Brexit

Bal

Indulge me

Why do you want to stay? Give me your best upsell

 

Well it is right now Friday 7th June 2019 and 12.30am.
I am watching the Andrew Neil program This Week on BBC 1.
Around 3.15am the Peterborough result should be announced and I am staying up to watch that result.
I am reinforced by a couple real ale beers.
I love this political stuff.

Come on The Brexit Party.
Come on and win this damn bye election.

Goodbye Labour Party.
Goodbye Conservative Party.

Leave the EU.
Hello the WORLD!

 

Mr Being

LOL if you had read the thread as asked you would already know my position but as you are asking I’m presuming you were to lazy to do that?

I had a discussion with a leaver who said I was putting the British working man down and that if the UK was unshackled from the lazy Europeans the hard working British would shine.

I did have to point out that the Leaver Dominic Raab has said "Once they enter the workplace, the British are among the worst idlers in the world,"

And I must admit that many of the leavers I’ve meet here seem work shy, they don’t seem to want to do any work they seem to depend on others to do their thinking for them.

 

Congratulations to labour... now sort that place out!

 

Now remember that a lot of the people that are pushing for Brexit are not going to feel the brunt of the drawback from the withdrawal, some will gain financially and others for ideological reasons actually look forward to say the privatisation of the NHS, a reduction in workers’ rights, and the dismantling of the welfare state

The people that will be effected adversely are the majority.

OK where shall I start probably best to start with the economy

*

We pay something like 9 billion to be part of the EU

Let’s put that in context we spend

145 billion on health

45 billion on defence

29 billion on transport

And 13 billion on overseas aid

We also contribute less (per head of population) than some other EU countries such as Germany.

For the 9 billion we get all the advantages of free trade with the EU members and with the EU trade deals with none EU countries a say in the regulations and policies set by the EU.

Some have put a figure of roughly £31bn-£92bn per year as the best estimate we have in terms of the additional value created to the UK economy through trade as a result of EU membership.

Now virtually all analysts and trade negotiators I’ve heard seem to think that we are likely to get screwed over trade if we leave because we are going to be in the weaker position and that would be true even if we had a withdrawal deal – if we are stuck in WTO rules our position will be far, far worse.

Some leavers have argued that we will able to trade much better with non-EU countries I’d ask why are we not doing these deals already from within the EU? Germany already exports more to China and India than we do.

What are we going to suddenly manufacture and sell when we are not part of the EU that we are not doing now when in it?

On the other hand if we just allow other countries free trade deals for their goods most of our manufacturing and agricultural base will be destroyed.

*

Now again virtually all analysts, (independent and in the government) agree that leaving the EU will make the UK worse off as the Institute for Fiscal Studies puts it Brexit “weakened the public finance by £15 billion per year by the early 2020s, more than outweighing the UK’s £8 billion net contribution”



Projections of the effect on UK GDP vary depending on possible outcomes but all outcomes predict a drop.

And the effect will be worse for us than the EU the overall effect on the EU27 will be a fairly small decline in their combined GDP – a weighted average of 0.17%.

In comparison, we find that a no-deal Brexit will reduce the UK’s GDP by a staggering 5.8% of GDP.

These results can easily be understood when we consider the fact that each individual EU country trades much more with the rest of the EU as a whole than just the UK.

*

Even leavers that once said that everything was going to be fine like David Davis “There will be no downside to Brexit only a considerable upside’ now admits there will be pain although on no evidence he is hoping it will only be short term pain although Jacob Rees-Mogg has admitted that the benefits of leaving the EU may not be felt for 50 years or not even then. And Farage is on record as saying the British people will be worse off if we leave the EU.

 

Nnnaaahh Morrow.
It's far too late now, particularly if Corbyn stays on.

Labour were very lucky last night, and didn't The Brexit Party do well!

UK Home | Daily Mail Online

Corbyn is measuring up the curtains at No10: Boris warns feuding Tories after Labour by-election victory - as Farage says he WILL sabotage the Conservatives by splitting the vote at an election unless Brexit is delivered

• Lisa Forbes won 10,484 votes, beating Mike Greene by just 683 with 9,801 with Tories in third on 7,243
• Labour got 30.9% of the vote, Brexit Party got 28.9% and Tories just 21.4% - showing how Brexiteer vote split
• Peterborough election was called after ex-Labour MP Fiona Onasanya was sacked by voters after being jailed
• Labour's Ms Forbes narrowly won by-election vote despite her own anti-Semitism scandal last week

 

OK Labour won the Peterborough by election but yes The Brexit Party came second but again I’d like to know what those that did vote for BP thought they were voting for?

