Peak Oil Production - Happening Now

The trends in motion dictate a downsizing of the oil corps.

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/fr...2_campbell.html

The majors are merging and downsizing and outsourcing and not investing in new refineries because they know full well that production is set to decline and that the exploration opportunities are getting less and less. Who would drill in 10,000 feet of water if there were anywhere else easier left? But the companies have to sing to the stock market, and merger hides the collapse of the weaker brethren. The staff is purged on merger and the combined budget ends up much less than the sum of the previous components. Besides, a lot of the executives and bankers make a lot of money from the merger. -- Colin Campbell

 

They can't pump any more than they are and in fact 82 million barrels a day is the ceiling.

http://www.infoshop.org/inews/stori...4/08/24/1953830

'Never again," the Texas oil baron and corporate raider T Boone Pickens announced this month, "will we pump more than 82m barrels."

I have also read the Saudi's saying they can't pump any faster. In fact they're going backwards pumping approx. 400,000 less barrels a day and it may well be even less barrels now. A third down the page it says:

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/news/35885.html

Despite pledges to increase its output, Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest producer and exporter, produced about 9.13 million barrels a day of oil in July, down from 9.52 million barrels a day in June, according to Petrologistics.

Why do you think the price has gone up? Because demand is outstripping supply and the supply just can't do it. Don't hold your breath on increased supply rate. It is now a well known that you can't expect cheap $30 barrel oil again.

 

The production will not increase, but decline geologically, and the barrel will increase in price. The only people who will get hanged will be the non-elite. Who do you think got the raw deal when Argentina caved in? http://www.verdant.net/argentina.htm

I'll save you the time, the poor and the middle class were $hafted. Similar economic catastrophe will pend on which nations brace best to the end of cheap oil. The US is not one of those nations. The ones at the bottom end of the economic chain will hurt first as it eats up.

 

Wrong. I have already provided the info.

You're in America, and you think it's apples, because you're not really seeing it on the bowser. Point is, it's rumoured Bush has asked the Saudi's to cut him some slack for his November election so he can keep the gasoline prices down and win votes. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4779686/

Wait 'till after the election.

 

The last "drop" will be when no one can afford the price of it. At what price per barrel can the US cope with, without it imploding her economy? That's the question you should ask yourself.

 

It's at ceiling now. The ASPO figures trend a 3 to 5% decline in oil production per annum after peak. If peak is 2008 and you're looking at prices near $50 a barrel, think what it will be then and in each passing year.

http://www.intnet.mu/iels/Energy_consid.htm

From the work of Campbell (2000), Laherrere (2001,2002), Deffreyes (2000), it is becoming apparent that soon a peak in oil extraction will be reached, sometimes around 2010. Following a short plateau, yearly extraction should decline by 3 to 5 % till the extinction of the oil industry into the far future. Gas production is expected to increase till 2020 and thereafter decline too.

 

The peak in all oil discovery was 1962. (that's a good link to read)

http://wwwistp.murdoch.edu.au/teach...erandprodn.html

Discovery peaked in 1962 when over 40 billion barrels were found. Production in 1997 was 26 billion barrels and increasing while new discovery was 6 billion barrels and decreasing, FIGURE 4

The largest oil fields found were 60 years ago. There was only 1 new oil field found in 2002, none in 2003 and probably none will be found this year (seeing there's not much of 2004 to go). Oil fields found in 2000 and 2001 are approx. 500 million barrels a throw, which is small chickens to the 82 million barrels the world burns a day. Point is, for every 4 barrels burned, they're only finding 1 barrel. This is with the state of the art equipment and best brains in the game. There's no more Cantarell and Ghawar sized fields to be found. Anything found will be small.

http://www.odac-info.org/

Over A Million Barrels Of Oil A Day Lost To Depletion

The world is now losing more than a million barrels of oil a day to depletion – twice the rate of two years ago – according to a new analysis published this month in Petroleum Review, the oil and gas magazine of the Energy Institute in London.

 

Blimey Mr_Soul,

You've given them all the facts !!!!! wow.

The end of the oil age is happening now and people need to know.

Its in the general interest of most people who make more than the average amount of money, to keep doing it right till the last minute, and not tell people.

News agencies don't tell people because if they did, their shopping habits would change significantly and then the News agencies would find themselves without advertising money very quickly !!!!


I urge anyone and everyone to just type "Peak oil" or "Oil production" or "Hubberts Peak" etc. etc. into any search engine and start making informed choices about your future.

we only have a matter of a year or two in my opinion. At best 3-4 years. then we need to be ready.


The stock market will collapse, millions of people will become unemployed....

 

Thing is, I don't know if I'm capable of sorting out what's true and what's not. How can I know for sure? I don't know shit about oil. But yes, what I mean is that none of these people on this thread are experts (right me if I'm wrong). If I want to find out the truth myself, I will go to the experts. I do put some thought into what everyone here says. I don't just blow you off because you're not "experts". I'm just a little weary. Sometimes things that are said conflict with each other.

