Eleven Things to know if you source online

Notice that as security increases, so does stability? And security and chances of being busted are inversely related? My intention has never been to fear monger but rather to promote phase III techniques to lower phases. Rather than many who would promote unsafe techniques (like using coffee grounds to mask smell instead of vac bag, etc) either out of ignorant perpetuation of false information or intentionally misleading people to create false profiles / reduced resources for law enforcement (at the expense of naive people).

http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Drug+...lopmental+Smuggling+Model+Part+1-a01073956158
http://www.thefreelibrary.com/DRUG+...pmental+Smuggling+Model+(Part+2)-a01073956168

I will go through this rather large report and summarize the characteristics of the different levels of drug traffickers / organizations they have identified:



Phase One:

Move drugs mostly with in a single country
Move drugs primarily for personal use, and use of close friends, not primarily for profit
mostly inexperienced smugglers
very loose organizations of friends
High probability of being caught
bring small amounts of drugs into country if any, often move drugs within borders
Small groups of friends often pool their resources for bulk discounts

Members of phase I are usually grew up together in the same geographic area, although some of them may have moved to new areas with out the specific intention of smuggling

Often are addicted to drugs
Very strong sense of loyalty to fellow members leads to low rates of cooperation with LE and less snitching than phase II
Phase I smugglers often see themselves as oppressed by society, and hold the common belief and wish for all drugs to be legalized
Extended period of time between drug runs
Inherently unstable over time, often busted as they are the primary phase targeted by law enforcement
Often preyed upon by more experienced higher phase smugglers
Not likely to be oriented to any foreign countries traveled to in order to obtain drugs


Phase Two:

Profit is more of a motivation, networks supplied are significantly larger and less close knit than phase I networks
Have acquaintance level relationships with other smuggling networks and smugglers
Put strong emphasis on gaining larger networks and obtaining more and better sources for contraband
Put strong emphasis on gaining good reputation within their network
Organizations of phase II level frequently discuss trust issues among themselves and assure each other their unwillingness to snitch, despite having high snitch rates
Have the potential to become phase III organizations if they continue to develop with out detection by law enforcement
Organizations tend to be detected by law enforcement with in 3-5 years, with a mild risk of dissolving in this time frame if they do not advance to phase III
Utilize rudimentary intelligence techniques, such as surveillance on ports of entry
Utilize basic counter-profiling techniques, such as administration of anti-anxiety drugs to reduce behavioral signs associated with nervous smugglers
Willing to sacrifice naive mules to divert attention, by tricking inexperienced mules into smuggling in ways that are likely to be noticed while the true mules slip through
deal with dedicated phase III brokers but lack organization, funding and skill to work directly with phase III organizations
Begin to develop rudimentary specialized skills such as dedicated money launderers, intelligence and counter intelligence, mules, etc
Begin to skillfully recruit new members rather than dealing fully with long time friends as associates
High demands are placed on reliability and reputation becomes very important to sustain contacts with other phase II smugglers and organizations
Sometimes are groups of close friends evolving from phase I, sometimes are more loosely affiliated often by being members of the same gang , employer or "lifestyle"

Often times use legitimate employment characteristics to benefit smuggling (for example airline stewardesses, mail men, long haul truck drivers) and work their smuggling route into their business route

Often times create businesses for the entire purpose of smuggling drugs, or transform once legitimate businesses into businesses with the primary goal of drug smuggling
Usually members are career criminals focusing on smuggling rather than people who specifically focus on smuggling with out substantial criminal histories otherwise
Members tend to snitch readily
Due to strong trust concerns members often are required to commit serious crimes not always necessarily related to drug smuggling in order to gain trust
Regular shipments of drugs and drug runs, often following a pattern to minimize any potential dry time
Some phase II smugglers are independent contractors with no solid ties to any one trafficking organization
More likely to be willing to resort to extreme violence with other groups and with each other to settle disputes
Some phase II smugglers are likely to become combative with law enforcement ie: shoot outs, attacking police officers, etc
Mild risk of being caught, most phase II organizations are identified and targeted by law enforcement after three to five years of activity
Often have dedicated lawyers being paid in drug money
Sometimes begin bribing low level officials
Focus on smuggling, but some phase II smugglers also sell at street level themselves
Often have troubled pasts with family issues and legal trouble
Likely use drugs but are not as likely to be addicted as phase I smugglers
Often have highschool diplomas and some technical training and college but rarely have any college degrees
Many phase II smugglers have military experience, although they often have some infractions on their record for rule violations




