

The army, which has ruled Pakistan for most of its 61 years as an independent nation, revels in confrontations with India.

One analyst in New Delhi wrote yesterday: "It could be that the ultimate aim of this entire exercise (the Mumbai attacks) would be for the military in Pakistan to take power again inthe name of dealing with an India crisis."

Though India does not say so officially, New Delhi is convinced Pakistan's ISI spy agency was aware of the plan for the assault on Mumbai, just as it was aware of the bombing of the Indian embassy in Kabul last July.

The ISI has longstanding and close ties to the al-Qa'ida-linked Lashkar-e-Toiba organisation believed to be responsible for the Mumbai attacks.
Until late last year, General Kayani, now much favoured by Washington, was the commander of the ISI, and General Pasha is one of his closest confidants.

Analysts believe the Mumbai assault was carried out to provide an opportunity for the army to reassert itself as the ultimate power in Pakistan, and to sideline the elected Government led by President Asif Ali Zardari.

General Kayani is believed to be calling the shots on Islamabad's response to the crisis.

In another assessment of the Mumbai fallout, another leading analyst has underlined the links that exist between al-Qa'ida and Lashkar-e-Toiba.
"LET's close ties with al-Qa'ida seem to be verified by its increasingly anti-Western stance, its radical internationalism and its movement towards a trans-regional jihad," said Rashmi Singh, a fellow at the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence at St Andrews University in Scotland.

"LET has been identified as not only a critical recruiting link for operatives in Iraq, but also potentially providing training for the execution of terror attacks in Europe," she wrote. "Various LET operatives have also been identified as part of the insurgency in Iraq."

Al-Qa'ida's ideology was, Dr Singh argued, "clearly reflected in the deliberate targeting of American, British and Israeli nationals - a phenomenon never before seen in India".


http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...5-2703,00.html

 

Mumbai attacks: Ex-ISI chief Gul terms Post report 'nonsense'
7 Dec 2008, 1601 hrs IST, PTI
ISLAMABAD: Former ISI chief Hamid Gul on Sunday dismissed as "nonsense" reports that Pakistan has agreed to arrest and hand him over to India in connection with the probe into the Mumbai terror attacks. ( Watch ) "It is nonsense, it is disinformation because (Secretary of State) Condoleezza Rice and America want my name to be included," he told a private Indian channel over phone from Rawalpindi. He was reacting to a Washington Post report that said Pakistan has agreed to a 48-hour timetable set by India and US to take action against Lashkar-e-Toiba and arrest at least three Pakistanis believed to be linked to the Mumbai attacks. Citing a top unnamed Pakistani official, the Post said among the people India asked Islamabad to arrest and hand over is the former ISI Director Gul.

"They (the US) don't like this loud voice in which I condemn them, their aggression, their oppression, their invasion over Afghanistan and lies in Iraq. I expose them, their 9/11 was a fraud, it was an inside job," he told NDTV.

"I want to say to the Indian public and the Indian leadership please don't fall into their trap, look at what they have done to us, they are deceitful and they will use you for their own purpose," he said. On his links with the Pakistani spy agency, Gul said: "I left the ISI 20 years ago ... I have no contact with ISI." The former ISI head claimed that the US now wanted Indian troops to be "committed" to Afghanistan "because they have run short of their own troops and NATO is pulling out." Asked whether he will cooperate with India in probe into the deadly attacks, Gul said he is ready to help if his government tells him to do so. However, he said New Delhi should show "more sagacity" in dealing with Islamabad.

 

There will be no generated crisis as Biden would like to think and/or say..
There are already huge tensions with Russia, in Iraq & Afghanistan..India / Pakistan as you mentioned (Nothing generated there)
The out-going US administration could of course avoided all of that, but no.
Things could continue to escalate or be completely resolved, its all up to how the Obama administration will deal with its inheritance.

 

you dont see the mumbai "terror attacks" as a deliberate act designed to escalate tensions("generated")?? how could you not?

 

From what I understood of Biden when he talked about the generated crisis was that "there will be a specific crisis generated to test the new US president"..I think thats bull.
Mumbai attacks on the other hand whether they were meant to escalate tensions between India and Pakistan or just another terrorist act, doesn't matter they are already at the brink of war and they've always hated each other.
Happened a few times before too if I can remember.

 

so you dont think that a war between two nuclear powers one having a major global financial hub in it(which was attacked to start all this) will test the president of the united states? you dont think it could have been part of the overall plan?

i mean after all its always been our duty to meddle in others affairs,why would it suddenly not be obamas responsibility to fix it?

 

Of course it will test not just Obama, but every country with interests in the region.
My point is, its not being deliberately generated to just test Obama as president as Biden meant. Deliberately generated to start a war? sure.

 

ok fair enough.. :cheers2:

just seems to me the two can coincide.

 

But um, conflict between Pakistan and India has existed well before these attacks in Mumbai.

 

yes i am well aware of the fact that they have had many minor skirmishes since developing nuclear capabilities.
what i am asking is given there history and the facts that a ex pakistani intelligence officer is being accused of master minding it as well as the rumored military coup taking place,do you think anything major will come of it?

it certainly would fit the definition of a "global generated crisis" if they were to launch full scale attacks i would think.

 

I would like to think that Indian authorities would take legal appropriate measures to prevent further attacks and punish the groups that have caused them.

Who knows? Not everyone turns into Dubbya Bush after a 9-11 attack and goes into pre-emptive mode.

I think that Pakistan has been a problem for India for a very long time and the cultural divide is going to increase because of this incident. On the global scale, India's market export economy is operating on very thin ice. China is doing deals with the EU and USA and is in better shape than their manufacturing sector.

The accelerating gap between the poor and the rich is widening everywhere. It's hard to say that India will retaliate or has the capabilities and allies to retaliate with the same amount of force or more on Pakistan. They can't do it without the nod of approval from the USA and other superpower countries.

 

Iran has deployed a world war style placement of ships on the coast, anticipating an attack by israel and america. The economy can collapse with a flick of a switch... A mysterious plague can emerge (they've conditioned people for this with SARS, Bird Flu ect.) Theres troops on american soil... If the writing on the wall is correct, Im sure the obama administration's agenda is packed full of goods right from day 1.

 

anyone paying attention?

the closer to inauguration day we get the closer to war india and pakistan are getting.

i just read the UAE has ordered all its citizens in pakistan to report to their embassy. that could only mean they are bugging out..

also a observation,just one of many ive made over the last couple weeks,pakistan is shifting their troops away from the tribal regions and to their border with india.this leaves the door wide open for the US to have justification for ramping up their cross border attacks into pakistan.

its looking more and more like this WILL be the "generated crisis" so many have warned would greet obama..

 

great source for up to the minute happenings on the "crisis" for anyone interested in following what the main stream media has largely been ignoring..

http://forum.pakistanidefence.com/index.php?

 

The "generated crisis" will more than likely be multi-faceted. No doubt the economy will play into this, as it appears February could very well be a crucial month when people begin to realize just how dire things are. This will more than likely coincide with some sort of a contrived geopolitical flare up that "demands" US military action.

There is so much happening on so many fronts right now. Something is bound to give.

 

Anyone else have a problem with McCain, Lieberman and Graham being our foreign advisors on this? Perhaps they were whipping the flames. Who authorized the trip and exactly what was it's function?

Now Gaza is in a uproar.

 

I think it's time these guys were reined in.

http://crooksandliars.com/cernig/mccain-lieberman-graham-throw-their-weight-