Brexit

Can economists’ forecasts be trusted?

Some leavers argue that because nobody can predict the future we should just disregard such things as economic forecasts

But to repeat yes nobody knows exactly what will happen but multiple studies indicate that any form of Brexit will have an adverse effect on the UK’s economy and future prosperity (at least for the majority of people) even pro-leaver economists like Patrick Minford admit that.

But what we get from many leavers is just wishful thinking based on wishes, just close your eyes and jump and hope you land on pillows rather than the rocks those with their eyes open can see.

 

So nobody can forecast 15 years ahead, except the ones that fit in with your negativity

 

Beyond Brexit

Actually it seems many are looking into this, the problem is that although it is believed all forms of Brexit will have an adverse effect on the UK, the type and form of any Brexit will determine just how bad it will be even the best outcome which would be if Brexit were cancelled would also have its own adverse effects (with the damage already done).

But there are people and groups looking into it for example the National Institute of Economic and Social Research is preparing a publication called Beyond Brexit: A Programme for UK Reform.

So taking again the Boris deal as an example - forecasts published by the government last year show an agreement similar to Boris Johnson’s settlement, which envisions striking a limited free trade deal with the EU, would strip 6.7 per cent from the UK’s expected path of GDP growth between now and 2034.

So there will be shrunken tax base with the government taking on more responsibilities (more costs) and with a degraded and degrading social and public infrastructure (after years of austerity) and in answer to this the neoliberal plan is for tax cuts for the more wealthy. Although Boris has been promising a lot of electoral jam that reminds me of the words on a certain red bus that got forgotten after the win.

It’s clear that what the neoliberals are dreaming of post Brexit is a low tax (for the rich) deregulated (cutting workers’ rights etc) and more privatised (bye bye NHS) England (to hell with Scotland and NI).

That future might serve the interests of a few but it certainly doesn’t everyone else.

 

Where is the leaver analysis?

The research and analysis by multiple groups and even the government’s own studies all highlight the adverse effects of all types of Brexit, they may disagree on the severity but all indicate it will be bad.

UK significantly worse off under all Brexit scenarios – official forecast

 

So, debt exists because of "neoliberal deregulation" exacerbated in the UK because of "neoliberal policies"

Could you re-write that so it doesnt sound like its written by a 14 yr old?

At this point I am wondering who you think your audience is

 

Where is the leaver analysis?

If becomes very striking just how little rational analysis actually comes from the leave side they spend more time trying to insult or threaten those that don’t agree with them than they do trying to explain in any rational and coherent way why Brexit would be good for the UK, and once looked at it quickly becomes clear that the reason for this is because they don’t have any rational or coherent arguments.

 

Where is the leaver analysis?

For virtually all measures going through Parliament the Treasury usually produces an economic assessment, especially where measures are likely to have direct economic effects. This kind of analysis is given to help MPs judge whether to support such measures.

The chancellor Sajid Javid has refused to have such an analysis of this deal saying the Brexit deal is “self-evidently in our economic interest” although as said most independent groups that have looked into it say it will have an adverse effect.

It is believed that Javid has refused to have an ‘official’ government analysis because it would come to the same conclusion.

 

Why the problem

What we have is two forms of democracy in conflict

1) Representative Democracy – where people vote for someone (usually in a political party) based on the detailed policies that have been put forward to tackle multiple issues.

2) Plebiscite Democracy – voting Yes or No on something with no detail over one issue.

So you have people that would vote for a party base on the first but on the second be in conflict with that party.

We have those that are Conservative voters that are for remain and Labour voters who are for leave

The thing is that Representative Democracy is based on the idea that the representative works in the best interests of the voters, but in Plebiscite Democracy it doesn’t matter about what is best for the voter it is just a matter of implementing what has been asked for.

So do representatives push for what they think is best for the people they represent or to implement what has been asked for by voters even while believing that isn’t in the voter’s best interests?

The conflict between these two forms of democracy have been shaking the UK’s political system apart.

 

What has been done to try and deal with the problem

To carry on from the above

Political leaders have been trying to cope with the conflict described above in different ways.

Corbyn has tried to sit on the fence, in the hope of trying to placate both sides through the representative Party system, saying he could get a left wing deal and then later saying he would then put that to a second vote. It has ended up with him and the Labour party been mistrusted by all sides of the Plebiscite vote.

Theresa May also tried to conform to the representative party system and appease the differing wings in her party, the hard leavers and the moderate ones and the one that wanted to remain, that didn’t turn out well because there was no detail as to what leave meant and so there were many often contradictory versions of leave, and her version of a deal could never appeal to all of them.

The Boris Johnson/Dominic Cummings led Conservative Party seems to be dealing with the problem by dumping the old version of representative system and trying to embracing the plebiscite. So they have been trying to circumvent the conventions of representative democracy while basically purging the Party of anyone that is opposed to the results of the plebiscite.

I think they hope by doing this they can get the support of leave voters that would usually vote for other political groups in enough numbers to get them over the line in a general election, and I’m afraid they could be right, but if they do I don’t think it would bode well for the future of any type of democracy in the UK.

 

Spot on!

 

Where is the leaver analysis?

If becomes very striking just how little rational analysis actually comes from the leave side they spend more time backing up each other’s nonsense in insulting or threatening those that don’t agree with them than they do trying to explain in any rational and coherent way why Brexit would be good for the UK, and once looked at it quickly becomes clear that the reason for this is because they don’t have any rational or coherent arguments.

 

TBH I don't think they are that bothered about the after affects of leaving the EU.

 

Collapse of the EU and end to socialism in Europe, fingers crossed

 

Where is the leaver analysis?

If becomes very striking just how little rational analysis actually comes from the leave side often they seem driven by blind hatred and bias that has no basis in rational thought so it is then not surprising that they are unable to explain in any rational and coherent way why Brexit would be good for the UK.

 

Is this a self portrait or a family photograph ???

 

So where is the leaver analysis?

If becomes very striking just how little rational analysis actually comes from the leave side often they seem only able to post silly asides or pathetic attempts at humour to cover the glaring fact that they are unable to explain in any rational and coherent way why Brexit would be good for the UK.

 

It needs to be asked

If leavers have no rational reasons for thinking the UK will be better off leaving – why do they want to leave?

 

Because the stupid bastards swallowed hook, line and sinker the 'nasty party's' propoganda about how 'immigrants' were causing problems for the NHS, Social Security and Housing.

 

Bird brain!