Phase Three:

use smuggling as primary source of income
extensive experience with smuggling
dynamic and flexible organization
Organization creates firmly held dedicated roles for members: such as pilots, intelligence and counter intelligence, money launderers, etc
Phase III smugglers have often wanted to be smugglers for a long time, such as from child hood
Usually come from families where smuggling activity is encouraged or at least found to be acceptable
Typically phase III smugglers and organizations are strictly business with very little personal interaction between members and organizations
Often times are ruthless and willing to order assassinations to meet their needs
Are most vulnerable to attack when leaders or others in positions of power leave and need to be replaced
Phase III smugglers often wish to generate large sums of money and then retire into legitimate business
Have access to very large international distribution networks, do contracting with ethnic based phase III producers to distribute products
phase III producers often have strong ties to a single country, handle a very specific type of contraband and have strictly business interactions with phase III smugglers
Phase III smugglers often work with multiple ethnic groups and handle the distribution of product from source to customer and the distribution of cash from customer to source
Sometimes phase III smugglers have legitimate corporations with offices in multiple countries
Use sophisticated intelligence and counterintelligence techniques to both protect the group from law enforcement and to minimize lost product
Often subcontract 'operations' to multiple phase III specialty groups, including money laundering, transportation, intel and counter intel, etc
Often have dedicated contacts with groups that professionally manage bribes of government officials
Use military grade technology and equipment to assist in drug smuggling

Vacuum seal shipments of drugs, often using science to determine the time it will take for the substance in the vac bag to permeate the bag (have its smell be detectable) (I found it interesting they specify this as a criteria for phase III)

Distribute transportation over large networks of mules moving smaller amounts, although they are responsible for the largest amount of overall drugs brought into a country. Very rarely do they move the drugs themselves but contract out to phase II and sometimes I via brokers, although there are some phase III mules as well. Phase III organizations are often willing to sacrifice phase II and I smugglers.
Have group logos, often putting them on shipments of drugs
Do intensive intelligence gathering on law enforcement agencies

It is not uncommon for phase III smugglers and smuggling organizations to do independent contracting for legitimate governments, utilizing their black market skills for government tasks

In depth knowledge of law enforcement techniques used against smugglers

A distinguishing hallmark of the Phase-III organization is that there is discussion within the group about what to do when it becomes apparent that the organization is under surveillance by law enforcement. This is significantly different from phase I and II smugglers, who are unlikely to be aware they are under government surveillance until they are arrested.

Phase III smugglers have the lowest rate of drug addiction (and use), but they do likely have other addictions such as gambling, prostitutes, etc
Typically have above average to superior IQs
Frequently make use of forged documentation and stolen identities
sometimes have contacts in government federal police and intelligence agencies

Often have college degrees in business or political science, high ranking military careers or training in intelligence and counter intelligence, although some merely advanced through the phases from phase I to phase III and acquired their skills on the job

Are aware of law enforcement profiling techniques and smuggling models
Willing to sacrifice affiliated phase two and one smugglers in order to gather intelligence of law enforcement methods
Increase amounts of phase one and two smugglers in order to drain resources of law enforcement
Promote unsafe methods of smuggling to phase one and two smugglers in order to increase bust rates and drain law enforcement resources
Actively promote false information in an attempt to create biased profiles from the perspective of law enforcement
Specialize in a narrow range of contraband, often outsource from phase II and other phase III groups to get different sorts
Very rarely busted by law enforcement, when individual members are busted very rarely snitch and often vehemently deny everything

 

A 50/50 toss up was just of giving you a benefit of the doubt for your information model vs experienced data . Maybe I will rephrase us best by saying, when I toss coins they tend to head up regular once I find a lucky silver dollar. Generally your guess of circumstance wrt to the threat model in my own LL receipt is near correct, however I am contesting your call of "Consequence probability: Medium-high." Again this is in relevance to your call of secure people are less likely to be convicted - it wasn't the luck in the silver dollar at all I will grant. It was the act of having a silver dollar to toss, flipping over and over, which brings me to conclude Consequence probability for this Activity is IS NOT Medium-High. YMMV.

