Brexit anybody?

Revenue
(Taxes, surcharges and funding opportunities for corporate gain/s)
methinks

 

That's part of it yes, but Ireland (both North & South) are predominently rural, agricultural countries and some of the farms close to border, actually straddle that border. Dairy produce in the North will be decimated by a 'no deal' brexit because of the idiocy of Johnson !!!

 

To the Irish nationalists (and other less militant Irish people) the border of Ireland is the beach. The English border in Ireland is not Irish.

The thing is if you have different trade and migration regulations on either side of any border you will need a hard border to be able to do checks of goods and people crossing to make sure they comply with the regulations. (And during the troubles to stop the movement of guns and explosives).

To Irish nationalist any such border is seen as an affront it shows that Ireland is partitioned and it would once again become a rallying cry for such terrorist organisations like the IRA.

The IRA always vowed to try and destroy any visible manifestations of it a hard border put up by the English (and kill the people running it). So if you have custom post you will need armed protection with the prospect of armed confrontation and terrorism.

But when the UK and Eire both became part of the EU then here was no need for a hard border and that became one basis for the Good Friday agreement, the dismantling of all physical evidence of there been a border and a promise (backed up by law I believe) that there never would be any type of hard border between the two areas.

Anyway if there is no EU agreement the EU (in this case the Irish government) would have to put up borders (although Irish nationalist have said they will blame the British for that) to checks goods coming in from outside the EU, it is about the legal and physical integrity of the EU.

As a Law Professor Aoife O’Donoghue of the University of Durham explains that “the harder the Brexit, the harder the border.”

You could say why doesn’t the UK just let good come in without checks but then you come up against WTO rules

“If the UK chooses not impose any tariffs on goods coming across the [Irish] border… that would mean that the UK is giving the EU (because Ireland is the EU in this context) complete open access. So its most favoured nation tariff is zero. That means it would have to give a zero tariff access to every single country in the WTO.”

So the UK would have to put up some type of hard border inside Ireland

Thing is that Northern Ireland voted to remain so the most rational thing to do is have a border down the middle of the Irish sea with NI remaining in the EU customs and regulatory region (with option in future to vote to join with the Irish Republic) then the rest of the UK could have whatever new system they wanted and all the custom posts etc would be in English Welsh and Scottish ports.

That was the EU’s proposal and it was rejected because the right wing DUP was propping up the Tories (and still are).

 

UK economy to avoid Brexit recession despite shrinking in August - business live

 

Thank you for that Vanilla.
Pretty much all the Brexit Project Fear shite has been proven wrong.
And will be again once we are out of the EU which is costing us ONE BILLION POUNDS A MONTH to stay in.
No wonder they want to give us extensions and keep us in their rotten money pit club.
Thieving bastards!

 

And this one doesnt make any sense. You dont pay any VAT on milk. And with a no deal brexit NI dairy farmers would be the first to pick up the slack supplying the rest of the Uk

 

No deal and milk

Around 80% of all milk produced in UK is consumed domestically, producing enough for the home market with some left over, some going to export in processed form (like cheese). The UK mainly exports milk from Northern Ireland to the Republic of Ireland for further processing. Export tariffs would lower the competiveness of these exports across the Irish border, leading to reduced exports which could affect prices. Tariffs on cheese and butter exports would also make those exports uncompetitive, as they are much higher in absolute terms than those for milk.

 

Cost of EU

We pay around £9 billion into the EU as a member

But let put that in context we spend

145 billion on health

45 billion on defence

29 billion on transport

And 13 billion on overseas aid

We also contribute less (per head of population) than some other EU countries such as Germany.

For the 9 billion we get all the advantages of free trade with the EU members and with the EU trade deals with none EU countries a say in the regulations and policies set by the EU.

Some have put a figure of roughly £31bn-£92bn per year as the best estimate we have in terms of the additional value created to the UK economy through trade as a result of EU membership.