 

you don't need to know about oil Tamee, what you need to know will be explained if they are good sites. you can tell an amature site from a professional one. you can tell a site advertising a book or trying to give you facts etc. etc.


Try some of these, but I would suggest you find things for yourself more and be more confident in yourself, your ability and your judgement. I'm sure your just as inteligent and reasoning as the next person.

ODAC - The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre
http://www.odac-info.org/

Life after the Oil Crash (Book review site, take with a pinch of salt but raises good questions)
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Introduction.html

Wolf at the Door (good site in my opinion)
http://www.wolfatthedoor.org.uk/

 

Well, thanks I'm sure that'll help me out. I guess you know more about this stuff than I do. I'm just expecting the sites who wanna trick me will do a really good job at trying to.

 

None want to trick you, but the point of most of them is to cause alarm so bear that in mind. Having said that, the topic is pretty alarming.

One thing to remeber is it is always better to know than not to know.

Ignorance is bliss, but knowledge means you can plan for the future, and if you have that knowledge, you will probably fare a lot better than someone who is completely unaware.

 

I know that it's better to know than not know. I never planned on being ignorant about it. I want to know as much as I can, I just don't know who's right.

 

Tamee, you are so right to be suspicious.

Not one of those web-sites started out with 'The reason oil production can't be increased is.....'.

Hidden in one of these web-sites was a single two-word explanation: capillary constriction.

Capillary action is like when kerosene is drawn up the wick of a lamp.

But they never say what the physical nature of the constriction is!

In my experience, if I put ten wicks in a single kerosene lamp, I draw that kerosene up and out 10X as fast till it is empty.

Moreover, I remember the Texas oil field where they had wells next to each other, behind each other, and in front of each other as far as the eye could see.

Causing the price of oil to drop to ten cents a barrel.

These web-sites are so funny.
They all have a hypothesis which they put into a graph, and then point to the graph as if to prove their hypothesis.

Pages and pages of interesting information, but they never get to the point.
Why can't the existing oil be pumped up and out faster?

In essence they just point to their graphs and say it can't be done.

I do believe that we do have an oil problem.

I just wish that some one could explain it with confidence, instead of trying to hide their lack of certainty behind a massive pile of verbiage.

Someone who really knew what they were talking about could explain it up front in a single paragraph.

We all know there is a problem, the question is simple what is the reality of that problem.

But trying to get a straight answer out of these guys is like pulling teeth.

 

The reason Oil cannot be pumped faster is due to the pressure of the oil field.

At first it is not capilary action that draws oil out of a well but the pressure in the Oil Field. Capilary action is the final stage of oil extraction where oil will dribble out until the day the field is empty.

When you first Tap an Oil Field the pressure in that field causes the oil to gush out, Like you may have seen in films, but over time the pressure drops.

Once the pressure reaches a critical level the oil slows to a trickle unless you pump artificially keep the pressure up.

This is the Primary stage of Extraction.

The Secondary stage gets more complicated where you then start to Pump in water to keep the pressure up in the oil field. this initially works well as Oil floats on water so the oil stays at the top and comes out first.

But again as Time passes the water starts to mix with the remaining oil and coming to the surface and as more and more of the stuff being pumped is a mix of water there is a critical point where it becomes too costly and there foe uneconomical to keep getting oil from that source.

There are several tirtiary Method for extracting Oil but they are almost always very costly.



Whatever you do, oil allways flows fastest in the primary stage of extraction, and Hence a peak and inevitable decline in production from any well. And when you add them all together you get a total for peak and decline of any region, or indeed the world.


The US is recorded to have peaked in 1971, in its Hayday producing some 15 million barrels per day, it now only produces around 8 million barrels per day and that is including some significant finds in Alaska since then.


Non OPEC oil production peaked in 1999 when averaged out, and all the debate now rages about how long OPEC can continue to pump at this rate. Either way, OPEC ideally will be asked to increase production to ofset decline in other areas, but almost all speciallists doubt that they have the capability to do this still.

Ghawar, the biggest Oil field in the world, in Saudi Arabia has been running Primary and Secondary production techniques alongside each other just too keep production up this long!!! It has produced 55 billion barrels so far and many estimate its total recoverable oil at 60 billion barrels (about 2 more years before total shut down)


I will come back with links to back this up but I will have to re-find them and its taken time reading from a variety of sources.

The Links posted above aren't the most technically detailed but they are designed to be an introduction to the topic, from where you can take up your own research.

 

Thank you Goldfishbowl42!!!


Finally someone gives a straight answer to a simple question!

Allow me to give you a gold star for clarity of writting.

Of course, pressure, why didn't I remember that?

And why couldn't those goofy websites spell it out as consisely as you just did Gfbowl?

Still, I have mixed feelings about this situation.

