Brexit

I do re read your posts, re reading doesnt make them less garbage

This doesnt even say anything

""Negotiating trade deals is better form a position of power and influence which Brexit has already diminished and will do hugely if it goes through especially with a hard Brexit"

 

You have just over 7 weeks, if Labor doesnt agree to an early election you are going to get stuck with Boris for 3 more years.

Even if they do manage to pass legislation to get him to request another extension they cant make a law to give a decent reason

And it doesnt look the EU is going to grant it.

In just over 7 weeks, you are going to find out the answer to that question the hard way

 

Norway’s payments go beyond those explicitly made for participation in EU programmes. Professor Begg described these payments, which go towards EU cohesion funds, as “hypothecated to economic development in central and eastern Europe”. They were “in effect their club membership fee. That is beyond the net gains that they will get from the research programme in which they are participants.”198 Underlying such payments was the “elephant in this room”, namely that “the single market is also about free movement” and the jurisdiction of the CJEU.199

Jens Geier MEP characterised Norway’s—and all Member States’—cohesion payments as inherent in preserving the fairness of the single market: “The weaker countries said, ‘Please give us the balance for not having the possibility any more to stop your goods and services by customs taxes, technical obstacles and so on’, and because of that Norway is paying.”200 Dr Sánchez-Barrueco concurred: “It is important to highlight that the underlying logic of budgeting in the European Union is of a redistributive nature.”201

Dr Zsolt Darvas, Senior Fellow, Bruegel, told us that he had obtained figures from the European Commission on the contributions of EEA countries to the EU budget. The figures, and corresponding figures for selected EU Member States are set out in Table 4.202

Table 4: Annual net financial contribution to the EU


% GDP
€ per capita
Iceland

-0.05%

-25

Switzerland

0.02

12

Liechtenstein

0.03

40

Norway

0.16

115

UK

0.25

79

Italy

0.29

79

France

0.32

100

Netherlands

0.36

140

Germany

0.39

131

Source: Calculations prepared by Dr Zsolt Darvas, based on European Commission data

Dr Darvas noted that Norway’s net contribution of €115 per capita per annum was significantly higher than the UK’s (though less as a proportion of GDP). Ms Grässle put the figure for Norway’s contribution slightly lower, at “€107 per capita to the Union budget, on average.203 Dr Darvas argued, however, that as the UK was not pursuing full EEA membership, “in the future I would expect lower payments for the UK than Norway’s current payments”. Nevertheless, there would be a price for single market access: “I still imagine that European Union countries would demand a significant contribution from the United Kingdom.”

Richard Ashworth MEP reached similar conclusions:

“There would be an ongoing element of payment, voluntarily entered into, by which [the UK] would get benefit. There would be an ongoing element of payment, if [the UK] wished to have a special relationship with certain elements of the single market, and again, in the Prime Minister’s speech, she said quite clearly that she sought a special arrangement specifically for cars and trucks.”205

The alternative to making regular payments into the EU budget in return for access to elements of the single market would be to accept that tariffs will be charged on goods passing in either direction. Mr Ashworth argued that regular payments would be “cheaper than bit-part, drip-feed payment through tariffs … It is cheaper to pay an annual subscription to the golf club, rather than every time you go and play.”206 If the UK did not secure tariff-free access to the single market, “the amount of tariff that will be paid … seems to be a very, very substantial sum of money indeed. It would need to be greater than the contribution into the single market; otherwise it would not be worth doing. I do not think it has dawned on people yet quite how big that sum is going to be.”207

Access to parts of the single market will form a major element of the negotiations on a future relationship, and within these negotiations the balance between the bill for single market access (wherever it falls) and the cost of tariffs will play a part. The issues go much wider than we can cover in this report. Suffice to say, it is likely that, either directly or indirectly, the EU will seek budgetary contributions in return for single market access.

The example of Norway shows that access to the single market may come with a financial price. We note, however, that Norway’s contributions over and above its payments for participation in particular programmes are calculated to take account of its specific situation as a member of the EEA, an option that has been ruled out for the UK by the Government.

The question of whether the UK will be required to make a payment in return for market access will be a matter for negotiation, and is likely to involve trade-offs between the level of access sought, the structure and level of other payments and more general political considerations. If the UK refuses to accept free movement of persons or the jurisdiction of the CJEU, the price that it is asked to pay could be proportionately higher than that demanded of Norway. The Government will have to consider any proposals in the round, weighing any payment included in a wider trade deal against the economic benefits the UK stands to gain from continued market access.

Lords Select committee on the European Union

 

VG

Honestly you don’t understand that – why not?


I mean you could do the reading as suggested to get more detail

 

VG

So to the question - why do you think a Brexit especially a hard Brexit will be good for the UK economy?

YOU HAVE NOTHING

 

Facepalm

 

VG

LOL no just barefaced evasion

 

,

 

VG

Negotiating trade deals is better form a position of power and influence which Brexit has already diminished and will do hugely if it goes through especially with a hard Brexit. They can take years.

So i ask again are you saying you don't understand that? If so why? What is it you don't understand?

 

I'm also really wondering why you act like nothing is said here. It obviously hints at the fact that after a hard Brexit the UK is forced to make other trade deals out of sheer neccesity. They don't have a good position. Do you really not get that?

Well, its pretty obvious: You're not arguing on behalf of the topic but more against Balbus Have fun with that. It's pretty tedious for everybody else though

 

He will just google a phrase, click a link that has a dramatic headline, copy and paste content from it he doesnt understand, then we will get "read the posts" a hundred times


""Negotiating trade deals is better form a position of power and influence which Brexit has already diminished and will do hugely if it goes through especially with a hard Brexit"

This doesnt say anything, its way too vague and still no real definition of what a hard brexit is

 

And yes, I am very enthralled with the topic especially after Boris Johnsons "humiliating defeat" in parliament.