 

There is a lot of economic activity at the moment because of what many think is coming I mean what do you do if you think you are going to be hit by a hurricane, do you do nothing or do you prepare like stockpiling and setting up thing so that you can try and weather the storm. That doesn’t mean that damage will not be done it does mean people are trying to mitigate against that happening.

I mean Mark Carney has said the impact of a no-deal Brexit would be less severe than first thought because of the preparations for a crash out had helped to reduce the likely hit to the UK economy BUT Carney warned that the central bank still estimated GDP would decline by about 5.5% which would be a sizeable economic shock.

 

Where are the sunny uplands?

Remember the possibility of a no-deal wasn’t even on the table, all the talk from the leaders of the leave campaign was about getting a deal a good deal, a great deal, a better deal than what we have now, we were going to get our cake and eat it to.

Remember when they said there would be no down side to Brexit it would be easy to do and people wouldn’t even notice, until things started to become much better those fabled ‘sunny uplands’.

This seems a long way from there to no deal leavers admitting things might be bad but that we will pull through it with our ‘Blitz spirit’, (without pointing out that we didn’t vote to be bombed, and that thousands died in those bombings) so by the way, where did the sunny uplands go?

Now we know of the emergency planning for a no deal Brexit but I presume (and hope) that the civil service has also been commissioned to compile other scenarios for all types of Brexit to see if any of them actually benefit the UK, I think those should also be published for public viewing.

Because from all available information any kind of Brexit seems like a bad idea and it seems to me that leavers have stopped talking of cake and sunny uplands and try to clutch at anything that makes crashing out not seem so much like the disaster it will be.

 

Same old tired immutable tariffs argument

 

Yeah, and you can put that £9 billion into the health system

 

YES Vanilla
And I do believe that as Boris Johnson says, the cost is ONE BILLION A MONTH.
So TWELVE BILLION A YEAR!

 

The REAL cost of BREXIT !!!

'There May Be Deaths' – No-Deal Brexit Warning From Chief Medical Officer Is Starkest Yet

 

You, you silly sod, clearly didn't read the link I put on here a couple of days ago showing the impact on Northern Irish farmers.

https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2019/10/07/ni-dairy-industry-set-to-be-a-wiped-outa-by-no-deal-brexit/#

 

Oh, for crying out loud

 

Read it a second time, still bullshit

 

And your alternative idea of the likely outcome is ???

 

The British economy has been £600 million worse off every week since the EU referendum in June 2016, according to new research. According to a new report published by investment banking giant Goldman Sachs, nearly 2.5 per cent has been shaved off UK GDP since the June 2016 vote. This means that every seven days, Brexit has cost the economy nearly double what the Leave campaign promised would be spent on the NHS if the country voted out. But the £600m figure might soon worsen if the shock of a no-deal Brexit comes to pass…. The report echoes previous Bank of England analysis that suggested around £40 billion per year, or £800 million per week, of income had been lost for the country as a whole since the result of the leave vote.

 

Project fear”?

When remainers warned that negotiations might be difficult, leavers shouted ‘project fear’ : it would be the easiest deal in history.

When remainers warned that Brexit might damage the Good Friday agreement, leavers shouted project fear: there would be no border thanks to technology (that didn’t exist).

When remainers warned that companies might leave it was called ‘project fear’ by leavers – companies have or are planning to move away fro the UK

When remainers warned that investment would slow it was called ‘project fear’ by leavers - investment has slowed

When remainers warned that the pound would fall it was called ‘project fear’ by leavers - the pound fell

When remainers warned that a leave vote would have an adverse effect on the economy it was called ‘project fear’ by leavers - it had an adverse effect on the economy.

And on and on

The leaver comeback is to exaggerate the warnings then say things are not as bad as those exaggerated warning - it’s like someone warning that ‘you could lose any eye’ them saying the warnings was ‘you could lose your head’ and then pointing out that actuallly been blinded isn’t as bad as been decapitated.