Brexit

I'm worried - but I think we just have to wait and see what happens now. It's possible it will never happen - but I think that would only lead to even more trouble, as people who support Brexit will say 'we was robbed'.

I'd be less worried perhaps if we had a functioning opposition party - but at present we don't, so the tories can have a field day of scrapping regulation on things like worker's rights and the environment. One of May's first acts has been to do away with the department responsible for climate issues. To me that doesn't bode well. Human rights also likely to be a casualty. I don't think anyone can say what the effect on the already fragile economy could be. They seem to be scrapping Osbourne's idea of 'paying down the debt' - thus writing off 6 years of austerity and all the misery that has caused.

I think other Europeans are worried that Brexit could be the start of the break-up of the EU which could lead to dire consequences. You only have to look at the history of the 20th century to see where division and nationalism in Europe can lead.

Perhaps we can somehow avoid the negative consequences. I hope so, but I'm not very optimistic.

Let's just hope that somehow we can make the best of a bad job.

 

I'm not that pessimistic either. EU could get some things improved much easier without Britain as a member. It's not like everything has to go down because a brexit costs a lot of money (which it does). I agree with people when they say come on, stop crying in a corner and put your shoulders under it but I strongly disagree when english people say stop criticizing the brexit and the people that argued for it under false pretense, and stop criticizing the retarded british politics at the moment.
Certain british people should deal with their fellow brits who out their frustration like this :

It is all very bearable and understanding. At least they're not acting like hooligans in the towns centre

 

In some ways, loosing Britain could help the cause of further European integration. It's something that the UK has persistently been against, so maybe Brexit might open the way for that. Meantime, I think the EU needs greater democracy and transparency - would have much preferred to remain in the EU and try to work for that. Even before the vote I was supporting this https://diem25.org


Only just over half the votes were for Brexit, and I don't think people here who do believe in Europe are likely to just shrug their shoulders. A lot has to happen yet before we leave, and I doubt it's going to go smoothly - but let's wait and see.

The referendum has thrown the problems with the UK political system into sharp relief, but I think maybe more people will feel like taking politics a little bit more seriously now as a result. Green Party says nearly one new member per minute in the week following the vote. Many more joining the Labour party too, partly because of other although related issues.
But it's going to take a lot to change the system here. Everything is so entrenched.

 

Personally I don't buy the relativity argument.

"Shit, I've got no arms.Hold on, there's a bloke over there who's got no arms or legs. Oh I don't feel so bad now."

This is the country we live in, and I really don't like the way it's headed since Brexit.

 

As other people have commented this is very much the beginning -its only five, ten, twenty years down the line before we really know what the results of this action will be. Some might think that then what the hell then it doesn’t matter but it might to people’s pensions or their child’s prospects.

We haven’t even invoked Clause 50 yet which is the actually beginning of the divorce.

Why are some of us worried?

Politically

Remember that a lot of the problems we have today (the crash, housing, outsourcing, inequality, Scotland wanting to leave etc) are the result of policies begun over 30 years ago with the adoption of flawed neoliberal policies under Thatcher’s government.

And although Theresa May might be pumping out the old ‘one nation’ Tory guff (and pulling out Keynes again) but many inside the Conservative Party are married to neoliberalism and although they might realise that voters are pissed off at the results of neoliberalist policies I don’t believe they are going to give it up because they don’t think it’s the ideology that’s wrong they just think it hasn’t been applied strongly enough and believe that was holding them back was being part of the EU.

And in this crucial time what is the main opposition doing well pissing its credibility up against the wall of the future.

Economically


Thing is that although just over half the UK has voted to stop being a member of the EU however some may wish it we are still part of Europe and given the proximity of the other European counties it’s not surprising we buy and sell most of our stuff with them.

Trade with Europe is crucial to our economy we can try and boost sale to non EU countries but one I hope we were anyway and two it will take time if possible at all, three we need the goods and services to export, that bring economic benefits to all (not just a few).