I mean the leavers here don't seem to be able to explain there ideas so do Brexit voters actually understand what they are supporting?

[edit] From what I can tell the Brexit Party have no manifesto but have said they want a Brexit on World Trade Organisation terms and they will not pay the £39 billion that we owe to the EU because of already contracted obligations.

Basically pissing off our largest trading market and putting the UK in the worse position possible in relation to trade negotiations with them and the rest of the world.

I wonder if these people understand the implications of that madness?

 

To carry on from my last post -

Now I’m sure some leaver out there is thinking of giving the Pavlovian response they have been taught which is to cite article 24 of WTO GATT.

This article allows countries who are negotiating a free-trade area or customs union to have an interim agreement on trade tariffs for a period of (in most cases) up to ten years provided they have a “plan and schedule” agreed for concluding a final deal.

BUT if the UK leaves the EU with no deal, and therefore no trade agreement, it will not be able to use Article 24.

The EU would have to agree terms and in fact since we would be throwing out the present withdrawal deal, we would have to begin negotiations all over again.

Remember that £39 Billion that was part of that deal that the Brexit Party don't want to pay

Now while just crashing out would hit the UK really, really badly it would have a lesser adverse effect on the EU and they could well think that not only should we pay up from what we owe the EU for past contractual obligations [£39 Billion] but we should also pay them some compensation for the harm the UK has caused.

All’s fair in love, war and trade negotiations and the EU negotiators are in fact actually obliged to try and do the best they can for their members and we wouldn’t be one of them.

And they would have us over a barrel because did I mention we are going to be in a very bad place by then.

I hate to think what they might ask for in such a situation.

I wouldn’t support such a move but I couldn’t blame them either seeing as it would have been us who caused all the pain – or rather the WTO leavers would have.

Although they think crashing out will be fine although not one of them can explain why.

 

Bal

Answer the question

 

Mr Being

Post 1046

Can you give a reply?

LOL

[honestly do you read any of the posts?]

 

There does seem to be a lot of ignorance on the Leaver side of the Brexit discussion, as in a huge lack of knowledge about the workings of the world and EU (and surprising for a group that wishes to leave) little understanding (or desire to know) about what the implications of leaving would be.

It’s as if they have been taught to dislike, even hate, the EU in a knowledge free vacuum, where actual real life information about the EU was missing and replaced with anti-EU misinformation, rumour, innuendo and lies.

I suppose it’s been this open secret, we had all meet Eurosceptic boars down the pub or popping up on current affairs programmes (there we thought just to give balance). We also knew about the Eurosceptic right wing media [edit] and that politicians of all hues would blame the EU for things that were really their fault but….

It was just that been someone who likes to be informed and mixing with similar people (in my bubble you might say) I never realise so many people were falling for the con in such a big way.

but as someone who likes to be informed and mixing with similar people (in my bubble you might say) I never realise people were falling for the con in such a big way.

So it has come to pass that we have people like, Mal, Booze and Being who cannot defend the stance they passionately believe in with any rational argument.

It’s like finding out one day that a large number of your fellow citizens actually believe in the existence of Middle Earth or Narnia and even more disconcertingly want to move there.

I’ve found trying to talk with these people rather amazing, fascinating and sad.

I think they have all now come to realise if only subconsciously that there stance doesn’t sand up very well to scrutiny, but they have invested so much of their lives in it that they just don’t seem able to let it go.

 

I cannot remember the details, but in the David Eagleman series "The Brain" there is an experiment which showx that people will come up with a reason for why they think something afterwards, and really think they thought it before hand. The subject of the programme is about the subconscious being a bigger part of our brain than the conscious. There are many demonstrations of the brain's ability to twist information. I think people who can step back and say "oh wow, actually I don't know why I thought that, that was totally incorrect" on a matter this large are quite rare.

 

If you Google "like a broken record " your fucking name comes up
Your the one that cant let go !

You have not been charged anything for this information !

