Predict the Future

Sorry, like I said I’m not an economist, could you explain a little more?

 

to find the Real GDP growth you must take inflation into account, so nominal GDP(the number or digit value that the GDP increase over a year) divided by CPI(or inflation rate) x100 gives you your Real GDP growth

you can never fully eliminate inflation, but there are standards which the government tries to keep it within, inflation isn't really a bad thing unless it gets out of control

the idea is for smooth and steadly increases in economic activity(or real GDP) with inflation that is kept under control

but you were kind of right, we had a nominal GDP growth for 2007 of roughly 5.0%, and - inflation of 2.7%=2.3% Real GDP growth

 

Thanx!

 

say we have 2% inflation compared to the base year, so 100 being the base we would have 102

say the economy produces 50$(nominal) a year(of economic activity) we want to find out the real GDP of the country, you do (50/102)=0.49x100=$49, so the economy only produced 49$ instead of the 50(which may seem small, but when you're talking a economy that has a gdp into the trillions it adds up)

 

*puts index finger in between lips, blows and makes blub blub blub sounds*

 

I don't get it

 

acga5,
I think Aristartle may be trying to say you lost her on that last turn.
But I have a question, is the base year always the same or is it sometimes changed, maybe just to make the inflation numbers look good?

Hope we're not getting to far off thread!

 

Wow, who says nobody cares about economics?

The "GDP Deflator" is a slightly different measure of inflation which is used to get you from nominal GDP growth (actual), and "real" GDP growth (inflation adjusted). Since the components of GDP change the GDP deflator has to change too, otherwise inflation would still include prices of 8-track tapes and buggy whips.

I just broke my own rule about debating economics!

Anyway come on you lurkers! 50 views and only three people made forecasts? What a bunch of wussies! Looks like the people I made this thread for - the ones going around saying how right they are about everything - are the ones least willing to go on record and make predictions!

 

I am wondering exactly what it is we export, jobs control of our infrastructure?

I am also wondering when more than 70 percent of GDP is consumer spending how that can continue to increase when wage earners are hit by a recession? How do you continue to increase consumption when more of your paycheck each month is spent on necessities?

You are wondering who is behind the NAU Acqa5. visit the SPP website and ask yourself who is sitting in on these meetings making these policies without Congressional oversight. And why is it my Congressmen seem to know nothing about it?

I have no intent of making a prediction or filling out a poll. It's been my experience that those things are used in many cases to adjust marketing.

 

If you refuse to make forecasts please go away. There are plenty of threads where you can discuss those other issues. This is not the "just drop in and ask random questions about anything so you can derail the topic" thread.

I can assure you this survey is not going to be used "to adjust marketing", whatever the hell that means. Its just a survey on HipForums for freak's sake.

 

"agricultural products (soybeans, fruit, corn) 9%, industrial supplies (organic chemicals) 27%, capital goods (transistors, aircraft, motor vehicle parts, computers, telecommunications equipment) 49%, consumer goods (automobiles, medicines) 15% "

the government is supposed to lower interest rates, which lower the general publics debt, and their monthly payments on those debts, also, through effective investment in the nation's infrastructure, this firstly represents an injection into the economy, and it starts a cycle of production/employment/increased income for which people can recycle into the economy over and over again (thats the problem with tax cuts, they are more of a political tactic, government spending is much more effective @ increasing GDP because the government will spend all the money whereas people have a MPS(marginal propensity to save) a % of the money they get through the tax cut. anyways that was the last off topic answer

I think right now the base year is 2000, so the cpi for that year would have been 100 (so if we had cpi of 105 during 2001 we could figure out the inflation rate) by.... CPI year 2-CPI year 1/ CPI year 2.... so 105-100=5/105=4.7619%

 

histastic you do a survey

 

Pressed_Rat, you too!

 

Sorry to get my predictions in so late.