Now the thing is that there can be a gain from the devaluation of a currency in a country with the type of mix economy that can take advantage of it (Although personally it’s going to make my already booked holiday in Ireland much more expensive).

Basically it can give a boost to exports as goods become relatively cheaper to buy in foreign markets. And the gain is greater the more of the ‘train’ of manufacture is held domestically and not imported (for example making steel in the country from a resources and using a power source coming from that country which is then made into cars)

The problem is that I’m not sure if the UK has the right type of economy to take advantage of this windfall.

British manufacturing has long been in decline as a share of real GDP it has fallen from 30% in 1970 to 12% in 2010. There was a neo-liberal belief that the market would reorder things in an improved way - it didn’t while other countries like France and Germany husbanded their industrial base successive UK governments basically let it go.

And so we became a country of imported goods often paid for through debt.

What we did attract were companies that wanted to take of being inside the EU so they could sell to the EU, those companies are now worried by the exit.

Across the board investment is down and many such investments are long term factories take time to build but why make a commitment that will not be realised for 5 years when you don’t know what the trading possibilities might be like in 5 years. Many will either wait (stagnating the economy) or go elsewhere to the detriment of income into the economy, and both courses would have an impact on jobs

This is also why many investors are trying to divest from commercial property.

As I piece in the Guardian today said “Meanwhile, a survey of 132 chief financial officers at major UK companies showed that business optimism had declined to the point where most were gloomier about their firm’s prospects now than during the height of the financial crisis. According to the poll by Deloitte, more than four out of five CFOs expect to cut hiring and discretionary spending in the next year.”

So why am I worried – because I’m getting closer to retirement and the ailments of old age and I have a little girl just taking the first few steps on the road of her life.

 

Bill

I agree doesn’t bode well. The Cameron/Osborne energy plan seems unsure at best, they ran down support for renewable (wind solar etc) and limited the scheme to make homes more environmental (grants for insulation etc) and put all their eggs in the nuclear option.

But the nuclear option was dependent on money coming from Chinese investors and the French government (through its subsidiary Électricité de France) it was running into problems before Brexit with the Chinese not being enthusiastic and the EDF finance director quitting because he feared the project could jeopardise EDF's financial position, it was only French government support that kept it going but will that happen now?

Yes I remember that BS about there being no alternative to neoliberal inspired austerity we had to do it because there was no other way. Trouble is that neolibealism isn’t good at times of crisis so politicians always seem to go back dig up some form of Keynes.

So the check on borrowing has gone out the window (although Os was still doing it on the QT). And May seems to be hinting at government spending aimed at stimulating growth and jobs, with Quantitative Easing in the wings.

Letting the market decide is out and government involvement in.

But for how long after the financial crash a Keynesian approach lasted just long enough for the big institutions to be bailed out of trouble (and the debt burden passed on to the people) before it began being criticized and austerity imposed.

 

I haven't liked the way it's been heading for decades - this Brexit vote is just the latest episode in a sad little story.

Still, living here is a whole lot better than the life a lot of people have all over the world. I think we need to move beyond just 'my country' and try to see things more on a global level. Call it relativity if you like.

 

'Paying down the debt' was always a deception. The UK is in debt to the tune of around £1.56 trillion (2015 figure). It's growing at the rate of £5,170 per second.If liabilities such as pensions are factored in it's much higher, around £4.8 trillion. That excludes household and personal debt. If those were added in the figure would be truly astronomical. That's what 'fiscal responsibility'looks like evidently.

On the energy front, it's not at all clear what happens now. My guess though is that China and France may well think again.

 

Conservative Peer and ex chairperson Lady Warsi says the Brexiteers have stoked up Islamaphobia, anti-semitism and xenophobia with their divisive campaign tactics and helped to legitimate the views of the far right.