Professional roulette players have rules (read: systems), and dealers may know how to put the ball where they want regardless of a facade of randomness; there is a protocol for achieved goals. I knew better than the sender, and told them to never use the service they would only use; which resulted in a 'delayed delivery', and improvement in their shipping department. Professional roulette players know to watch the dealer at all times and walk away if they display certain behaviors. I don't accept the Russian model to the game either, suggesting it is only a 6-shot chance before you're done.

SIGINT is interesting to me, the others I've not heard of. PSYOPS, however is what I suggested your analysis is drawn as when I use scaremongering as a descriptor. If your goal is to make sure the ignorant masses or possible players step their game up, I wouldn't argue against that.

But I would qualify the statistics as some characterize the weather.... Whats the weather? Look out the window. Whats the forecast for tomorrow? Look at the satellite image loop from the past 24 hours and imagine its future. Or just presume the trained meteorologist 'knows' that it will be in the high 60s with wind gusts of 20mph from the east with a 75% chance of precipitation tomorrow afternoon in Toledo, and the odds on the wall in Vegas seem to suggest same. Over time, in many places, weather is variable - sometimes it is cold in the desert, and people may sunburn in the arctic. We could spin a headline to claim most anything, it has been said. For instance imagine a prominent figure being caught with some oxys, between their power and prestige, class and story, they might not be charged... While another person might as well go straight to jail and not pass go for years under same circumstance.

I appreciate your cliffs notes to three phases of smuggling, and say that I do not perceive the world in three colors of red, blue, and green. Using it as a 'purity test', I could at various times say I'm doing many things from many levels, simultaneously, and have purpled, polka-dotted, and many other creative things that rearrange the phases - these may be mitigated by a 100+ page manuscript that boils down to 'this might be what is generally happening' presentation. Also, there are points to the phases that may be contested through personal experience. But this would just be refuted by saying that because I 'flipped the coin' 99 times and it came up 98 head 1 tails, is not a typical experience; just one (possible, yet uncounted?) data entry to the total. Oooh the unknown X-Factor.

All the 'alert level warning' low, med, high are relative, vague, and inaccurate in some cases if I would bother expanding. It is also fuel for fear and tension to many/most I'd say. I hope it directs people squarely towards the concepts of security instead of being blissfully ignorant of the ACTUAL contents of every parcel and person in movement all the time. It seems so commonplace these days for people to buy their medicine online, and/or overseas.

Everyone study the laws in your Nation/State/City, and relevant judicial outcomes too! A more dedicated lookout would archive every available record as it is put up online for 'first responder'/'enforcement' bulletins. Combined with timestamped radio tapes; over a period of time it is possible to become very acquainted with the local demeanor (this one neighbor likes to call in teenage drinking parties) of who works which shift or who is pulled over where at that moment, cross-check databases... Warrants outstanding, sex offender registry, state or federal criminal records, court calender, state and local press releases and blotters are things I save daily, weekly, or as published. In the USA, Judicial or Legislative changes may alter the behavior of the department of an enforcer.

However, people are people, and I'd guffawed at newspaper quotes that say the local or state department WILL NOT bother doing the job that another group is budgeted and assigned toward. Not everyone in on the "International Task Force" is immune from Internal Affairs, as one cop may fuck their partners wife, or more commonly(?) steal the watch off a dead/arrested suspect. Maybe find out after Chiefs retirement that as well as being presented with a note of honor for long service, it is now clear they were the most successful players in their district, with license to shut down any competition.

I recall once hearing a 'good enforcer' say that their model of perfection is simply mirroring their perp./offender. A veteran player once told me you have to think like a cop, and know their behavior patterns, to exist outside their perceived box as a survival measure.

This may be a fine basis for a book but I can see it needing many editions as things change, and allowed enough proofreading - would maybe appear as if authored by someone else after that input is gathered?

 

I agree with you Binary. It is MUCH better to be safe than sorry. If you can rotect yourself to the fullest degree and choose not to ,you're just being ignorant. p.s. you sound like an English PhD with your intellectual analogies.