The Ukraine Crisis Part 2 . The Battle for the Donbas

I think the war is going to heat up to a new level. Ukraine needs more soldiers now that it is getting more weapons.

The evolution of the weaponry is as fascinating as it is deadly.

 

Well, they still have their prison populations left. Ukraine recently passed a new law that allows them to recruit prisoners to fight at the front. According to Ukrainska Pravda, current estimates place the available manpower from prison sources to be around 15,000-20,000 potential new soldiers.

15,000-20,000 prisoners could be mobilised to Ukraine’s Defence Forces – Ukrainian official

Yeah, talk about it. Here's an example of some of the new toys they've come up with during this war:

H I Sutton - Covert Shores

A Russian helicopter fought an unusual Ukrainian drone armed with heat-seeking missiles, war watchers say

News: Zelenskyi has kicked out SBU boss Serhi Leonidovitsh Rud.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/ze...ter-assassination-plot-foiled-decree-aeff6437

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/zelenskyy-fires-head-guards-foiled-plot-1.7199252

EU has reached an agreement on how to utilize the funds that were seized from ruϟϟia to benefit Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/eu2024be/status/1788202528607277533?s=46&t=BkmHnlnNt7rNw8NL38FUdw

Ukrainian drone has hit an oil refinery in ruϟϟia's Bashkiria region on Thursday after flying a record setting 1,500 kilometers (932 miles) to its destination.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...y-record-1500-km-away-source-says-2024-05-09/

In First, Drone Attacks Oil Refinery in Russia’s Bashkortostan - The Moscow Times

 

ruϟϟia is pressing its advantage. While I was gone during the weekend, ruϟϟia opened a new front in Kharkiv, north-east Ukraine and is now probing for weaknesses with plans to invade a buffer zone for themselves, and probably more later. ruϟϟia's plan is also most likely to force ukraine into moving troops to Kharkiv from other areas. Situation now also worsening near Chasiv Yar.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...sian-forces-attack-kharkiv-region-2024-05-10/

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/12/europe/russia-kharkiv-region-offensive-ukraine-intl/index.html

Ukraine facing ‘difficult’ situation in Kharkiv region, military chief says

Russians simply walked in, Ukraine troops in Kharkiv tell BBC

Germany is now considering the possibility of using air defence systems residing in NATO areas to shoot down ruϟϟian missiles in Ukraine.

German lawmakers suggest allies could protect sky over western Ukraine from NATO soil

Frankfurter Allgemeine (paywall, in German):
Ukrainekrieg: Was wäre, wenn Macron Soldaten schickt?

ruϟϟia is getting quite sloppy with their attacks:

 

ruϟϟia's advance in Kharkiv oblast has been stopped, for now at least. According to Kyrylo Budanov, Kharkiv region "is not catastrophic". This, however, came with the loss of 10 villages near the ruϟϟian border.

Ukraine war live updates: Russia must pay for Ukraine's reconstruction - Blinken - BBC News

Situation stabilising in Kharkiv Oblast, Russians didn’t enter Sumy Oblast – Ukraine’s intelligence chief

Yahoo is part of the Yahoo family of brands

Belousov: there will be no new mobilisation of ruϟϟian troops.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...ine-while-minimising-troop-losses-2024-05-14/

Shoigu and Patrushev dismissed as casualties and equipment losses mount.

Three reasons Russia dismissed Sergei Shoigu, its longtime defense minister - Breaking Defense

A bribery scandal could be the reason. Yet another senior ruϟϟian defence ministry official arrested on bribery charges.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...hr-detained-bribery-investigators-2024-05-14/

ruϟϟia keeps losing its aircraft.

Ukraine destroys $16M Russian "Alligator" attack helicopter

ruϟϟia puts submarine-launched Bulava intercontinental missile into service.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...rcontinental-missile-into-service-2024-05-14/

 

Elsewhere that might be credible, but corruption in the Russian MoD is more or less a job requirement. Maybe they took more than their cut in corruption?

I guess corruption and failure might be part of the reason, but Putin is also careful to not let anyone be a plausible replacement for him. He was careful to axe Shoigu supporters before putting the knife into Shoigu himself.

 

For sure. I've seen speculation that Patrushev might've gotten too powerful for his own good, so putler decided to take him too down a notch just to be on the safe side. The recent re-arrangements of his cabinet are meant to keep the people closest to him on their toes, so they don't start getting any funny ideas. It's a reminder that it's still possible to fall from putler's good graces.