Not a great admirer of Warsi, but she's onto something here. In this item she does what hardly any politician ever does, admitted she previously made mistakes.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/22/politicians-blame-respectable-racism-lady-warsi

 

Some more fallout from the Brexit vote: Sir Amyas Morse, auditer general of the National Audit Office says some big public projects will have to be scrapped as a result, and calls Brexit 'an emergency'.

Projects under threat include Hinckley C nuclear plant, HS2 (high speed rail) and a 3rd runway at Heathrow. (Personally I think if HS2 and the 3rd runway don't happen, it'd be all to the good.) The projected 7bn refurbishment of the Palace of Westminster could also be affected.

" To say we're going we're going to go on and do everything we did before - I just don't think that's going to be sustainable" said Morse.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/21/brexit-could-force-multibillion-pound-projects-to-be-scrapped-says-nao-chief?CMP=share_btn_tw

 

Hey Bill

I’m confused first up I was wrong I didn’t think Hinckley C would get passed by the EDF but it scrapped through (one board member resigning and 7 to 10 majority)
BUT then with the marquee up at Hinckley and the champagne on ice the new admin at Number 10 stops everything and says they want to take another look tell you what we decide later.

Is it that the Tories also thought that EDF wouldn’t pass it and then had to act – has Teresa who has less skin in the game than Cameron/Osborne realised just how much this is going to cost?

 

I think your analysis is probably right. The tories didn't expect EDF to give the go ahead and the cost is probably a big factor. My guess is that the government don't yet know what the longer term economic effects of brexit will be, so they're using delaying tactics.

If this ever does go ahead the costs are sure to spiral out of control.

 

Makes me wonder what the other 17% want. Probably better off not knowing.

 

This Is so Fucking stupid I can Hardly bring myself to comment
But Hey !! Do you have statistics to show how many of those 17% voted out ?
If not Then What the Fuck has it got to do with the UK voting to leave the EU ( which they did whether you like it or not )

 

I find it surprising that 17% of those asked presumably don't care for wildlife preservation. That's all.

The EU regulations won't apply anymore when we leave the EU so it is relevant to the whole Brexit business. Maybe half of the 17% voted to stay in the EU, but I doubt it.

 

So you are saying that those 17% would have had a different view if we had voted to remain in the EU ?
I cant find any relevance Whatsoever in that picture or statement other than 83% of the UK care about Wildlife which is a good thing !

 

No - I'm not saying they'd feel any different.

I suspect that a potion of that 17% might well be tory types though, who'd like to bring back fox hunting, set up fracking in areas where wildlife would be threatened, that sort of thing. Since we're going to have a tory government forever by the look of things, I do think keeping the EU regulations might be a good idea. But probably we will anyway.

 

I respectfully disagree

 

Eastern European member states are threatening to veto the UK's immigration controls following Brexit.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37396805

How the hell does that work then? Brexit means Brexit. We have/are leaving the political dictatorship of the EU commission and it's overpaid tables of unelected Eurolords. That means we fucking decide what shit goes down here now, not some shower of beaurocrats from another country.

If we want to kick out all the Eastern European jobs and social housing drains then that's up to us.

Hungary can't turn round and say, well that's not good enough. We are going to block you through the EU! Britain is no longer a part of that fucked up hegemonic bullshit. We no longer have to abide by their stupidly ill-thought out laws.

I'm not saying I'm against immigration, it's helped me get laid a few times in recent years because Eastern European women are quite easy to seduce.

But for fuck's sake, when folk in the UK can't get jobs or a place to live because the island is flooded by millions of migrant workers, meanwhile in Poland there are towns sitting with half the houses empty and they are having to release convicts from jail early to work on building sites because all the construction workers have fucked off to somewhere else in Europe for a better wage.

It's not really working is it.

 

Let's wait and see. We've only had a vote, the actual terms of Brexit are yet to be agreed.

Myself I think the terms won't be very advantageous for Britain, but time will tell.