Brexit

Panic

The meme like so many is misleading and ill-informed - I think I’ve already posted on the adverse effects of slogan politics and its rejection of detail and knowledge in favour of simple and simplistic answers.

Now Panic let’s see if you can back this simplistic meme up with a bit more detail let’s see if you understand the subject enough to make an informed and substantive contribution to the discussion.

Over to you.

 

Thing is that whatever happens from now on, be it a no deal, a deal or a second referendum it is all bad, just differing degrees of bad.

A No deal would be worst.

The slow decline of leaving with something like the Boris deal comes next

But even if there is a second referendum and we voted to remain a hell of a lot of damage has already been done.

*

And whatever happens the recriminations will go on for a generation or more.

 

You forgot to mention the collapse of the EU

 

Aw come on now, you KNOW the EU is as sound as a pound!

 

Ok the Boris deal is still been picked over but my first impressions is that it’s basically the May deal with a more neoliberal slant and of course a boarder down the Irish Sea.

How is Boris Johnson's Brexit deal different from Theresa May's?

It’s basically a worse deal that the supposed ‘bad’ deal that Eurosceptic’s wouldn’t vote for but who will now seem to say they will vote for this one.

 

Don't panic matey, Boris will need the support of the ten DUP MPs in order to get a majority in Parliament. Arlene Foster, the leader of the DUP has already trashed Boris's deal and with Jeremy already saying that the Labour Party will vote against it, there is very little chance his 'deal' will get approval in parliament.

 

Decreasing 15% since the Brexit vote?

 

I'll say 12 labour MPs in total vote for the deal

 

Today is the day

Dun dun dun duuun

 

Meanwhile in freedom loving Europe.....

 

Please read carefully and inwardly digest.
Thank you.

FORGET POLITICS, IS BORIS’S NEW EU TREATY BREXIT?

No, it’s not Brexit factsheet no.7 –
The EU’s new UK Colonisation Treaty A layman’s summary of the EU’s new ‘UK colonisation treaty’ agreed by the PM yesterday

1. Parliament will not be sovereign - UK still to be governed by existing and new laws of the ECJ – a foreign court – and with no say over these laws. [WA articles 4, 87, 89 and 127, PD para 131]

2. Demands payment of a sum to be decided by the EU - Minimum £39 billion but this is likely to increase and the EU decides the final sum. This must be paid BEFORE any trade deal is agreed. [WA articles 138-144, and 152-155]

3. No trade deal with EU – Not included as this is just a divorce treaty. Any EU trade deal must ensure “a level playing field for open and fair competition” and “deep regulatory and customs cooperation”. This will make it difficult for the UK to reduce non-tariff barriers in trade deals with USA, Australia, China, etc. [PD paras 17 & 21]

4. Prevents independent tax policy - Political Declaration still obliges UK to adopt a future relationship which will impose EU State Aid rules and “relevant tax matters” on the UK. EU specifically intends to curb UK’s ability to have “harmful tax practices”. Withdrawal Treaty also applies EU law to UK during transition period - allowing EU to sue UK, including infringement proceedings for as yet unidentified breaches of State Aid rules and billions in VAT on commodity derivative transactions dating back to 1970s. [PD para 77, WA articles 86, 93, 127].

5. Restricts independent foreign policy - UK to be bound by international agreements concluded by the EU despite having no influence in their negotiation during the transition period and must “refrain, during the transition period, from any action... which is likely to be prejudicial” to the interests of the EU. [Articles 129(3) and (6)].

6. Prevents independent military action – UK permanently stopped from taking “any action likely to conflict with or impede” EU’s foreign policies. Critical parts of section on foreign policy and security are not reciprocal, eg future relationship will not “prejudice the decision-making autonomy of the EU” but no such language for UK – only permitted to “maintain the right to determine how [to respond] to any invitation to participate in operations or missions”. Also, parties “agree to consider” security collaboration in European Defence Agency, European Defence Fund, and PESCO “to the extent possible under [EU law]” which is prescriptive (not permissive) obligation. Despite paying for European Defence Agency during transition, British troops in EU battlegroups will not be led by British staff officers. [WA articles 129(6-7) and 156-157 and PD paras 99, 102(c)]

7. Controls UK fishing – Common Fisheries Policy continues in UK waters during transition (which can be extended) but UK will have no say in implementation or enforcement. After transition, Political Declaration requires “cooperation on... regulation of fisheries, in a non-discriminatory manner” - code for continuing current arrangements for EU access to UK waters. Any trade deal to “ensure service providers and investors are treated in a non-discriminatory manner, including with regard to establishment” - prevents UK protecting quotas from EU purchase. [PD paras 29 and 72]

8. Replaces one EU Commission with another - New body established with “powers equivalent to those of the European Commission”. UK must accept exclusive jurisdiction of Arbitration Panel and judgments of ECJ. Grants EU officials criminal immunity and exemption from UK tax. Imposes gagging order on UK which must keep all EU information confidential but EU can use UK information as it sees fit. [WA articles 74, 101, 104-5, 106-116, 159, 168, 174]

9. Leaves UK with €500bn liabilities from EU Investment Bank but no profits - No rights to past and future profits made from UK investment in EIB, no rights to UK share of assets of EIB, yet UK remaining liable for risk of up to €500bn of guarantees. UK must let EU bid for UK public projects at least during transition. [WA articles 34, 75-78, 127, 143, 147, 150].