 

Ukraine used ATACMS to strike ruϟ targets in Ukrainian Crimea. Belbek airbase was the target.

Russia's Belbek Airbase In Crimea Hammered By Ukrainian Long-Range Strike (Updated)

Let's Talk About Ukraine's Attack On Russian Radar Station, Air Base in Crimea with Storm Shadow, ATACMS

Crimea strike destroys two Russian MiG-31s, prized S-400 system—Report

ruϟϟia is using human shields in Vovchansk, Kharkiv. Civilian executions claimed.

Ukraine: Russia Keeping 'Human Shields' In Border Town

Ground assault: Ukraine battles to hold back Russia advance

Ukraine updates: US sanctions Russia, North Korea arms deals – DW – 05/16/2024

 

ruϟϟia has committed the equivalent of a large bank robbery on a state scale.

Russian court seizes two European banks’ assets amid Western sanctions

Russian court seizes millions of euros worth of German bank assets

Mikhail Khodorkovsky has a rather cynical view of this war's outcome.

x.com

putler is not trying to take the city of Kharkiv for now, but AFU troops' morale is for the first time properly shaking in what can only be described as hellish conditions, the result of frustration due to insufficient aid.

Zelenskiy says situation in Kharkiv under control but he fears second Russian attack

Zelensky Expects Russian Offensive in Northeast Ukraine To Intensify - The Moscow Times

New York Times about ruϟ weaknesses.

Opinion | Russia Has Opened Up a New Front. What Comes Next?

Poland to spend around $2.5 billion on securing eastern border.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...n-securing-eastern-border-says-pm-2024-05-18/

 

ruϟϟians have introduced a new subject in schools across the temporarily occupied territories (TOTs) of Ukraine: "Moral foundations of family life". During these lessons, students are taught about "ruϟϟian traditions and spirituality, and the pattern for the 'model family of the ruϟϟian federation', in which the man must be killed in a war, and the woman must give birth to new soldiers. They forget to mention in these lessons that the international criminal vladimir putin has a bunch of illegitimate children and abandoned his wife in the traditions of the ruϟϟian family."

Ukrainian children in temporarily occupied territories are being taught “Russian values”

Russians teach Ukrainian children "Russian values" in occupied territories - Euromaidan Press

Fighting fiercest in the Pokrovsk sector.

Fighting rages near Starytsia and Vovchansk in Kharkiv sector

Lloyd Austin: "the Kremlin's forces will try to make further advances in the weeks ahead and try to carve out a buffer zone along the Ukrainian border."

Remarks by Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III at the Opening of the 22nd Ukraine Defense Contact Group (As Prepared) > U.S. Department of Defense > Speech

Ukraine strikes Lugansk outskirts with French Scalp-missiles.

Ukraine’s military strikes Lugansk outskirts with French-made missiles — authorities

(pro-ruϟϟian site, hostile language)
French Missiles Attacked Civilians In Luhansk

ruϟϟia claims to have taken Bilohorivka, Ukraine denies the allegation.

Russia claims full control of Bilohorivka, Ukraine reports fighting around settlement

Russia says it took control of settlement in Ukraine’s Luhansk region

There's a rumor going around that Ukraine has once again scuttled two more ruϟ navy war ships. Not yet confirmed. Losing the other boat, Tsiklon, would be big if real, as it has the ability to launch Kalibr cruise missiles.

Rumors Swirl Around Attacks On Russian Black Sea Fleet Warships

"UK defense secretary calls Germany to provide Ukraine with long-range missiles."

UK defense secretary calls Germany to provide Ukraine with long-range missiles

Getting close to half-a-million now...



ruϟϟians will kill anything, even each other:



This war is killing off the ruϟϟian worker.




UK intelligence says Russia has labour shortage problems

 

The Moscow Times: ruϟϟia unilaterally decides to redraw maritime borders with Lithuania and Finland in the Baltic Sea.

The Moscow Times: Russia unilaterally decides to redraw maritime borders with Lithuania and Finland in the Baltic Sea - Euromaidan Press

Russia unilaterally decides to change maritime border with Lithuania, Finland in Baltic Sea

Russia unilaterally decides to change maritime border with Lithuania, Finland in Baltic Sea

 

Reuters: putin wants a ceasefire.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...re-current-frontlines-sources-say-2024-05-24/

Another worthless proposal. putin would simply use the time to re-arm and gather more troops for round 2. They're already hinting that he will not settle for what he has now.

ruϟϟia admits that the moscow concert hall terrorist attack was done by Isis.