1. Who is president Obama will win the democratic primary but McCain will win the presidency
2. Where is the S&P 500 (index level or % change from today) (S&P currently 1,288 for reference) 5% up. This is looking to me like a 2001 recession, i.e. very mild. I think we'll see a fall from here but within a year it will have recovered.
3. Where is the $/Eur (value or % appreciation/depreciation of DOLLAR vs today) (for reference it is about $1.57/Eur 1 today) I'm going to say appreciation from here, to 1.45. Fed is at the end of the rate cut cycle, Europe at the beginning.
4. What is the price of a barrel of oil (% change or $ value, today it is pretty close to $110/barrel) Under $100, lets say $99. Its getting a bit silly, plus dollar appreciation will bring it down.
5. What is the price of an ounce of gold (% change or $ value, today it is about $1,000/ounce) $800. Despite inflation fears. Stronger dollar, and investors will have less interest in chasing commodities. Its a bubble.
6. Have we attacked Iran? Yes/no. No. Even under Mccain.
7. How have civil liberties changed? Give some specific examples, no vague ranting. Yes, for the better. Neither Mccain nor Obama are going to let all the crap Bush brought in stand.
8. What is the unemployment rate? Currently it is 4.8%. 6.5%, mild recession territory. And lower than most European countries when their economies are healthy!
9. What is the inflation rate? Currently CPI is around 4.3%. 5%. Commodity prices will feed in, but the slowing economy will cool demand.
10. Will there have been another major terrorist attack against the US? Yes/no No
11. Will China's economy still be booming? yes/no Yes, but it will slow down.
12. Has a draft been implemented? Anti-war activists keep warning us about it. Will it have arrived yes/no. 100% certainty No. Nor will there be any plans for one.
13. Is there a NAU or an Amero? Ha ha. 100% certainty No. Nor will there be any real plans for either. Still just a conspiracy theory that will just keep moving the dates back so that its always just a few years away.
14. Bonus question: fill in your own surprising prediction, whatever, cure for cancer/global plague/aliens arrive/ etc theory, but don't say it unless you mean it. Things in Iraq will have improved.
15. ***Late addition: Please provide GDP growth forecast for 2008. I think current forecasts are for about 1% in 2008. Keep in mind a depression means a contraction of at least 10%; the worst the US has seen was an 18% contraction in one year (1937-8) or a 33% contraction between 1929 and 1933.1%. A negative quarter or two but then a recovery.

 

But that's only because you're a koolaid drinker. How can something be a "conspiracy theory" when it's been admitted?

Leaders push PR campaign for North American alliance

an internal memo from Canada's Foreign Affairs and Internal Trade ministry

Documents disclose 'shadow government': Indicate U.S. far advanced in constructing bureaucracy united with Mexico, Canada

Is the North American Union Conspiracy Theory Really Real?


http://www.cfr.org/publication/13192/end_of_national_currency.html


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/Page/document/v5/content/subscribe?user_URL=http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20071123.RDOLLAR23/TPStory/?query=%22Steven+Chase%22&ord=3670943&brand=theglobeandmail&force_login=true


http://www.cfr.org/publication/14534/regional_monetary_integration.html


http://www.canamex.org/publications.asp

 

Funny to see you on this thread since you haven't got the nads to make a few predictions.

Instead you just troll it with the same lies you force us to listen to over and over everywhere else! Can't you come up with something new?

Its been admitted - by who? Who admitted what? None of your copy and paste garbage shows anybody "admitting" (admitting, of course being the Alex Jones way of saying "said") to plans for an Amero or a NAU.

Its been pointed out to you countless times by countless people - if an academic says "we should have a North America currency" that doesn't mean there are plans for an Amero and it certainly isn't an example of anybody admitting anything.

Why can't you understand this? Is it really so complicated?

Why are you constantly lying to promote this conspiracy theory?

 

LOL.
You're the fucking troll who starts stupid "predict the future threads".

The future cannot be predicted by past and present events and actions.


I have a prediction for you.
You will end up getting banned if you keep trolling this site, punk. :jester:

 

I umm... see nothing wrong with trying to predict the political and economical conditions of the world, a particular country or the state of affairs.

That's like, the whole point of this thread. Not really about whether an NAU support exists, but the point of the thread is to determine whether it will actually come into existence in the near future.

Please, I agree with Hiptastic: don't troll the thread unless you want to discuss the predictions you've made about the conditions of the world in the next couple years. It's really quite a simple rule to follow.

 

Political and economic conditions, a particular country or "state of affairs" are complex systems subject to numerous variables. It is silly to say you can seriously make predictions of complex, highly dynamic systems with certainty and accuracy.



Therefore, this thread is nothing than a lame exercise, no different from mental masturbation and watching porn. :jester:

LOL.
How near is "the near future".

In some ways, in a sense, there already IS a North American Union. :jester:

LOL. The whole thread is a troll. :jester:

 

McCain wins this year, Hillary wins in 2012 by Nastraudamus' prediction.

Arnold wins in 2016 and again in 2020.

Lance Armstrong as a Democrat in 2024.