10. EU colonisation - makes UK bystander in laws that govern it - UK permitted to send civil servant to Brussels to observe EU passing laws designed to disadvantage UK economy during transition which might last many years. EU could regulate London’s huge foreign exchange markets, impose financial transaction tax that would be collected at UK expense by HMRC but sent to foreign governments. [WA article 34] Prepared by Brexit Facts4EU.Org with advice from a Brussels-based barrister For more information: https://facts4eu.org/news/2019_oct_eu_treaty_for_uk_

 

And they make my point for me – we need a second vote

The leave vote was SLIT

People voted for differing version of Brexit that were often incompatible with others, so one type of deal that would be acceptable to one or two groups would be vehemently opposed by other groups of leavers. And a leave without a deal (that wasn’t even canvassed for in the referendum) that some want is strongly opposed by many other types of leavers.

What we need is a long delay or to revoke article 50 so the leavers can decide what they want – then they can bring it to the table after it has been peer reviewed costed and given due scrutiny and then it can be presented to the country – so this time people know exactly what they are voting for.

 

In the long diatribe above from cut and pasted from a very pro-Brexit blog it is clear the author and reader seem to be completely divorced from reality, its demanding again that they want a unicorn.

I mean they don’t seem to realise that even after the UK left the EU without a deal we would still need to negotiate a deal.

It is just that after leaving with NO DEAL we would be far more desperate and facing a much more hostile EU27.

The idea that you can have your cake and eat it is the very definition of impossible.

 

Lets see what happens today first

 

Not One

The problem is that although there are many different ideas on what leaving should be like NOT ONE leaver seems able to actually explain in any rational or reasonable way why leaving would be good for the UK.

 

I think tomorrow will be the biggy votes Vanilla.
Bastard Bercow may scupper today.

 

Yawn.
Same old shite!
Same old shite!

 

Same old leaver evasion

Again the constant problem is that NOT ONE leaver seems able to actually explain in any rational or reasonable way why leaving would be good for the UK.

In fact everything points to any Brexit been a bad thing for the UK – let’s take the Boris deal for example - forecasts published by the government last year show an agreement similar to Boris Johnson’s settlement, which envisions striking a limited free trade deal with the EU, would strip 6.7 per cent from the UK’s expected path of GDP growth between now and 2034. That equates to making people on average £2,250 a year poorer by 2034.

Boris Johnson’s deal will cost Britain £130bn in lost GDP

UK significantly worse off under all Brexit scenarios – official forecast

Yes I’ll be told but that is just a forecast nobody knows what will happen but it’s the same in forecast after forecast based on statistical and economic analysis with nothing coming from the leave side but wishful thinking based on wishes.

It’s like them saying it’s ok to jump out of an aeroplane at 20,000 feet without a parachute because it will be fine and any forecast based on hight and the effects of gravity are wrong because nobody really know what will happen when you reach the ground.

 

The funny part now is;

Even if you get enough votes to force a general election; then even if opposition wins that with a majority to get a 2nd referendum; then even if remainers win that; then you'd have to magically turn the economy around enough so the whole issue of exiting the EU doesnt just flare up again in 5 years

Whereas the main problem with your economy, and the rest of the EU is the debt crisis; public and private.

Which I am saying NO government has the power to solve anymore; monetary policy doesnt work anymore with zero inflation and low growth. When guys like you, and most babyboomers are still blaming Thatcher

With a guy like Corbyn, who has a dream of a sea of social housing; endless suburbs of council flats in areas where people cant get jobs (we all know what happens with that) ...a guy like Corbyn some how has to win a majority, achieve his social housing scheme and at the same time cut government debt and somehow magically cut everyones credit card debt, mortgages and defaults on commercial loans...all at the same time

With what you just posted, the first link

1) Do you think anyone is really going to buy economists forecasts for 15 years

2) If remainers get their way but havent reversed that kind of figure in 5 years, what do you think is going to happen?

5 years of a labour government that manages to remain, but ends up making things worse....will you still be blaming Thatcher, right wing (as opposed to left wing) neo-liberal policies from 40 years ago. I have no doubt you will

5 years from now, babyboomers will be 60 to 80, half of them dropping like flies or in nursing homes

 

Repeating things already covered rather than addressing the criticisms of them.

Leavers seem to opt out of debate altogether or they just keep repeating arguments or giving opinions that they were unable to defend from criticism the first time they presented them.

As has been explained many times the supposed ‘issues with the EU’ many leavers talk about are mainly made up concepts pushed by certain politicians (of right and left) and the mainstream right wing media.

If the ‘issues’ are actually examined they fall apart, in fact the majority of issues raised by leavers turn out to having nothing to do with the EU at all and are due to UK domestic policies based on neoliberal ideas that have been followed for over 30 years.

The reasons behind private and public debt in many places in the world for example go back to the financial crisis of 2007-09 brought on through neoliberal deregulation of the financial sector and that was exacerbated in the UK because of ill-conceived ideologically driven neoliberal policies that put an unnecessary drag on the general economy while having a deleterious effect on the UK’s social cover which the right wing them blamed on migration and the EU which as William Keegan the economics journalist puts it played no small role in the outcome of the 2016 referendum

This has all been covered before and in detail.