Russia admits Islamic State behind Crocus Hall terrorist attack, still tries to blame Ukraine

Purges in the ruϟ armed forces continue: Vadim Šamarin arrested.

Deputy Russian military chief of staff jailed for bribery in latest arrest of high defense official

Ukraine aid packages finally shows on the front lines.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...shells-stop-russians-near-kharkiv-2024-05-21/

Ukraine struck a space radar station in Ukrainian Crimea.

Crimea ATACMS strike hits space radar station: report

Strike On Russian Strategic Early Warning Radar Site Is A Big Deal

There are plans to create a drone wall to NATO borders facing ruϟϟia.

https://www.rferl.org/a/drones-baltics-nato-wall-security-bilotaite/32962679.html

Czech Ammo Initiative Set To Send First Shells To Ukraine.

Czech Ammo Initiative Set To Send First Shells To Ukraine

 

Oh, ruϟϟia has the numbers, all right. That number is 500,080 and beyond. ruϟϟia has now lost over half a million troops, killed and wounded put together.

Russian troop losses in Ukraine reach gruesome milestone: Kyiv

https://index.minfin.com.ua/en/russian-invading/casualties/



Take it with a grain of salt, since both sides probably inflate their numbers, but it can't be that far from the truth. This shit's been a bloody mess.


ruϟϟia has found a way to disrupt GPS-guided US munitions, such as HIMARS and Excalibur GPS-guided artillery shells, making them less effective.

US-supplied Himars ‘completely ineffective’ as Russia jams skies with new tech

Some U.S. Weapons Stymied by Russian Jamming in Ukraine

 

ruϟϟia sees a sharp increase in the number of men with disabilities.

In Russia, the number of disabled people without legs has increased at a record level | Anti-imperial Block of Nations

Sweden pledges $1.25 billion military aid package to Ukraine. The deal includes swedish ASC 890 surveillance aircraft.

Sweden pledges $1.25 billion military aid package to Ukraine

Shmyhal: Kyiv expects to receive first F-16s this summer.

Shmyhal: Kyiv expects to receive first F-16s this summer - Euromaidan Press

Defense minister: Ukraine may receive first F-16s 'very soon' but half of military aid arriving late

Reuters: Viktor, age 37, spends his days just 800 meters away from the enemy ruϟϟians.

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-war-frontline/

ISW: Occupants plan to deport tens of thousands of Ukrainian children to ruϟϟia during the summer, to participate in what is called "Useful Vacations".

Occupants plan to deport tens of thousands of Ukrainian children to Russia during the summer - ISW | УНН

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-28-2024

ISW: ruϟϟians launch 4 mechanised attacks in Donetsk to test reaction. ISW also noted that "Putin grossly misrepresented the Ukrainian Constitution and Ukrainian domestic law on 28 May in order to further promote the Kremlin information operation claiming that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is no longer the legitimate president of Ukraine."

Russians launch 4 mechanised attacks in Donetsk to test reaction – ISW

Russia launches wave of mechanized attacks at Ukraine

613 prisoners join Ukrainian Armed Forces to serve as assault troops.

Justice Minister says 613 prisoners join Ukrainian Armed Forces to serve as assault troops

putler warns: "small countries should be aware of what they are playing with. This is a factor that they should keep in mind before talking about striking deep into Russian territory," putler said.

Ukraine gets more aid from Europe while Putin warns not to hit Russia

Ukraine gets more military aid from Europe but Putin warns of consequences if Russian soil is hit

 

Oh dear, it seems that putler's unofficial holiday residence in the Altai Republic of ruϟϟia has mysteriously burned down. How unfortunate.

Putin's unofficial residence in Altai housing 'nuclear bunker' burnt down in massive blaze: Report

Blaze destroys part of a Putin mountain 'palace' equipped with 'nuclear bunker' after months of mystery 'sabotage fires' at Russian facilities believed to be linked to Ukraine | Daily Mail Online

Seven boats destroyed in Ukrainian operation in Kerch.

Ukraine Situation Report: Claims Swirl Around Missile Strike On Kerch Ferries

Ukraine's night attack hits seven Russian vessels in occupied Kerch

 

“I saw a presentation made shortly before the full-scale invasion, where someone asked Mearsheimer
if Putin would invade Ukraine. He answered "Oh no, Putin would never be that stupid.”