Even though I have chosen a minimalist lifestyle that consumes very little of this oil-based economy, I can't help but feel a little concerned about the fate of the billions who are so dependent upon industrial civilization.

Gfbowl, what do you plan on doing about this situation?

Your on a highly oil-dependent industrial island, and if I was in your shoes, I would feel as vulnerable as a rat on a ship sinking in the middle of the sea.

 

Look, like Ivan Illch pointed out in Energy and Equality during the last oil crisis if oil stoped flowing today there is nothing stoping humanity from using muscle power.

If oil gets too expensive you'll see the horse & buggy come back, you'll also see a boom in bicycles. So transportation is covered as for energy you have winds,solar and other but you still can burn other fuels wood,coal,ect (not enviormentally sound but would still work)

 

Thats a difficult question to answer quickly so this will probably be another long post sorry, but bear with it.




This situation requires 2 plans.

If governments react to this situation wisely then people will become unemployed but Jobs in other industries that are capable of function on a more local scale will come in. We will see a sustained depression and things will seem bad compared to how we live now, like theres no tomorrow. Society need not break down.

However, if we don't react well, and the way we are acting now suggests it will go worse than it could at best. If the economy seriosly collapses, people will start to starve in Briatain and fight for their survival. In that situation head for the less populated areas such as Wales or Scotland, or Ireland if you can get there.

I would like to belive that as the crisis begins to hit we will realise what needs to be done. We will hopefully elect leadership that knows what to do. We will also as voters need to accept quickly that a jump in voting faith is required and we need to start electing Green political parties. Not just in Britain but all over the world.

Our governments will need to prioritise certain aspects of the economy and try to employ people in these sectors.

Immediately we will have to ration oil at a subsidised price to agriculture and public services to maintain a structure, even if a simplified one.

Renewable energy technologies need a high priority. Wind, tidal and Solar could create millions of jobs if subsidised and pushed heavily. Unfortunately some Nuclear may need to be built to help bridge the gap to a high enough renewable energy economy. But they should be few and of the safest designs know. We need to start think about the generations that are going to have look after them.

Governments will also have to secure certain banks etc. much like they had to in the great depression of the 1930's to reasure the markets.

There are many things governments will have to do to help muddle through and recover from this. The important thing is that they take us in the right direction.

The trouble they have is that if you raise the alarm to early before this happens you will lose out in the short term and our electoral systems don't allow for that.

The realistic view is things will have to get worse, before they get better.



I at the moment am working to raise awareness of this issue through the Green Party in the UK but I am not even a city councillor or anything. I'm just a local active member. I am trying to get the film "End Of Suburbia" shown in our next UK AGM as a workshop/discussion article in one of the afternoons.
I have put information on the matter on our local website and there are signs people higher up in the Green Party are aware of the matter.

The more people that are aware, the more likely we will make sensible choices when the time comes as a nation and as a world.


Just like life normally, the future will happen and we as individuals and as a species will need to deal with it. But knowing what the future holds, helps you plan for whatever it may entail.

I don't really know what I'm going to do but I have a better idea than people who do not know the changes that are due in the next few years.

 

Psy Fox,


I hate to break it to ya bro, but before you ever see these pampered american yups in a horse and buggie, you'll be seeing the Marines up close and personal as they squeeze ever bit of oil and natural gas out of Canukastan.


Goldfishbowl,

Assuming that the Greens and Labor cancel each other out, what do you think the crisis would look like under a Conservative government.
'Once more around the block Jeeves!'

 

Under a conservative government, things would be worse.

They would probably reduce taxes to try to stimulate the ecconomy, which would help very short term but would very quickly just be eclipsed by unemployment and wages falling far behind fairly high levels of inflation.
People would feel better off and spend more in the short term but that would only really make things worse.

Ultimately whatever government will have to do certain things and if they are either of the two mainstream Parties they will probably dawdle and react slowly to what people complain about.
The Liberal Democrats in the UK would be a much better choice as they have blended some Green politics into their party and policies. They would react more premtively and try to get things off the ground.


In times of depression you need a social government that belives in getting involved in the problems of its countries and creating jobs and sustainable infrastructure.

A Party like the Conservatives believe in staying out and letting the economy do it, which would be the worst attitude considering the economy has got us in this mess.

A lot of people will suggest that the economy can fix itself, but the evidence is otherwise. Generally in TIme of Depression, the Rich shut down and wait for the economy to come back before opening up businesses again. Which doesn't happen, unless someone starts opening up businesses again.

Ofgem is the consumer watchdog for energy prices in the UK. Energy prices from pretty much every firm has jumped up twice this year by about 10% each time. This is ainly due to the increase in wholesale gas and Oil prices going up.

Ofgem, instead of warning people why prices are going up and probably will a lot more, are saying "switch provider" and "the consumers are paying for a flawed energy market"

They are somewhere in the right vicinity but they haven't hit the nail on the head yet!

The market by itself might correct things and come back, but it would be a lot more brutal than if we try and help it along the way.