Canadian Federal Election 2011

Actually, in looking at the numbers, what would be really good, and is possible to happen, would be a NDP/Liberal/Green, 80/74/1 with the green being Elizabeth May...

 

Yep, I agree.

But wouldn't Duceppe be in on that deal if it were to happen? That could throw a wrench in the gears.


If Harper gets another minority and doesn't get the confidence of the house, that's what will happen is it not?


If Harper does get another minority, I'd be very interested to see how the other leaders go about approving his budget and whatnot. It would really show their true colours. I have the feeling they don't really disapprove all that much of Harper's buget, they just saw a chance to get elected and they pounced on it.

Not that I care. I want Harper the fuck out of Canada.

 

In the scenario I stated, no, the bloc would be irrelevant... The three together would have 155 seats, enough to push anything through...

That doesn't mean that the bloc wouldn't have any say, just it may not effect anything.

If harper gets a minority, and a combination of the liberals, ndp and greens (not the bloc) had the numbers, they WILL form a coalition government. It may not be called that, but they will..

If the greens don't get in, and the ndp/lib need the bloc to form the government, I'm not really sure what will happen.

I'm not really sure what will happen if the oppositions can't make an arrangement between them... Calling another election right away could have some very... odd... effects...

If it were to happen, I would almost bet the liberals would have a very quick leadership race to replace iggy... layton would run again for sure... I'm not sure about harper... he could be turfed if he doesnt get a majority...

 

I thought you posted a link, perhaps in another thread that showed the cons had the numbers to pull in a majority.

Anyways, Layton has said that he will not work with Duceppe. If he won't work with Duceppe, a coalition is out of the question (the Green party just doesn't have the numbers). Which has lead me to believe that if and when (judging by the polls) Harper wins another minority, the Liberals and NDP will be more than willing to bend when it comes to the conservative budget. I can't imagine that they'd call another election...

Yes, Iggy would most certainly be replaced. The Liberal party is cut throat. If you can't win an election, they don't want you as the head of the party, you're gone. Layton's in it for the long haul (given his health is alright) and Harper, I don't know, but the conservative party would be pretty damn stupid to keep him as leader.

 

The polls I showed with a con majority were based on a different set of polls. Seat projection based on polling is almost purely subjective... When the polls first come out, most things you will see will be based on national numbers (hence the lib dropping and ndp coming up gave the balance to the cons), but once they are worked to a regional level they start showing which seats will go where...

Or to put it another way... its bullshit on bullshit... lol

As for what I was saying above... if you look at the article I linked from themace.ca, he predicts (based on the numbers so far);

That's 154 seats... With one seat from the green party (Saanich), thats 155...

 

That's enough for a majority between them. Even if a coalition doesn't happen, Harper won't have enough seats to be all that active in the next four years.

 

The Canadian Auto Workers (largest private sector union in Canada) has come out in support of Elizabeth May in the Sannich riding...

Now that is very very cool...
http://greenparty.ca/en/node/18216

 

http://www.techeye.net/security/canadian-conservatives-promise-big-brother-laws

What bothers me most about all of this, is considering harper and the cons habit of hiding the bad things from us, if they are being open about this stuff... what is coming behind the scene?

 

http://www.techeye.net/internet/pirate-party-offers-vpn-to-the-repressed-of-canada

 

EKOS has released a seat projection based on polls from the 23-25

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2011/04/ekos-seat-projection-april-26-2011/

Cons - 133
NDP - 97
Liberal - 64
Bloc - 13
Green - 0
Other - 1


If they got it right, that means an NDP government with Liberal backing.

 

155 is a majority, is that correct?

Based on that seat projection a coalition will not be in the works. Perhaps the other parties will bend to Harper's will once he gets another minority.

 

I think you may be mis-understanding something here...

If one party gets 155 seats, they have a 'majority government'.

A minority government is when a party doesn't get 155 seats by themselves, but can get enough non party members to support them to 'gain the confidence of the house'

That does not have to include the part that holds the most seats.

The NDP and Liberal together (in the prediction), have 161 seats... they would from the government.

Well, assuming the liberals agreed, which they would.

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ins...to-plant-bogus-ignatieff-photos-with-qmi.html

What a bunch of low down slimes...

"Here's a picture... We can't confirm that it is Iggy, but it 'could be'."

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/2011/04/27/18071406.html

This is how harper and his crooked cons operate....

Throw the bums out!

 

Lunar, you mentioned about that blogger who got fined for posting results last election...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/can...-canada-old-blackout-law-twitter-results.html

 

As long as the non-con parties can muster up 155 seats between them, harper will fall.

Of course.. now we are approaching numbers where we could get screwed by the liberals... If the NDP become the official opposition, the liberals may try to back harper instead...

If that happens, count on another election within 2 years again if not sooner.

 

Daily average poll from http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

 

A word from Marc Emery.

http://www.cannabisculture.com/v2/node/27009

 

Here we are two days before the election.

I truly hope that everyone really does get involved in this election.

For all those that claim that elections are a farce and that they are all part of the same group anyway and it doesn't matter.

If you truly believe that, then there is no harm in you getting out and voting and you can forever tell people that you can say whatever you want about the election and politicians, because you at least voted.

Think about it... if you are right.... then it doesn't matter anyway... If you are wrong, you are responsible for handing the country to the very people who are at the lead of the charge AWAY from the world you want.

It's easy to just shrug and say, fuck it, it doesn't matter...

and that is precisely why the world is in the boat it is now... because too many people, too often take the easy way out.

It is your life and your children's lives, now and in the future.

If harper gets his way, there will be no money for any programs other then building the military, jails and the cons pocket books.

Think about it this way.

harper just gained the endorsement of the mayor of toronto...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/04/29/ford-harper-endorsement866.html

Here is an example of what this guy is like.

He supports harper...

Is that the type of person that you agree with?

I was under the impression there were too many cars and not enough bikes on the roads... and with the rising costs of fuel (under harpers mis-management) it seems a really backwards attitude for a politician to be spewing no?

Get out and Vote in 2 days, May 2nd 2011.

It is a few hours out of ONE day... but it has repercussions that could be felt for decades.

 

The latest polls show NDP support (30%) 5-8 points behind the Conservatives who are sitting at 35-38% of the popular votes. The Liberals are sitting at 22%.

 

BREAKING NEWS!


Harper NOT born in Canada!

http://sentineldispatch.blogspot.com/2011/04/breaking-news-harper-was-not-born-in.html

There you have it...