Mearsheimer, Putin, ideology, and the war in Ukraine: A political discourse analysis
https://www.jbe-platform.com/docser...iff&checksum=B17BB5F8AC14C096DE329D6910BD3351

The two dominant positions on the Russo-Ukrainian war are very well epitomised by these two individuals. John Mearsheimer belongs to the camp of dovish international relations specialists who typically have no in-depth knowledge of the regions they talk about. Not surprisingly, they are often scorned by experts on the region, such as Timothy Snyder in this case. On the other hand, the very opinionated Russian hawk Garry Kasparov, now a Croatian citizen, sees the situation as follows: Victory for Ukraine = freedom for Russia. So Ukraine must win.”



Europe’s Security – Not With but Against Russia
Opinion: Europe’s Security – Not With but Against Russia

 

The Power of Siberia 2-gas pipeline from ruϟϟia to china has hit a slight snag. As in, it's still far away from happening after china tried stiffing ruϟϟia with gas prices (they wanted to pay less). Bad news for ruϟϟia's future energy revenues.

https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/russia-china-gas-pipeline-talks/?cf-view

Russia-China gas pipeline deal halts over Beijing’s price demands

Meanwhile, China exports more to ruϟϟia, including things they really shouldn't.

https://carnegieendowment.org/russi...sing-role-in-russias-defense-industry?lang=en

Sergei "bastard" Lavrov: "Any French military in Ukraine would be a ‘legitimate target’ for ruϟϟian forces."

Any French military in Ukraine would be a 'legitimate target' for Russian forces, Lavrov says

ISW: "Ukrainian forces struck a ruϟϟian S-300/400 air defense battery in Belgorod Oblast likely with HIMARS on June 1 or 2. ruϟϟian forces continue to abuse Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in violation of the Geneva Convention on POWs. The family members of mobilized ruϟϟian personnel continue to protest for the demobilization of their relatives. Ukrainian forces recently advanced within Vovchansk and ruϟϟian forces recently advanced near Lyptsi, Avdiivka, and Velyka Novoslika and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. The ruϟϟian military is reportedly forcibly sending ruϟϟian servicemembers who refused to fight to the front in Ukraine from ruϟϟia instead of standing trial for their refusal to participate in combat."

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian forces struck a ruϟϟian S-300/400 air defense system.

x.com

Vovchansk situation, Junw 2nd -2024
x.com

NATO has two to three years before ruϟϟia regains ability to launch conventional attacks, say Norway's top general.

NATO has 2-3 years to prepare for reconstituted Russian army, top Norwegian general says

NATO has 2-3 years to prepare for reconstituted Russian army, top Norwegian general says

Teenagers aged 14-17 from the TOT of Ukraine forced to undergo military training in ruϟϟia.

Teenagers from the TOT of Ukraine to undergo military training in Russia – Центр національного спротиву

Italy is sending a French-Italian made SAMP/T air defense system to Ukraine.

(Corriere della Sera, italian)
Armi all’Ucraina, dall'Italia una nuova batteria di Samp-t. Ma il governo traccia i limiti: solo per uso difensivo

US ammunition has arrived to the Kharkiv sector, and the results show.

https://ukranews.com/en/news/101061...rn-weapons-against-enemy-on-russian-territory

Ukrainians are hunting ruϟϟians in Syria as well.

EXCLUSIVE VIDEO: Ukrainian Special Forces and Syrian Rebels Decimate Russian Mercenaries in Syria

ruϟϟia has deployed the Malva howitzer system for the first time.

https://defence-blog.com/russias-new-self-propelled-howitzer-spotted-on-battlefield/

ruϟϟia's conflict in Ukraine has cost ruϟϟia its African weapons sales, allowing China to muscle in on the territory.

https://defence-blog.com/china-seizes-control-of-african-arms-market-from-russia/

 

France to send Mirage fighter jets to Ukraine.

France To Supply Mirage 2000-5 Combat Aircraft To Ukraine

France to supply Mirage 2000-5 jets to Ukraine, train pilots

 

ruϟϟia's progress in Kharkiv has all but halted thanks to US Himars.

Russia thwarted over Kharkiv after cross-border Himars strikes

Ukraine manages to destroy an ultra modern Su-57 fighter from the ruϟϟians.

Ukraine says it struck SU-57 stealth fighter deep inside Russia