 

Drift

Oh I agree

Do you remember the poster ‘AnAussiechief’ who promised us he could easily ‘prepare a sort of essay about why I believe the UK should leave’ and then disappeared?

I think he honestly thought he could do such an essay, in his head it would be simple, it would be easy, but when it actually came to produce it – he couldn’t.

But rather than coming back and admitting that after trying he has realised that leaving might not be such a good idea – he just stopped posting, now maybe there was another reason for his disappearance but it is a bit of a coincidence.

And it fits in with other leavers I’ve met

Many when I ask them to address the criticisms of Brexit I have raised reply that they are not going to discuss anything with me, not because of their inability to put up counter-arguments but for my intransigence in not just understanding there viewpoint without rational explanation.

They have accepted something based on nothing so why can’t I

They have accepted the need for Brexit based on little or no knowledge of the subject – so why can’t I.

 

Your very short and concessive and very formative post is a fucking cracker there Mal and it speaks a million words.
Balbus reminds me of Theresa May.
You know.
Going on about her great and wonderful Brexit deal that Blarnier and Donald Puss and Junkier and the rest shafted her with right up her big fat rear end.

Now her own MPs have shafted her as well one by one because she was as dim as a 5 watt light bulb.

Balbus dear chap who I would avoid in a pub at all costs.
Please give up on opposing Brexit while you'r not ahead!

Cheers!

PS
I won't charge you anything for my advice either, even though it is obviously worth a fortune!

 

Booze (morrow and Mal)

Come on leavers look at the above posts - go back and look at them – they clearly show the thing you support will cause this country, my family and possible even yourselves great pain and long term suffering and you can’t justify that stance in any rational or reasonable way

What kind of people are you?

Sorry booze but can’t go around calling other people dim for not having a clue how to get a better deal than the one we already have when you don't have a clue either.

 

And even this poor fucking baby's had enough now Balbus!



Give over will ya!

 

Booze

LOL - Thank you again – (you are the leaver that just keeps giving)

Your reply was what I expected and once more highlights just how devoid of substance your reasons for wanting Brexit are.

You have NOTHING absolutely NOTHING

Why do you hate your country?

I mean you would have to hate it a lot to want to cause it and the people in it so much pain.

 

So I had an epiphany

For all the Union Jack waving and jingoistic tub-thumping of the leavers it is actually the remainers that love the UK more.

It’s the remainers that have bothered to gather the knowledge to make an informed decision, it’s the remainers that care enough to think about what would be best for the people of this country.

It’s like those people that don’t vaccinate their kids, they have fallen for a whole load of lies and conspiracy theories only to actually put their kids and other people at greater risk of catching diseases.

If such people had made the effort to become informed from reputable experts rather than charlatans they would be in a better position to know what was best for their child.

But like leavers many don’t seem to want to make that effort.

And that is something else I’ve learnt about at least some of the leavers – they I’m sorry to say seem rather lazy.

Too lazy to do some simple research to lazy it seems to just think things through, and if asked to think they react like the leavers above, they become huffy, they claim they have not the time of energy that they say they will put in the effort then run away, they simply just don’t do it.

So maybe it not like those people that don’t vaccinate their kids but closer to those people that get done for child neglect because they just can’t be bothered to look after their child.

Either way by being uninformed or negligent they are hurting the thing they should love, care for and protect.

 

Not seen one reason from a remainer why they want to remain, just either a bunch of links and a bunch of criticism to people who want to leave... which I may add there are more of.. of course we know that, that's why the vote to leave went ahead..
The reason to stay.. because you dont like change, because life is comfy.. crap!
Something has to change, there is not enough room on this little island
There is not enough in the pot to look after the people
The company's from abroad are leaving in droves
Our NHS is failing the people
Our MPs dont have a clue
People are becoming homeless in their own country while foreigners are housed
English business is failing our towns while foreign grocery stores are taking their places
I cant be arsed with this thread no more, if people dont get why we need change, then your only thinking of your self, your selfish.
Our governments need to be changed, conservatives have destroyed my country, and if coming out of Europe is a start, then I for one am willing to give it a go!
Enoch Powell was right, and it's not racism, its truth, conservatives seen it as more people, more taxes, big fat wages for them... and its hit them clean and square on the chin!
Your in power for the people on the street.. why are you not working for them?

This is a bit old now, but still is the way it is