Sitting here with a bucket of popcorn

Boris came in like a wrecking ball
He never hit so hard in love
All he wanted was to break your walls
All you ever did was remo hoh hone me
Yeah, you wre eh eh eck me

 

It doesn't say what a hard Brexit is, but it's not vague. It's just saying "hard Brexit will diminish our power and so also our negotiating position"

Why WILL Brexit be good for the economy? (if that's what you claim, I know Balbus is asking this but didn't follow the whole exchange). I'm not saying it won't, I just don't know.

 

VG

"Negotiating trade deals is better form a position of power and influence which Brexit has already diminished and will do hugely if it goes through especially with a hard Brexit"

Again, honestly you can’t understand this at all?

Why not?

What is vague about it?

And when you said that you thought the only major impact of having hard borders would be an insignificant adverse effect on tourism was that not vague – how do you gauge ‘vague’?

As to explaining a hard Brexit and its meaning to the UK as pointed out that has been covered many times in the thread

The problem as has become clear you don’t seem to read (or ignore or forget) any posts you don’t like (or maybe the problem is that you didn’t understand then)

This make any attempt at honest discussion rather hard (and frustrating)

*

"Negotiating trade deals is better form a position of power and influence which Brexit has already diminished and will do hugely if it goes through especially with a hard Brexit"

OK so we have to accept that you just can’t get your head around this, it make absolutely no sense to you, and so I’ll try and explain

Let us say we are in the desert and one person controls the only source of water and the other person doesn’t have any water, then it is likely in any trade that the person with the water is going to be in stronger position than the person with no water.

Do you accept that?

Ok so let’s say you are a small country (call it A) that would really like to sell your products in a larger country (call it B) – so a small market economy trying to get into a large market economy. But country B doesn’t really need A’s products (as it has its own similar ones) and although it has products that could be sold to A it’s doing fine as it is so doesn’t need to. Then A to get the deal is likely to give more concessions to B, and B is going to use A’s weaker position to try and push that to get as much as it can.

Do you understand that?

Trade negotiations are all about making concessions with the stronger partner often been able to a better deal because it has the power and influence to do so.

The UK has power and influence but not on the same level as the EU27 or the US

Do you get that?

The thing is that the whole Brexit situation has shown up the social, political and economic weaknesses in the UK and other countries have taken note and will use those weaknesses in any future trade negotiations. And it is getting worse. Investment is either leaving or on hold that will have consequences, the pound has fallen but has not resulted in any great boost to exports, the Brexit is likely to result in the breakup of the union (with Scotland and possibly Northern Ireland breaking away). I could go on and anyway this has all been covered already.

Thing is that many on the leaver side believed they would get a wonderful and easy deal because they overestimated the power and influence of the UK (or pretended so) one reason why the leave campaign was so jingoistic. But once begun it became clear that wasn’t the case. The German car makers were not going to step in and the tactic of holding a gun to one’s own head and threatening to pull the trigger only had the EU negotiators shaking their heads and asking if we were ok, but gained us few concessions.

Now we have a position were those pushing to leave have somehow convinced a whole load of people that pulling that trigger would be a good thing and that there is going to be a wonderful future after putting a in your head.

After Brexit and especially a hard Brexit the UK is going to be in a weaker position it will need trade deals a lot more than those it is seeking them from.

Can you get your head around that?

So I ask again - - why do you think a Brexit especially a hard Brexit will be good for the UK economy?

 

Jeezus

 

VG

Question is did you understand it - or can't you not get your head around even that? LOL

 

Well while we wait for VG to get his head around some rather simple ideas let us carry on

To repeat something that has already been brought up earlier in the thread, in the event of a hard Brexit the EU is unlikely to be sympathetic to our problems and will not be treating us as a member as it has done but as just another country wanting a trade deal and before any trade negotiations can take place it will now demand that that we still comply with the things in the withdrawal agreement, paying our bill and respecting its citizens.

 

Trade with other countries itself isnt a big deal compared to your countries total income.

Trade figures reported are gross volumes, not profits

Link down the bottom for all the boring facts and figures. But an important one is only 9.9% of British companies are exporting

The issues with brexit could be categorized into at least a dozen areas

When it comes to trade all the doom and gloom seems to be centred around the assumption that for some reason all those EU countries arent going to clamber around trying to work out new deals....which is just bizarre

The Uk has already signed an MRA with the US. Drop the digital services tax and you will get a free trade agreement with the US

As for Northern Ireland a whole lot of bluffing going on. And you need a no deal brexit to see what their heavily unionized parliament are actually going to do, and how the EU would actually react being dictated to by them

It is my position that none of its really real, important trade deals wont take years, it will be only months, standards they will just copy and paste the old EU rules temporarily, which is what an MRA is. Borders and Citizenship, you are just talking the same way the rest of the world does it. For the rest of it, you'll have a whole bunch of public servants running around for a couple months, which means more jobs and overtime.

If you end up with a no deal brexit, and none of the doom and gloom happens, and those EU countries scurry around making new deals. Yep, then the EU wont last, at least you are never going to trust them again

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...FjAAegQIAxAB&usg=AOvVaw0APv5PnMxSOUiZZPF4bViT

 

Which is what you are really scared of isnt it.

An end to socialism and unionism in Europe

Unionism on the Northern Island side

Scotland, well are they ever going to vote yes for independance? I think no, theyd choose their old buddies England over Europe.

And Europe, are they all bluffing?

You need a no deal brexit to sort through everyones bullshit.

Are we going to get to the stage where we see Boris in handcuffs taken away in a prison van?

Beginning of the end of socialism across europe

 

Simple is right. I will use the desert example when I teach my 5 yr old nephew the producer consumer model